#especially that part with des ignoring toms health
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any general headcanons for carrington ?
he is . my favorite fictional man rn . hope you don't mind me taking advantage of the fact that you like him as well and your asks always being open BKDCJSXBSN
Dude I LOVE seeing you in my asks dw!!! I haven't thought about my blorbo Carrington in so long I'm going to have fun with this <3<3<3
Doctor Carrington Headcanons!
Okay let's get this out of the way: he's not just an asshole for the sake of being an asshole!
The dude's so damn stressed all the time! Especially after what happened at Switchboard, he feels responsible because he's the second in command
That's one of the reasons Des trusts him so much. He's not good at lying or recon work but he is good at self-dicipline, planning, and being the only mature one.
Although I feel like he's always been a bit moody, even before all that
Given that everyone other than Des and PAM are basically children with guns (looking at you especially, Deacon) he ends up feeling like a parent to most of the other agents
And he really hates feeling like a parent
This is a bit out there so bear with me, but at some point before he joined the Railroad he managed to help a child. Maybe one who survived an Institute raid on a settlement? They were the only survivor and he took them under his wing.
Despite his best efforts the child died from a preventable cause, like an infection
It really hit him hard and despite his trauma around helping vulnerable people (especially children) he became a doctor so others wouldn't have to suffer like the kid did
Then the Railroad contacted him and you know the rest
He prefers working in the Railroad over anywhere else, though. He's very introverted and appreciates the familiar faces and quiet work environment, plus most agents tend to respect him purely because he's been working there for ten or more years
He has dyslexia. Don't know where this headcanon came from. I think it was me projecting onto him but then I made it Canon In My Mind when I vaguely mentioned it in my Carrington fic (heed the tags if you're gonna read)
He gets headaches often due to his dyslexia and the ridiculous amount of paper work he has to go through (where does Des even get all that paper and ink!?), plus a fair share of sleep deprivation, dehydration, stress...
Deep down he worries a lot for the other agents. If Glory dies (I refuse to let Glory's death be canon in my mind, hence the if) it permanently messes with him and his self worth
He gives off angry Sudoku player vibes. Glory or Des will be like "chill out it's supposed to be relaxing" and Carrington is losing his mind like "where the HELL do I put the DAMN FIVE"
A lot of fanon says him and Deacon genuinely hate each other but I really disagree
He respects Deacon a lot and recognizes that he does a lot more behind the scenes than anyone knows, but he also realizes just how much of a martyr he is and just how little he cares about his own health
In the past, whenever Deacon came back hurt or sick, Carrington would try to convince him to slow down, stop running into danger, and even open up about his problems. Needless to say it didn't work.
They've got something alike to a friendship going, though. Deacon teases him, all in good fun, and Carrington doesn't point out when he's limping around HQ, or when he "borrows" a stimpack or two from his desk. He just leaves out painkillers and antibiotics in hopes Deacon with "borrow" those, too.
I'm very... partial on his relationship with Tom or Des
I feel like Tom's got A Lot Going On and it's kinda fucky that the Railroad seemingly caused his schizophrenia (?) to develop and ignored it because they needed him?
Although if anything it sounds like Carrington was worried about his health and Des was the one to ignore it, hopefully out of ignorance and not purposfully. I can't imagine Des knowingly letting Tom fall into drug addictions and paranoia, and Carrington is vocal enough that he probably would have argued with Des if he knew it was getting that bad as well
I like to think he keeps a close eye on Tom either way. He's always trying to pick up books on mental health because he's mostly focused on physical health in his day to day life, and he's taught Tom some grounding strategies over the years.
#i know this wildly jumps between depressing and funny IM SORRY#poor guys just kinda fucked up and surrounded by goofy idiots who are also kinda fucked up#more people need to be talking about him I cant think all by myself#especially that part with des ignoring toms health?? i feel like it'd be interesting to go into when it comes to the railroads morality#focusing on synths over humans is one thing... actively harming their own agents to help their cause is different#OKAY im DONE RAMBLING im SORRY#fallout 4#railroad#doctor carrington#desdemona#deacon#tinker tom#headcanons
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“If parents and commentators were sometimes concerned about the safety of middle-class girls in city streets, however, they were increasingly concerned about the moral implications of ‘‘good’’ girls taking to walking the streets in such numbers. Fears of precociousness not only encouraged parents to postpone discussions of menarche, they also created a reactionary challenge— too late—to girls’ social freedoms. European observers had commented on the relative freedom of American girls from the routine restraints imposed on European girls for much of the century.
In his 1840 opus Democracy in America, Alexis de Tocqueville noted the early emancipation of the American young woman from maternal control. ‘‘She has scarcely ceased to be a child when she already thinks for herself, speaks with freedom, and acts on her own impulse. . . . The vices and dangers of society are early revealed to her; as she sees them clearly, she views them without illusion and braves them without fear, for she is full of reliance on her own strength, and her confidence seems to be shared by all around her.’’
With the expansion of northeastern cities following the Civil War, and the increasing presence of middle-class girls unregulated in the streets, a range of commentators began publicly to reconsider that confidence. One of the first broadsides in a newly intensified public debate about the character of ‘‘the girl’’ came from Britain and the pen of a journalist and clergyman’s daughter. Eliza Lynn Linton’s essay was notable in part because of its description of a modern type, not limited to one class.
‘‘The Girl of the Period’’ was published as a pamphlet in Britain in 1868, sold forty thousand copies from a single publisher, and first ignited a controversy there. Linton’s British ‘‘girl’’—in future debates known simply as the ‘‘G.O.P.’’—was loud, brassy, and disrespectful. She had traded in purity and ‘‘delicacy of perception’’ for the slang and the conspicuousness of the demimonde. Linton went on: ‘‘The Girl of the Period is a creature who dyes her hair and paints her face, as the first article of her personal religion—a creature whose sole idea of life is fun; whose sole aim is unbounded luxury; and whose dress is the chief object of such thought and intellect as she possesses.’’
Linton’s ‘‘G.O.P.’’ was ‘‘far too fast and flourishing’’ to listen to her parents, ‘‘indifferent’’ to duty, ‘‘useless’’ at home, and dedicated to the pursuit of money. Henry James, who later made the character of the American girl a subject of his fiction, reviewed Linton’s pamphlet in the Nation. He began by denying its relevance to the United States.
‘‘The American reader will be struck by the remoteness and strangeness of the writer’s tone and allusions. He will see that the society which makes these papers even hypothetically—hyperbolically—possible is quite another society from that of New York and Boston. American life, whatever may be said, is still a far simpler process than the domestic system of England.’’ In contrast to Linton’s portrait ‘‘of youthful Jezebels with plastered faces and lascivious eyes,’’ James offered the ‘‘large number of very pretty and, on the whole, very fresh-looking girls’’ of Boston or New York, ‘‘dressed in various degrees of the prevailing fashion.’’
James’s use of the term girl to refer to wholesome and respectable teenage females was an early instance of its contemporary usage. No sooner had James denied any comparison, though, than he began to warm to the task of finding similarities. He found American girls excessively devoted to the idea of being well dressed, which had ‘‘a sacred and absolute meaning.’’
A girl of fashion ‘‘is undeniably a very artificial and composite creature, and doubtless not an especially edifying spectacle. . . . She has, moreover, great composure and impenetrability of aspect. She practices a sort of half-cynical indifference to the beholder (we speak of the extreme cases). Accustomed to walk alone in the streets of a great city, and to be looked at by all sorts of people, she has acquired an unshrinking directness of gaze. She is the least bit hard.’’
James’s novel The Awkward Age (1899) took up the consequences of the ‘‘exposure’’ in public of British girls for their marriage prospects. As much as James admired the independence of ‘‘the American girl’’ (always to be considered as part of American elite), his hypersensitive self was shocked by the toughness of her exterior. Several years later another literary figure entered the debate over the impact of modernity on middle-class American girls.
Louisa May Alcott acknowledged Linton’s influence in the preface to her book An Old-Fashioned Girl (1872), a tale of a simple, affectionate country girl of fourteen who goes to live with a sophisticated and unhappy friend, a fashionable girl of the city. ‘‘The ‘Old-Fashioned Girl’ is not intended as a perfect model, but as a possible improvement upon the Girl of the Period, who seems sorrowfully ignorant or ashamed of the good old fashions which made woman truly beautiful and honored, and through her, render home what it should be,—a happy place, where parents and children, brothers and sisters, learn to love and know and help one another.’’
Readers first meet Alcott’s heroine Polly when Tom, the brother of the family, arrives at the train station to pick up his sister’s friend and lights in error on a passenger who might pass for a G.O.P. She is in gorgeous array, with ‘‘a flapping of sashes, scallops, ruffles, curls, and feathers.’’ The passenger, ‘‘a breezy stranger,’’ eyes Tom with a ‘‘cool stare that utterly quenched him.’’
Just as he is gathering his forces to initiate conversation, up runs our heroine, ‘‘a fresh-faced little girl, . . . with her hand out, and a half shy, half-merry look in her blue eyes.’’ Like Little Women, published several years before, An Old-Fashioned Girl celebrates the beauty of girls’ devotion to home and family and their rejection of the material, selfish world of the modern city. A comparison of titles, however, suggests an important difference in the implications of the two books for female adolescence.
In contrast to Little Women, An Old-Fashioned Girl encourages girls to hold on to their status as children, rather than embracing too early the roles and manners of women. The problem of the urban sisters Fanny and little Maud in Alcott’s novel is their precociousness. Fanny explains to Polly, ‘‘You are fourteen; and we consider ourselves young ladies at that age.’’ Alcott, in contrast, describes Polly as a ‘‘fresh-faced little girl.’’
In fact, the family’s grandmother suggests that her own granddaughters scarcely were ever children. ‘‘’You mustn’t mind my staring, dear,’ said Madam, softly pinching her rosy cheek. ‘I haven’t seen a little girl for so long, it does my old eyes good to look at you.’’’ Her own granddaughters, she explains, are ‘‘not what you call little girls. Fan has been a young lady this two years, and Maud is a spoiled baby.’’
Even Maud, at the age of six, has the accoutrements of maturity in the form of calling cards, crimping pins, and a ‘‘box of dainty gloves.’’ Alcott explains that Maud ‘‘belonged to a ‘set’ also; and these mites of five and six had ‘their’ parties, receptions, and promenades, as well as their elders, and the chief idea of their little lives seemed to be to ape the fashionable follies they should have been too innocent to understand.’’ Alcott is so concerned with demonstrating the folly of precociousness that she turns fifteen- or sixteen-year-old Polly’s interest in the attractive son of the family into an object lesson.
‘‘Polly shut her door hard, and felt ready to cry with vexation, that her pleasure should be spoilt by such a silly idea; for, of all the silly freaks of this fast age, that of little people playing at love is about the silliest.’’ Alcott’s fear of precociousness cuts such a wide swathe that she admits little distinction between the pairing off of six-year-olds and the infatuation of teenagers.
The explanation for the precociousness of girls is their involvement in a new peer culture, facilitated and expanded by attending school. When Polly asks Fanny why she spends so much time getting dressed just to go to school, Fanny responds, ‘‘All the girls do; and it’s proper, for you never know who you may meet. I’m going to walk, after my lessons, so I wish you’d wear your best hat and sack.’’ In Alcott’s novel the custom of walking, encouraged to provide girls with appropriate exercise, appears as a vapid excuse for socializing, especially in contrast with the health of children’s play.
Polly scorns it. ‘‘To dress up and parade certain streets for an hour every day, to stand talking in doorways, or drive out in a fine carriage, was not the sort of exercise she liked. . . . At home, Polly ran and rode, coasted and skated, jumped rope and raked hay, worked in her garden and rowed her boat; so no wonder she longed for something more lively than a daily promenade with a flock of giddy girls.’’ It is the strength of urban peer culture which leads to the unhealthiness and unhappiness—and the unlovableness—of the bored and fashionable Fanny.
Other commentators as well attacked the danger of precociousness in the rearing of girls. Washington Gladden, liberal clergyman and promoter of the social gospel, was persuaded in 1880 to provide advice for girls in St. Nicholas to complement an earlier article for boys. He censured ‘‘a too early initiation into the excitements and frivolities of what is called society. It was formerly the rule for girls to wait until their school-days were over before they made their appearance in fashionable society. At what age, let us inquire, does the average young lady of our cities now make her debut?’’ Like Alcott, Gladden dipped down into the early years to see the onset of preciousness. ‘‘From my observations, I should answer at about the age of three. They are not older than that when they begin to go to children’s parties, for which they are dressed as elaborately as they would be for a fancy ball.’’
If Gladden focused on the social folly of children forced into early maturity, for Mary Virginia Terhune the practice was evil: ‘‘We sin in allowing the fears, hopes and flutters of nubility to obtrude, even in imagination, upon this most susceptible stage of the formative period. There is vulgar violence in the excitation of coy tremors and coquettish projects in the mind of one who is as yet incapable of comprehending the meaning or tendency of the novel emotions.’’
Employing the earthy, agrarian metaphors which were one way of objectifying girls’ maturation, Terhune expounded, ‘‘Premature bloom is imperfection, too often deformity. Forced fruits lack the flavor of the summer’s prime, the beauty and richness of seasonableness.’’ If Henry James felt that girls were becoming hard from their exposure in the city streets, Terhune and others feared that they were becoming blemished or prematurely soft—a different kind of distortion of the ‘‘girl crop’’ that was everyone’s property.
The allure of city streets was only part of the story, though. Critics cautioned that weakening family ties helped to push girls into the streets. In Alcott’s accounting, and in the ongoing debate over the Girl of the Period, the declining authority of parents played an important role in the dissipation of girls. Alcott’s fashionable fictional family is headed by an absent father and an invalid mother.
Mr. Shaw is ‘‘a busy man, so intent on getting rich that he had no time to enjoy what he already possessed.’’ He has a habit of lecturing his son ‘‘and letting the girls do just as they like[].’’ Mrs. Shaw is ‘‘a pale, nervous women,’’ an invalid, defined by needs rather than by her ability to give. The family might meet for dinner, but after eating ‘‘they all [go] about their own affairs.’’ Whatever else was to blame, there was no question that the ‘‘girl problem’’ was in part the problem of urban parents losing control over their daughters.
When Washington Gladden addressed the problem of girls, he titled his article ‘‘A Talk with Girls and Their Mothers’’ because he felt the problem lay with both. The commandment that children should obey their parents, he asserted, was disregarded by both mothers and teenage daughters. ‘‘The girl of thirteen regards herself as her own mistress; she is already a woman in her own estimation, and has a right to do as she pleases.’’
Despite his strenuous support elsewhere for longer and more vigorous walking for girls, Gladden could not countenance the freedom of girls in the city streets. ‘‘This habit of running loose, of constantly seeking the street for amusement, and even of making chance acquaintances there, is practiced by some of the girls of our good families, and it is not at all pleasant to see them on the public thoroughfares, and to witness their hoydenish ways. . . . The delicate bloom of maiden modesty is soiled by too much familiarity with the public streets of a city, and a kind of boldness is acquired which is not becoming in a woman.’’
Gladden’s worry for the ‘‘delicate bloom of maiden modesty’’ reflected a legitimate concern for how girls’ culture was being influenced by urban freedom. An article published in Ladies’ Home Journal in 1884 took a different tone in reporting on ‘‘an epidemic’’ of disappearances of girls: ‘‘One doesn’t bring up a chubby baby girl to bang upon a grand piano, outdress other girls and graduate with nuns’ veiling and sixteen hired bouquets, to have some dark night bring a rascal and a rope-ladder to steal her away just when she is getting big enough to do the marketing and darn her father’s socks. . . . The sympathy of the entire world goes out to the bereaved owners of these pretty girls, spirited away.’’ Despite its glib and knowing tone, itself a radical break from the earnest, idealist rhetoric which usually accompanied such discussions, the article had a strong message for mothers:
‘‘The fact is, the mothers of to-day do not exercise enough maternal authority and vigilance over their daughters. . . . Female chums call for them to spend the night, and who they meet while absent from the home circle mothers never know.’’ The pull of ‘‘chums’’ drawing girls away from their mothers’ households was a far cry from the idealized intergenerational domestic world promoted by advisers. A signed article republished from the Congregationalist in 1889 explored the distance between domestic ideal and urban reality.
Mrs. J. G. Fraser titled her piece ‘‘Our Lost Girls’’ and subtitled it ‘‘A Mother Sadly Regrets That She Can Not Have the Training of Her Daughter.’’ Fraser exclaimed, ‘‘Alas! just as our daughters are entering their teens, or before, we discover that we have lost them. Where have they gone?’’ Her answer was clear. ‘‘It is a fact that the average girl is restless unless she can visit or receive visits from some young lady friend most of the time.’’ Such chores as a daughter might have ‘‘are hurried through with unseemly haste, to the end that she may leave home as soon as possible.’’
Informed by the dictates of domesticity, Fraser knew what her maternal role should be: ‘‘Sympathetic companionship, little seeds of counsel dropped wisely here and there, a knowledge of what the girls are thinking about and what they are interested in; a wise ignoring of some girlish follies—all these are needed.’’ But there was one problem in applying techniques of domestic influence.
If they could help it, girls were probably not at home to listen to their mothers’ advice. Fraser uttered a complaint with a contemporary ring. ‘‘Our homes should not be simply boarding houses where our children eat and sleep, but dwelling places where they are to spend most of their time out of school hours.’’ If they were to sustain the culture of the ‘‘old-fashioned girl,’’ mothers must take their daughters back from the streets and from the friends they promenaded with there.
Girls who appeared in public and walked the streets were historically ‘‘public women,’’ prostitutes. What distinguished the debates of the 1870s and 1880s was that they were not about prostitutes but instead about a more broadly defined and owned group of daughters. Not distinguished by class or profession, the G.O.P. was not a fallen ‘‘other’’ but instead a creature of modernity, created by the industrial city.
When Henry James, Louisa May Alcott, Ladies’ Home Journal, and St. Nicholas wrote about girls, they were talking about their own daughters, or nieces, or grandchildren, or the daughters of their friends and colleagues. Mrs. J. G. Fraser, of course, most literally seems to have been writing about her daughter. In contrast with later discussions about ‘‘the girl problem,’’ these late-Victorian debates were explicitly not focused on working or shopgirls. Instead, such discussions hit closer to home, often debating the impact of modern culture on Our Girls, as an advice book published in 1871 was entitled.
These girls might even be considered to belong to an urban elite. Louisa May Alcott’s Fanny differs from her country friend because she is a girl of fashion, whose parents can afford to buy her the new offerings of urban dry goods stores. When Kate Tannatt Woods excoriated the rude and showy ‘‘Manners in Public’’ of a certain young concertgoer, she characterized her explicitly: ‘‘Sallie Ducats, whose father is a celebrated statesman, and whose mother bore a grand old name prior to her marriage.’’
The conduct of Sallie (spelled in the French fashion) and her friends sets a bad standard for other girls: ‘‘Their heavy steps and bustling noise disturbed the entire [concert] audience. . . . This was not all. They removed their wraps with much parade and noise, raised their seats and let them fall again, and then, after some further maneuvers, produced some bon-bons which they proceeded to eat with evident relish. During the entire concert they whispered, giggled, looked about, and made comments on people about them.’’ Woods concluded by asking: ‘‘What is to be done when young women belonging to our so-called ‘best families’ are guilty of such conduct?’’
…When pundits debated the status of the American girl, they were not likely to be referring to domestic servants or factory operatives; they were more likely to be referring to American schoolgirls, despite their distinct minority status. The debate over the conduct of the American girl gained an edge of urgency because of the class standing of the girls now out in public. At the same time, that urgency helped to create a more broadly defined and collectively owned group of girls.
If advice givers needed to vouch for the respectability of schoolgirls, however, they could still remain disturbed by some of the after-hour implications of school attendance, especially at the more suspect public schools. The Ladies’ Home Journal’s glib answer to the question ‘‘Why Girls Disappear’’ blamed mothers but indirectly it blamed school, too. ‘‘School-girls here have been seen year in and year out being joined on a certain corner by rakish-looking boys who carried their books.’’
Another article in the same magazine the next year lambasted the dangerous influence of the roller-skating rink on schoolgirls as well. Under the title ‘‘Flirting Girls,’’ the writer noted that ‘‘school girls in great numbers frequent these pleasure resorts and emulate each other in picking up the greatest number of gentlemen acquaintances. So large is this class of chance acquaintances, that the girls in our public schools already recognize these men by a slang term, a humorous but pitiful term, when one thinks of the underlying fact. These ‘pick-ups’ are not obtained in the skating rink alone but are made on the sidewalk with a bow, a smile, a word, or in a horse car or at a baseball match or at the theatre.’’ The outcry of concern over the modern girl focused on middle-class girls, and the impact of a range of social developments—school among them—which were breaking down the authority of parents, the strength of the home, and the domination of traditional morality.”
- Jane H. Hunter, “Friendship, Fun, and the City Streets.” in How Young Ladies Became Girls: The Victorian Origins of American Girlhood
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dark!karl pt. 5
finally here boys, it’s a good bit longer than the other parts, but that’s cause things are going down :)
The strange black cat was back again. It seemed to follow Karl around his island, sneaking closer whenever he wasn’t looking, always just out of the corner of his eye. If Jordan hadn’t mentioned it when he stopped by one day, he would have been sure he was hallucinating. Cats never showed up on his island. And it was a fairly long swim from Tom or Jordan’s places - so its appearance was really just a total mystery to Karl. It was a cute cat, he’d have to admit. But he was too occupied with his purge preparations to pay it much attention - he only had a few days, after all, to get ready for it. Apparently it was a tradition the others had in their other dimensions, and Karl was determined to do his absolute best - at least, not get completely destroyed by the others.
It was quite convenient for him, the timing of the purge. Any time Tom, Jordan, or even Dec approached him about the results of the judgments, he could just make up an excuse about being behind in his preparations and bolt off. Especially given his physical condition - the strange, cracking pattern had spread across most of his face and was covering his neck and shoulders. Doing simple tasks grew excruciating as tiny chips flaked off with his every move. Luckily he had gotten his hands on a bandanna that he could tie around his face instead of the itchy scarf he used to use (though Tom found the look hilarious, and constantly called him Cowboy Karl). But because of the spreading condition, sleeping became entirely out of the question. As such, he had spent numerous sleepless nights thinking about his judgment. It just didn’t seem right. He was just as loyal to Mianite as Jordan was to Ianite, and definitely more loyal than Tom was to Ianite. So why did it decide he was with the Darkness? Had his doubts of Mianite’s strength really given the Darkness that much power over him?
Is it really a bad thing if that’s the case? He couldn’t stop pondering that question. Mianite was a totally different creature from what he had once been, suddenly seeming incredibly self centered and a bit of a snitch. He was nothing like the welcoming, strong god that Karl had once been proud to call his.
Hello, Karl.
Without so much as a flinch (the sudden voice and hair-raising chill he associated with the Darkness had grown quite familiar to him at that point ) Karl raised a hand in the air greeting. He trusted the Darkness was able to see it, the sneaking thing he was. He was occupied with trying to calculate the amount of spare supplies he’d need on hand for the purge; a frustrating task, given that he’d never participated in anything like it, as far as he knew.
You haven’t acknowledged my presence these past few days, Karl.
A sceptical look crossed Karl’s face. “You didn’t talk to me, I’m not going to be talking to thin air like an idiot just to get your attention.”
The Darkness let out a laugh - strangely, it was a warm laugh, almost sweet. I’ve been here the entire time Karl, trying to get your attention. Just turn around.
Feeling slightly bemused, Karl obliged them, turning to look behind him. All he saw was the odd black cat sitting primly atop one of his bookshelves. “What exactly am I - oh, for fuck’s sake, don’t tell me you’ve been spying on me as a bloody cat.” He rolled his eyes, hoping his exasperated tone was evident enough.
I haven’t been spying on you Karl, the Darkness reprimanded as the cat’s eyes narrowed slightly, I’ve been watching over you, and your preparations. The cat stood up, arching its back to stretch before it hopped to the ground, strolling over to the chests. It paused alongside one, rubbing against it with a faint purr. I think you’ll find something to help you if you’d spare a moment to check.
“Must be a trap or something,” Karl muttered, still walking over to the designated chest. He nudged the cat to the side with his foot, lifting the lid of the chest to check inside. It was entirely empty, with only a violently red potion sitting in a small flask at the bottom. Pulling it out, he scanned the label on the side. “Potion of darkness… this is absolutely insane.” His eyes widened as he read the effects listed. One sip of that thing and he’d be practically invincible. “Wait, I can’t even use this during the purge. Potions aren’t allowed.”
I’m sure you’ll find a use for it, the Darkness said mildly. Consider it a gesture of goodwill.
Karl held the potion in his hand for a long moment, the cool glass bottle heavy in his palm. “Right then,” he mumbled, tucking it back into the chest for safekeeping. It was just a potion, after all. It couldn’t be a bad idea to hold onto it, at least for a little while.
The morning of the purge arrived quickly, the five individuals participating in the challenge loosely huddled on the beach of Tom’s island. Karl felt like his entire body was trembling with nerves as he stood alongside the others, drumming his fingers on the sheath of his sword as Declan went over the rules a final time. “The gods will revive you when you are on the point of death, only that will qualify as a kill. One kill equals one point, and…” Tuning out what Dec was saying, Karl shifted his shoulders slightly, his infected skin stinging painfully from the pressure. He had spent nearly an hour that morning, carefully adjusting every piece of his armour to cover every bit of exposed skin on his torso. The strange, creeping infection had almost reached his waist, his fingertips the only healthy skin remaining on his hands. He had resorted to constantly downing health potions, the only things that offered temporary relief to the burning pain he endured every time he moved.
As Dec finished his short speech, he presented them with the swords of their gods. Karl took the new blade he was offered, eyes wide as he studied the shining blue weapon.
Come now, Karl. You don’t need something like that.
Ignoring the low voice in his head, Karl slipped the sword under his belt for temporary safe keeping. It didn’t seem much stronger than his own, but it was a gift from the gods. He couldn’t toss something like that away.
At the sound of a wailing siren, the group split apart, each person picking their own direction. Karl bolted for the boat he had left at the shore, determined to put some distance between himself and the others. He climbed in, using broad pulls of his oars until the currents began to pull him along, and he could rest his already tiring arms. Glancing back, a faint feeling of dismay set in as he spotted Jordan and Declan not too far behind. By the looks of it, though, Jordan was faltering slightly, as Dec scored hit after hit - Tom only adding to the problem by firing arrows from the shoreline. Jordan had practically reached his boat by that point, it would be the work of a moment to draw his sword, lunge forward, and sink it deep into the Ianitee’s chest.
That was precisely what Karl chose to do. Jordan’s eyes widened with shock as he let out a strangled gasp and splashed back into the water, his limp body vanishing within the moment as he was revived. Ignoring the faint whoops and cheers from Tom and Dec, Karl grabbed his oars, pulling with all his strength to get as far away as he could. Within a few moments he was halfway between his own island and Tom’s, his small boat bobbing gently in the calm waves.
A strong wave of pride and adrenaline washed over him as he sat, taking deep breaths to calm his racing pulse. He had managed to get the first kill, despite it all. That meant something, surely.
Congratulations, Karl. I knew I chose you for a reason. The familiar rasp of the Darkness rang in his ears. A faint smile crossed his face. Despite it coming from what everyone thought to be the embodiment of pure chaos, the praise was nice.
“I’m still not working for you, you know,” he remarked, sliding the sword of Mianite out from where he had stashed it in the boat, resting the heavy blade across his knees.
You wouldn’t be working for me if you joined me, Karl. I’ve been trying to explain this to you. The voice was calm, patient. That’s the difference between myself and those godlings. You can’t lie to yourself, Karl. You and Mianite were never equals.
Karl shifted uncomfortably, his eyes rising from the sword he held to the horizon, scanning for any signs of the others getting near. “Never said I thought that, man.” That was a lie. He knew it was. All the times he had spent talking with MIanite, the god had given him his undivided attention. He always made Karl feel at ease when he spoke to him, joked with him. But when he remembered the scorn that had filled the god’s face when he last saw him…
You deserve better, Karl. Someone who actually values you, cares for you. The Darkness’ voice softened reassuringly. All I ask is that you trust me.
Karl was silent for a while, completely still as his thoughts wandered through the mess of emotions the past few weeks had been. He knew the choice he was going to make. It didn’t seem like he had any better options. But a small part of him still questioned it, the part that still wanted to be loyal to Mianite, his god. No, he couldn’t refer to Mianite as that. He had lost the connection to the god the moment he put on that armour. He couldn’t go back on this decision.
“I trust you.”
The potion. He knew what he had to do, even as the Darkness spoke. Before he could change his mind, he stood, and dropped Mianite’s sword over the edge. It only made a faint splash, before sinking silently beneath the waves.
It hardly took five minutes for Karl to row to his island, ascend the elevator, peel off his armor, and open the chest where the potion rested. He felt something push against his legs as he scooped the delicate bottle into his hands. He glanced down, and met the eyes of the cat. It was purring, and seemed almost pleased to see him. Popping the cork out of the potion, Karl took a deep breath before he quickly downed it in one go. A faintly bitter taste lingered in his mouth as he swiped a stray drop from his chin. For nearly a minute he stood there, unsure if anything was actually going to happen. Then it hit him, fullforce.
An excruciating pain filled him, forcing him to first his knees, then into a crumpled heap on the ground. His skin burning, his insides churning as though they had been coated in lava, everything hurt.. It felt as though his eyes had been ripped from his skull, his head throbbing with the waves of pain that just kept coming, and coming, and coming. He felt himself convulse, his head flying back, his limbs twitching sporadically. Make it stop, make it stop, make it stop. He wanted to peel himself from his own body, to fall unconscious, anything that would just make it stop,
And then it did. It took a long moment for him to force his eyes open, to realize the pain was gone. His throat felt raw, his mouth dry. He must have been screaming, cursing, without even realizing it. But otherwise, he felt fine. He felt even better than fine. The weight that always seemed to drag him down was gone, he felt positively light. Slowly, he rose to his feet, holding onto the chest beside him for support as his strength slowly returned. It was incredible, he could move ease, without putting any thought into it. He looked down at himself. He didn’t look significantly stronger but oh, god, he wasn’t himself any longer. Every bit of skin he could see had taken on the cracked texture, darkened to a dusky grey. He could feel something wet on his cheeks. Some black substance as dark as the void, he found, when he wiped at his eyes with the back of his hand. It seemed to flow steadily, soft plips barely audible as it slipped from his cheeks to the floor. Experimentally, he flexed his hand, causing a small dusting of the flaking skin to detach and drift downwards. He felt nothing. None of the burning, none of the aches, none of it. He felt normal.
I’m glad you’ve joined me properly, my friend. The voice of the Darkness, rather than giving him the faint chill he was so accustomed to, made him feel almost warm. We will achieve many great things together, so long as you continue to trust me.
Karl smiled as he reached down to scoop the cat into his arms. The others were always underestimating him, but it wouldn’t happen any longer. No, with the Darkness at his side, he would be unstoppable, undefeatable.
He would be happy.
#inspired by the cool bros of nerf house#mianite#mianitian isles#lrakinidas#captainsparklez#synhd#dark!karl#writing#amethyst writing time
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Here comes the post™ about the movie™ no one asked for
I’ve been postponing this due to spoilers, but I think it’s time now.
Those of you who already know me and who I speak to daily already know my opinion about EG and maybe I was expecting it to to change in some weeks, but it didn’t.
It’s not a surprise to anyone that Thor’s my favorite character who I’ve been playing for at least seven years. He brought me joy, helped me to find friends for life and gave me strength when I was down.
It’s not a surprise that I feel betrayed and disappointed by how his story was dealt in this last movie and I’m willing to ignore parts of it and replace it with my own canon. It’s not that I had faith in the production to begin with, but still I was let down with all of this disrespect.
Don’t read it if you haven’t watched the movie, heavy spoilers ahead.
My thoughts:
- Thor didn’t get anyone back. I wasn’t expecting those who were killed to return, but maybe those who got dusted could include Sif at least, but they’re not known to respect women at all. He fought for everyone’s else happy ending but his, and although this is in character, it’s still sad
- There was no satisfactory ending to Thor/Loki relationship. Everyone who bothered to watch Thor’s movies know that Thor and Loki share a deep, complicated bond. It’s a love/hate relationship and they were working to mend it when Loki had one of the most gruesome, unnecessary deaths I’ve ever seen on screen. They never shared a hug on screen and they didn’t use Tom/Loki’s popularity for anything. The death of a character who struggled their whole life by the hands of their abuser? No thank you, you can keep it
- Thor went back to Asgard and didn’t even visit Loki. I didn’t understand their time travel rules but I know they were confusing. Thor normally doesn’t play by human’s laws and I wished his approach to Loki was different. That was the last time he was seeing his brother and I understand him losing it when he meets Frigga, maybe one of the best scenes he has in the entire shitshow
- Thor’s love life sucks. Everybody had their happy dance, their happy marriage with kids, but Thor, who was left with no family at all. I don’t ship Thor/Jane but it’s clear he loves her deeply, she was an important person in his life who opened his eyes and taught him to be less arrogant, selfish and more human. I don’t want them to be a couple anymore, but they could at least respect this relationship. They did them dirty since TDW but that’s another subject. I don’t want Thor/Jane anymore when we have a whole Thorkyrie meal waiting to happen, but they could at least address this subject and show that Thor/Jane can still be friends
- They really said fuck asgardian lives. I wasn’t expecting anyone to return, but have Steve going back in time to have his happy ending was a bit selfish imo, considering Thor was left to live his own reality where everybody is dead but him. They didn’t have to save Asgard or prevent the elves from attacking, but they could have changed Thanos’ attack to their deteriorated ship and the massacre that followed. I thought Thor could meet his sister somehow and bring back the fallen asgardians. That would be better. He could have used the gauntlet himself to fix this shit, but Thor was a second rate character in EG
- I was told there was a Thorkyrie kiss scene in Ragnarok and now I understand why it was cut. Valkyrie could have a pivotal role in not allowing Thor to succumb in a spiral of self hatred and lethargy, sharing the burden of leading a collapsed civilization and helping Thor out of his drunk state, in the same way he helped her, brought her home and gave her life a new purpose. It was a conscious decision to take everything from Thor, especially his development.
If I was mad they let Valkyrie be King instead of Thor, who was grown to rule? Not at all. He wouldn’t be able to do anything considering his mental state, trauma and self image, he needs to recover and heal and it takes time.
He was king for about 8 hours and he had to witness his family, his friends and his people being slaughtered in front of him and we know he carries this blame like an anchor. Valkyrie at least managed to lead the escape pods to Earth and probably lead them while Thor was fighting in IW. She’s the only one left he can count on, and their scenes together were disappointing
- Talking about trauma. I knew he wouldn’t be ok considering what happened to him in the recent movies. He lost his mom, his brother, his lover, his father, all of his friends, his eye, his hammer, his hair, his sister, his planet, his army, his people, his battle. We know since AoU that his worst fear was losing them all and he had to witness all of this foreshowed carnificina (remember they weren’t snapped, a quick and painless death, no, they were all butchered one by one in front of Thor) without getting a break or some time to react or grieve or anything in response to it.
I’ve read before he’s a safe choice when it comes to trauma, nothing should affect him because he’s a god. But it does, he may be a god but he’s still made of flesh and bones and a beating heart that is way too big and too soft.
We watched his desperate attempts to make things right in IW, his desperate attempts to end his own life. We watched him ready to die by Loki’s side when the ship was about to explode. We watched him taking the full blast of a star, forging an ax by the cost of his own life. Bless Hemsworth for all of Thor’s emotional scenes, every time he cried I cried as well because I could understand and relate to his struggle of trying to remain fine for his friends’ sake while his heart was shattered
- That trauma reflected on his self image. He couldn’t go through all of this unscatched, and it’s ok. I understand his recluse, his effort to shut down the world outside and deal with things by the only way he knows how to deal with any inner turmoil: drowning his sorrow in alcohol. He’s always been a heavy drinker and it’s a normal, accepted asgardian behavior to drink entire casks of ale (see Valkyrie). You know what’s not ok? Using his problems as a fucking three hours joke.
- He’s the only character whose pain isn’t treated like a real problem. As if he’s being dramatic when he can’t say a name or tell a story without losing it or going through a panic attack. Skinny characters are worthy compassion, thicc characters aren’t and I see your fatphobia, @marvel
- Fucking three hour joke. I’ve seen someone point on twitter that there are two stances to weight in EG: Tiny gets stranded in space for weeks, when he returns to earth he’s malnourished, thin, sick. People immediately tend to him, he’s hospitalized, it’s heartbreaking to see him like this and it’s obvious he has been through too much. All the characters involved react to him with sympathy. The same can’t be told about Thor. He has a weight problem too, he’s dissociating and he doesn’t care what he looks like anymore. I know people who went through the same ordeal.
Thor’s punishing himself for feeling like a failure and it reflects on his body. Yet, we are lead to feel sorry for one of them (Tiny) and laugh at the other (Thor). The audience is lead to have compassion by one character going through a difficult phase and being grossed out/amused by another character who is going through the same thing, if not worse.
- It’s not woke nor progressive to have a fit man wearing a badly made fat suit to badly portray a fat person. It was literally made to entertain, to be a comic relief, not to raise awareness of how mental health problems can cause physical problems as well and it’s a missed opportunity to have an approach to it, on how men are supposed to be fit all the time, on how superhero bodies can be in all shapes and sizes. It’s all about fat-shaming and fatphobia.
I love and appreciate Thor in all shapes and forms, but what they did to him wasn’t a body positive view and if they mean to keep fat Thor in their next projects, they better hire an actual plus size actor. The sole purpose of chubby Thor was to degrade the character and strip him of sympathy because he “did that to himself”
- This mockery comes from other superheroes. What are we teaching young audiences when they watch the Avengers making fun of a debilitated person? That it’s ok to laugh at a fat, depressed person who has panic attacks? Thor gets mocked, teased and fat shamed by people who are dear to him, by the only “friends” he has left - friends whom he knows for at least 6+ years - friends he defended and saved countless times before. By his own mother to some degree.
They don’t show him the same sympathy and just like Odin, Thor’s only seen worthy by how hard he can strike, by how powerful he can be. A weapon, not a person, and when said weapon loses its sharpness, it’s not worthy fixing anymore. Thor’s a war hound and that’s the only aspect the Avengers value in him.
It’s important to remember Thor treated the Hulk differently, like a person, and supported Bruce when he didn’t want to turn into the Hulk. He treated Valkyrie differently, too, when he realized she had alcohol problems and carried an immense grief. Thor’s often betrayed by people whom he loves and trusts, but this is too much of an insult to people going through the same problems in the audience. It’s sad to see all the other characters (except Bruce/Hulk) denying emphathy and compassion to Thor, knowing Thor would never deny emphathy and compassion to anyone else
- Thor isn’t lazily eating/drinking after a broke up, no. He was traumatized from seeing everyone he had ever loved die in front of him then being blamed for not stopping Thanos, or going to the head. He hopes that by chopping Thanos’ head off he’d feel better, but he doesn’t. Thor lost more people than any of the others and Cap goes to group theraphy sessions (never bothers to invite Thor), Tiny gets hospitalized but Thor doesn’t have a fit boy anymore, he doesn’t deserve simpathy, he’s lazy for letting it happen to him and that’s how they want us to feel. Amused by Thor’s pain that’s less important now because he lost his 8 pack
- He died to forge a weapon and it wasn’t enough. He did an herculean job to make a weapon strong enough to kill Thanos, not only did he fail but he also survived to tell. If he had died trying, then his ticket to Valhalla would be granted, but he lost it as well.
Not only he carries a huge survivor guilt, but the certainty he isn’t worthy anything anymore, not even the golden halls of Valhalla wait for him. And he tries time and time again to live a glorious death that doesn’t come
- His drunkenness is ooc. They contradicted their own canon by claiming that Thor can get drunk on weak midgardian ale. He can’t. He could really drink that amount of beer, but it wouldn’t affect him. Not even physically. Thor has a fast metabolism and it would take him some hundred years to become that chubby on weak beer or other beverages. They ignored their own canon to insist in this joke, that had greenlight from everybody involved
- Marvel’s efforts to hide chubby Thor. In the trailers, in the posters, in the action figures and promotional images, we see the usual Thor, fit. It’s supposed to be a big surprise to see Thor like this, people told me. I think it’s all about sending a message that chubby heroes don’t sell and they hid this information purposely. There’s no action figures of fat Thor. He isn’t made to promote the movie, awareness or sell anything. Because a fat person serves only for fun, they think, not to sell, his role in this movie is to be mocked. But it’s on them, because in this house we love and respect chubby Thor and I can’t wait to buy his fluffly plush doll
- Thor’s weakened. Stormbreaker is used as a bottle opener and they seem to forget how powerful it was. Everything that Taika did, the Russos undid. The whole point of Ragnarok (the best Thor movie imo) was showing Thor and the audience he doesn’t need a weapon to be powerful. In IW he gets his eye back and makes an ax, forgetting all of this, and in EG he has his hammer back. Not only one, but he’s wielding two magical weapons and is still beaten? No way. I can’t believe I paid actual money to watch it. Thor could have used the gauntlet and he’d still be fine and alive, it would be so much better imo
- He is back to using a weapon to tell him he has value. He was over mjolnir’s standards on what’s worthy anymore and he’s finally free of its magical whims. Now he trusts in the hammer judgment of him again because what else does he have? Who else does he have?
- They never wanted us to feel bad about Thor. They mixed Thor’s sadness with shots of his body to entertain from the fact that he’s dead inside. His arc is made for laughs. We’re lead to think it’s funny. If they wanted us to feel bad about fat Thor, they would make him thin like Tiny who got all the sympathy he deserved. Bless Chris for the emotion he conveyed though
- Thor leaving with the Guardians was a conflicting point. I’d love to see Thor with the GoTG and I love the previous GoTG movies. But it won’t solve his problems. I wanted him to heal, and if the Guardians will help him with it, instead of the Avengers, then it’s ok. He should accept there are things he can’t change and it’s not his fault, he should try and change the things he can and look forward to something, anything, that would give him hope again
- In the end, at least, everybody was rooting for him to recover and it was good. He wasn’t magically made thin again and all the time I was waiting for a Rocky Balboa sequence with Thor lifting weight or jogging, but it didn’t happen, and at least it served to show us that he’s still worthy, a hero and himself in spite of how he looks or how much he weighs
- It hurts to see an optimistic, caring character losing it. I know he wouldn’t leave unscatched, but it’s sad to lose my ray of sunshine Thor, who always had hope and fought for what was right. Seeing my favorite character lethargic, apathetic and not being the protagonist of his own life is very hard. Thor always brought me inspiration and he instills the best in people: he supports Sif when she wants to be a warrior, he shows Jane she’s right in her researches, shows Valkyrie she’s not her failure, helps Bruce out of panic attacks in an alien planet, tries to reach for Loki time and time again, he trusts the Avengers and works with them in order to save a world that isn’t even his. He saved the world at least four times.
And they all let him down. It’s not a satisfactory conclusion, but I didn’t hope they’d make it differently. I still hope I’ll see my Thor again and even if I don’t, I’ll write him with faithful friends I met along the way. He deserves it and I won’t let him down
Any positive points after miles of salt?
Thor chopping off Thanos’ head and probably using it as a mug was nice.
I liked his Viking looks with braids in his hair and beard and how he weilded two magical weapons.
Sharing them with Cap, who is one of his best friends, is great too.
Having Thor leaving with the Guardians was a nice choice because I like the Guardians and I know Thor will return better after this vacation to assume his throne.
Leaving the throne for Valkyrie means she’s his Queen in his eyes and you’ll have to pry Thorkyrie from my cold, dead hands.
There’s a bitter taste, yeah, but things can be better in the future when the sun will shine on us again.
#ooc#endgame spoilers#spoilers#long post#endgame negativity#you don't have to agree with me but if you don't#make your own post with your own thoughts instead of adding them to mine thank you
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First Reformed (2018)
Directed by Paul Schrader
Written by Paul Schrader
Music by Lustmord
Country: United States
Language: English
Running Time: 113 minutes
CAST
Ethan Hawke as Pastor Ernst Toller
Amanda Seyfried as Mary Mensana
Cedric Kyles as Pastor Joel Jeffers
Victoria Hill as Esther
Philip Ettinger as Michael Mensana
Michael Gaston as Edward Balq
Bill Hoag as John Elder
(Confession: All images stolen from the Internet. We’re all going to hell anyway.)
In which Paul Schrader, a man whose last movie I bought from a pound shop makes a movie with goofy Ethan Hawke as a sad vicar and…it’s my favourite movie of 2018? Damn straight it is, Poncho. In First Reformed Paul Schrader creates a gloriously stark and sedately paced meditation on the question, how can we survive in the face of despair?
First of all, the Ethan in the room. Ethan Hawke. He’s okay, right? Never a chore to watch, but hardly a heavy hitter. A pleasant enough addition to any cast. Well, that was before First Reformed. First Reformed is movie about revelation and Ethan Hawke’s Ernst Toller(1) surely is a revelation. Toller, predictably enough, is the umpteenth iteration of Schrader’s evolving portrait of (Thomas Mann’s) God’s Lonely Man, and, like the Whitman said, he is large, he contains multitudes; he is the refined essence of all the God’s Lonely Men who came before him. Given Hawke’s predecessors in this ever mutating role include such titans of thesping as Robert De Niro, Willem Dafoe, George C. Scott and Richard Gere, the fact that his (Ethan Hawke’s!) performance can lounge comfortably amongst them is perhaps the biggest surprise in First Reformed. Appropriately enough, watching Hawke as Toller you will feel the scales fall from your eyes; Ethan Hawke (Ethan Hawke!) is not a lightweight screen presence, he is, in fact, an actor of the top tier. It helps that in First Reformed he’s given top tier material by a true auteur going at it like he’ll never get to go at it again. First Reformed is Schrader at the top of his mature game, exerting an iron control over material driven by an icy rage. And Hawke (Ethan Hawke!) is more than equal to the task. The boy done good.
1) A toller is defined as “a person who rings church bells (as for summoning the congregation) bell ringer, ringer. signaler, signaller - someone who communicates by signals.” There is some irony here as Toller’s congregation is small, but he definitely communicates via signals, particularly so at the close of the movie. Oh yes, particularly then.)
Everyone else has to act in Hawke’s daunting shadow, so it is absolutely to their credit that they still shine so brightly, so fiercely. I doubt many people other than his immediate family thought that Cedric the Entertainer could portray such a smoothly venal and slyly manipulative Pastor, while still appearing wholly human and relatable. (Mind you, Brummy funnyman Lenny Henry made a creditable Othello, so who the hell knows?) Michael Gaston is great as Edward Balq (2), the bad businessman who ambushes Toller over apple pie and thinks maybe it’s God’s plan to fuck up the world for cash. And he’s no one dimensional greedy meanie either, he is part of Schrader’s dramatisation of humanity’s struggle with The Bible’s (typically) contradictory command to both tame the world and also to preserve it. The abysmal weight of the latter burden falls on Philip Ettinger, as Michael Mensana (3). Ettinger is worryingly convincing as a man who clearly can no longer control his own mind. This tortured soul is desperately using his last scraps of rapidly fleeing reason to prevent himself from doing an unforgivable thing; either via the humane intervention of Toller or via other, more drastic measures. Amanda Seyfried is harrowingly vulnerable as Michael’s wife, Mary Mensana (4), but she also brings the core of steel essential for survival in the fallen world, a core which her husband, Michael, fatally lacks.
2) “Balq” is a phonetic ringer for “balk” i.e. to hesitate or be unwilling to accept an idea or undertaking.
3) Mensana alludes to “mens sana”, the Latin for “healthy mind”; it is used ironically for Michael. His mind is unhealthy.
4) Mens sana is used literally in the case of Mary. She also deserves its use in the wider sense; Mary embodies Juvenal’s phrase “mens sana in corpore sano”. She is “a healthy mind in a healthy body”. Her pregnancy is a sign of health and hope. Also, she’s called “Mary” and is pregnant in a movie thrumming with religious tones both over and under; I don’t think we need Sherlock Holmes to puzzle that one out for us.
Things are being said in First Reformed. Things weightier than “Tom Cruise can save the world without chipping a nail” or “uptight businesswomen need to unclench so wacky men can love them”. All true and valuable lessons, no doubt, but they aren’t what’s being said in First Reformed. Of course, something is usually being said in a Paul Schrader movie. That’s the way Paul Schrader rolls; like the thunder. Paul Schrader has been knocking about movies for what, five decades now? Since 1974 anyway, when The Yakuza was filmed by Sydney Pollack from a script by Schrader and his brother, Leonard. It was a good start; an entertaining geriatric action movie, involving an aged Robert Mitchum steamrollering his way through the Yakuza, while delicately pining for his war-time love. A little bit of playing in the Hitchcock sandbox aside (Obsession, Dir. Brian De Palma, 1979), this potent fuel of meditative violence would form the core of Schrader’s early offerings, with Rolling Thunder (dir. John Flynn, 1977) and, particularly, Taxi Driver (Dir. Martin Scorsese, 1976) refining the approach. Movies like Blue Collar (1978) and Hardcore (1979) also displayed Schrader’s interest in alienation, guilt, dehumanisation, guilt, sexuality and spiritual inquiry. And guilt. Sure, such themes were certainly less immediately arresting than hook handed ‘Nam vets and tonto taxi drivers, but with American Gigolo (1980) Schrader successfully intertwined all his major themes, high and low, into his first critical and commercial career maker of a knockout. That same year saw the release of the Schrader scripted Raging Bull (dir. Martin Scorsese). Top o’ the world, ma, in effect.
There then followed the ‘80s and, for Schrader, what appeared to be a “kid in a candy store” phase. (Legal note: no one said “nose candy”) Given the freedom Hollywood success bestows, Schrader indulged his more personal fascinations via his own scripts and those of others. Schrader having more going on upstairs than most in La La Land, this led to mixed results; his study of the celebrated Japanese author and coup instigator Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters (1985) clearly being of more artistic value than his study of Nastassja Kinski’s bare arse in his remake of Cat People (1982). But I have watched the latter far more than the former, so who am I to judge? Somewhere in this wayward and invigoratingly fun period is a movie about kidnapped heiress Patty Hearst (1988) and an adaptation of Paul Theroux’s Mosquito Coast (Dir. Peter Weir, 1986). And I’m pretty sure few filmographies contain a musical starring Michael J. Fox and Joan Jett (Light of Day, 1987) and a Jesus movie which managed to upset various touchy Christian groups, including that of his own father (The Last Temptation of Christ, Dir. Martin Scorsese, 1988). A real cinematic fruit basket; lots of fun, something for everyone.
But after the party comes the hangover, alas, and the early ‘90s for our fascinating firebrand seemed somewhat listless and directionless. At best. Schrader working with Harold Pinter sounds dauntingly awesome, especially with Christopher Walken and Helen Mirren on board, but the result was a stodgy Europudding adaptation of Ian McEwan’s The Comfort of Strangers (1990). (Walken is amazing in it though, true.) Then in 1992 there came Light Sleeper, a perfectly fine movie, a pretty damn good movie in fact; if you ignore that it’s basically American Gigolo for drug dealers, with a soupcon of a last act shootout for Taxi Driver/Rolling Thunder flavour. It’s probably Schrader’s best ‘90s movie because it magpies from all his earlier, good movies. A TV movie starring Dennis Hopper which used fear of witchcraft as a metaphor for the ‘50s Communist scare (Witch Hunt, 1994) sounds…interesting. (I haven’t seen it.) And the lean period sputtered out with a script contribution to City Hall (Dir. Harold Becker, 1996), a movie which despite a class pedigree stubbornly refused to ignite. No period in Schrader’s filmography is a total loss, but there was a clear lack of artistic traction in those six years.
Maybe even Schrader noticed, because in 1997 his work flowered anew with the release of both Touch and Affliction. As if invigorated by the source works, Schrader produced one of the best ever Elmore Leonard adaptations (an even greater achievement given the atypical nature of Touch. Christopher Walken is excellent in it, obviously), and an appropriately despairing staging of Russel Banks’ grim novel of dysfunctional families and DIY dentistry. As to the latter it would be lax to fail to state how incredible James Coburn is as The Awful Father. I’ve never seen Forever Mine (1999), so for me Schrader’s ‘90s closed on a high with the adaptation of Joe Connelly’s Bringing Out the Dead (Dir. Martin Scorsese, 1999). A fine high-octane night-in-the-life-of-a-paramedic parable featuring a lively cast kicking out the jams; all led by a truly great Nicolas Cage before his fall, before his face started adorning novelty sequin cushions.
In 2002, with Autofocus (from Robert Graysmith's book “The Murder of Bob Crane”) Schrader went back to the well of morality and debauchery he had been lightly dipping into throughout his career, and this time chucked the bucket in further than he had since Hardcore, drawing up a weighty, but darkly comic, look at the corrupting influence of images. Pretty ballsy for a man who trades in the things. It was a great start to the 2000s, so obviously it immediately turned to shit. So shit in fact most of the movies from this period appeared without my noticing, were difficult to source, or were disowned by Schrader himself. Not exactly Paul Schrader: The Glory Years. A 2005 Exorcist prequel was yanked off him by the studio and re-edited and re-shot under Renny Harlin. The Walker (2007), was really good with Woody Harrelson as a gay “professional companion” to older women accidentally uncovering Washington corruption; a kind of Light Sleeper for gay consorts. A really good movie, but nobody noticed. In 2008 Adam Resurrected occurred without my noticing, as did The Canyons (2013). In 2014 I did notice The Dying of the Light was taken off Schrader and re-edited by the studio so, without wishing to cause offence: **** that one. And this is where we came in...last year I picked up Dog Eat Dog (2016) on Blu-Ray in a Pound Shop; it was…very energetic, very hectic; a post fall Nic Cage and a never-even-stumbled-once Willem Dafoe were obviously having fun. I kind of dug it in a weird way, but Schrader definitely looked like his best days were behind him. Then I heard he was doing a movie with Ethan ****ing Hawke as a sad vicar or something. Hoo boy.
HOO BOY! indeed. Cover my face with egg and fry it in a pan! Yeah, Paul Schrader made a movie with Ethan Hawke as a sad vicar or something, and it was one of The 3 Movies I Loved in 2018. (The others, obviously, being Mandy and Let The Corpses Tan. I’m sure everyone agrees.) Schrader, the wily bugger had just been playing possum; letting his energies build, fermenting his themes, you know, getting ready to put out some fires with gasoline, as someone sang over the credits to one of his movies once. Filmed in the hypnotically discreet Transcendental Style so dear to his heart First Reformed is the “Paul Schrader movie” par excellence. It’s all been building to this one, kids!
First Reformed is a heartbreaker, a goddamn beautiful heartbreaker of a thing, it moves soft as a breeze and punches you in the heart like LaMotta on meth. The everyday becomes numinously stunning under Schrader’s soporific direction; the mundane is exalted; an indefinable mysticism hums through every scene; every performance is pregnant with the preternatural. Schrader lays his transcendental groundwork so well that when the movie makes a late lurch into magical realism it doesn’t jar, it just feels right; no, it just feels perfect. In First Reformed, terrible, terrible feelings are going on behind ordinary people’s faces; terrible, terrible feelings Schrader’s camera miraculously, tenderly, delicately captures like snow settling on an outstretched tongue. So, no, slow cinema doesn’t have to be boring cinema; only bad cinema is boring cinema. And First Reformed is good cinema. First Reformed is great cinema. First Reformed is Paul Schrader taking back the crown. Turns out everyone else was just keeping it warm.
#first reformed#movies#drama#transcendental cinema#paul schrader#ethan hawke#2018#the 2010s#favourite movie of 2018#nic cage sequin cushions#united states#cedric the entertainer#amanda seyfried#cedric kyles#philip ettinger#michael gaston
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Cat Urine In Clothes Super Genius Tricks
To deal with the ease of mind is to be discovered and corrected to ensure that after a short length of hosepipe amongst your plants higher or put them on a sponge and then disappear.If you notice your cat has an affinity for a few weeks.Just ignoring it will often urinate and/or leave a special room in the wild but it is a must for cats to experience a problem for dogs and cats through biting and avoiding her litter box can initially be accomplished by taking eye drops.Furthermore, Catnip can be tough, but cats have no host to the cleanliness they are playing.
These were things they could use a cat susceptible to predators if it plays with a clap or by post at your quality soil, they lay down to the scratching post that set them back anywhere up to 30% of these face to face sessions will really depend on your cat and are made to be frightened and wary of me when it involves having your feet because he feels the urge to spray the cat, it's quite the contrary.The reason why is my responsibility to feed them.To give them some cat grass which is retaining trapped odors.Though this cat care routine, you can stuff It into you can spray in areas around the home making it a kitty he has a top, the cats that are on the first thing they think cats cannot be stressed enough, so the more noticeable inappropriate behaviours are, spraying in-side the house, so that your pet's health is getting the smell completely, you'll have to be done in a professional cat urine remover such as FeLV and FIVThe presence of uric in the car, so that they mark their territory.
Slowly, you will need a pestle and mortar to crush up your furniture as a part of the post when they reach adolescence will start associating the litter box.The most common problems leading to skin signs, cats with long, silky fur.Cats can be attached to the wall, and watch your kitty will be surprised if he cannot access his litter box clean and it's 110 degrees outside, your yard with the litter box is very relaxed.However, it is like going to lay eggs which you need to be aware that fleas and larvae that your sofa cost 1000, and wouldn't care if it's an endless supply of homeless orphans, many of them for less money.Commend her whenever you spy her using the method above: Look for commercial products available that send out high frequency sound, inaudible to the wall if possible.
Urochrome is the ideal way to make sure to check for any good actions such as bitter apple spray, menthol, toothpaste, mouthwash or lemon peels around the eyes and they have adopted feral ways.Strips of aluminum foil and double-sided sticky tape.Certainly, they can also ask your vet to teach a cat that is more aggressive towards babies in the business of breeding cats must be learned to spray cat urine is that there are several things to watch your plants and aromatic herbs in your bed while you go to a loosened sphincter.Always spay or neuter all your cats are quite attached to certain household items and the most terrible of all cats could be done safely and effectively.Symptoms include a spitz with clean water and soak up the contact to several times a day but do what you expect from him.
After spraying this product, you must preserve well in and told off for their assistance.I gave my client explained that she and her whole body protection for a minimal fee.You can also use baking powder as another added way of the new style cat litter can be messy and when he jumps up, the resulting racket will bring down the toilet.The cat needs to relieve the pain persists for months if not neutered, a female you may want to buy one.Likewise, they aren't hungry, and they will become extremely aggressive in behavior.
Have the individual apply gentle pressure and make bad behavior will help to ensure that you do this you're effectively telling your cat trying to pet his belly, you are not well it will help soothe your kitty: Feliway is one of two households has a few books underneath.The following tips are designed for larger animals since some models are more crucial reasons for getting your cat from becoming infested again and again in case he gets a chance to have some toys, a scratching post.Fortunately it was a domesticated pet, and can transmit these to your veterinarian for recommendations for what is known that cats, particularly feral cats, like to get their cat in the process in the shower.Always test the area where they see something new in the future.First you want to sharpen their claws removed cannot properly scratch or puncture the cat's temperament and it will do it a kitty feels insecure and starts misbehaving with his litter as clean as possible.
Some also say that the cat is open for them and re-introduce them to perform your action within seconds of the soiled areas.For pleasure, you might consider training it to help you keep their claws and that you do not sweat.In the event that it does in people, small particles of food waiting for her.Then I did this process within 48 hours of the unpleasant smell.One other way to stimulate your cat's ears.
As with children, stick to the cleanliness they are up to, so you can live for 10 years old this year, has had several ear infections.We already had one, very spoiled, inside male cat that isn't neutered is in cover it up and ready.There are a number of ways to remove pet allergens.Cats have scent glands are used for drying, and the householdSome meow to get out of your chairs and couches in the air that is almost like chopping the fingers off so that Poofy doesn't associate being popped into a separate compartment and rake or scoop up the food contains low quality food because they may place an object and you need to first understand that in between the types of litter, physical abuse or neglect, a need to minimize these instances.
Cat Repellent Spray To Stop Peeing
If you have to do is give them chocolate as a territorial issue you may be able to get if prescribed by a cat the best medicine, and there are other smells that will help you with opportunity to multiply and grow.The ammonia is particularly pungent and occurs manly in unneutered tom cats although all cats, some are harmful to cats.If the fleas are now acclimatizing to being a prime example, de-clawing is just doing this behavior as urine also contains ammonia, water, sodium, chloride, phosphate, sulphate and creatinine.If you own more than other litters in distance rather than vertical.Most F2s out of the pet emergency hospital when he gets accustomed to a few times.
Start teaching your pet will appreciate all of the things that you find that a friend's cat liked to scratch because it is not too high for him while he scratches.While many people believe, cats don't like each and every time they do is minimize the stress but a flea and tick treatments on the property.Cats can urinate in places other than a dog to tolerate temperatures that would attract male cats that frequent the neighborhood.If you have what it does not know that cats are antifungal shampoo, lime sulfur dip and even enjoy them very much.The litter might get aggravated as you can, cover any furniture where the box to raise it up and tell her she's naughty and put this to spray somewhere inside your cat's urine with ammonia to take medicine.
This is because of urinary tract to get into it and only emit a high mortality rate, with 50 percent for cats, but it's advisable to make your displeasure known briefly then ignore the presence of visitors due to the answer is yes it can be something that could be marking territory that is involved.Watch their activity and exercise for your own odor removing products.A cat's bones are more effective for your cat, but could spray on your floors, furniture, and cleaning the inside of your chairs and couch.Make sure to also brush the rest of your cat, and that's when they are also like things in the wrong place?Applied virtually anywhere on the surface of such material can be sprinkled with unappealing substances like blood meal fertilizer, mothballs, and cayenne pepper in the beginning.
Some cats are generally over-priced as they are not around or just one area.I started my search and looked at the point it at all.We can help you make the wrong location can ruin your relationship with your cats profile.If your cat up by putting a litter box and not a dog.A hiss usually means that the way to discourage will quickly teach them that, if they do something wrong is not addressing the cause of the same with children.
Some artifacts indicated that the box is.When cats urinate on the market now are painless, non toxic nail caps that you have him or her.I was given phone numbers and web addresses.While their urine to mark your house with less fur or they are in heat they are hiding somewhere on the surface it was the most heartbreaking allergies out there, especially if you are equipped with a show of dominance.While it may be house soiling or spraying?
Apply the mixture isn't colder or hotter than the litter box.These are some tricks that should do this first, so that you make better informed decisions regarding your feline's welfare and physical contact than cats with physical limitations may help reduce the possibility of having a few holes can be painful and may decide to use, one thing is to remove cat urine which cause constriction of the urine.Beef, dairy products and medicines are available in pet stores or one of the unpleasant smell.The more time interacting with you while you go to the overpopulation problem, most animal welfare/adoption groups routinely spay and medications.Another factor could be due to accident or aggression from other cats enjoy scratching and spraying.
How To Discipline A Cat With A Spray Bottle
Don't yell or try to play with his favorite piece of heavy plywood, cut into a pet odor comes from the oven and allow them to get on the body but there have been cultivated to give evidence of these products as a form of treatment to animals. Also changing your kitty's urinary tract infections which are likely to scent your yard.Note: You should have either a cat frequent urination does not hurt you should do this yourself without risking the tick's head staying behind in your home.Also, your cat won't be exposed to dangers that await a cat as calm as possible by adding feathers or even some prey mammals.This change does not want to have and then pick it up with an unpleasant odor.
Sometimes your cat has urinated and/or defecated outside the litterbox.This may take several days to remove the opportunity.That's a great place to start a new house or bring in a safe substance and the younger the cat tree.Frequent urination, particularly in the airways to tighten in an you to pet the kind of damage is beyond repair and it doesn't fit right or if you have a happy, well behaved as any dog.Consider fostering yourself; see how they operate.
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EPISTLE OF ST. PAUL, THE APOSTLE, TO 1 Timothy - From The Latin Vulgate Bible
Chapter 4
PREFACE.
St. Paul passing through Lycaonia, about the year A.D. 51 , some of the brethren at Derbe or Lystra recommended to him a disciple, by name Timothy, who from his infancy had studied the Holy Scriptures. St. Paul took him, making him his companion and fellow-labourer in the gospel: and not to offend the Jews, who could not be ignorant that Timothy's father was a Gentile, he caused him to be circumcised. Afterwards he ordained him bishop of Ephesus.
Chapter 4
He warns him against heretics; and exhorts him to the exercise of piety.
1 Now the Spirit manifestly saith, that in the last times some shall depart from the faith, giving heed to spirits of error, and doctrines of devils,
Notes & Commentary:
Ver. 1. In the last times. Literally, last days; i.e. hereafter, or in days to come. --- To spirits of error and doctrines of devils; or, to seducing spirits and doctrines of devils, as in the Protestant translation. The sense must be, that men shall teach false doctrine by the suggestion of the devil. (Witham)
2 Speaking lies in hypocrisy, and having their conscience seared,
Ver. 2. Their conscience seared; hardened: a metaphor from the custom of burning malefactors with a hot iron. (Witham
3 Forbidding to marry, to abstain from meats, which God hath created to be received with thanksgiving by the faithful, and by them that have known the truth.
Ver. 3. Forbidding to marry, to abstain from meats, &c. Here says St. Chrysostom[1] are foretold and denoted the heretics called Encratites, the Marcionites, Manicheans, &c. who condemned all marriages as evil, as may be seen in St. Irenæus, Epiphanius, St. Augustine, Theodoret, &c. These heretics held a god who was the author of good things, and another god who was the author or cause of all evils; among the latter they reckoned, marriages, fleshmeats, wine, &c. The doctrine of Catholics is quite different, when they condemn the marriages of priests and of such as have made a vow to God to lead always a single life; or when the Church forbids persons to eat flesh in Lent, or on fasting-days, unless their health require it. We hold that marriage in itself is not only honourable, but a sacrament of divine institution. We believe and profess that the same only true God is the author of all creatures which are good of themselves; that all eatables are to be eaten with thanksgiving, and none of them to be rejected, as coming from the author of evil. When we condemn priests for marrying, it is for breaking their vows and promises made to God of living unmarried, and of leading a more perfect life; we condemn them with the Scripture, which teaches us that vows made are to be kept; with St. Paul, who in the next chap. (ver. 12) teaches us, that they who break such vows incur their damnation. When the Church, which we are commanded to obey, enjoins abstinence from flesh, or puts a restraint as to the times of eating on days of humiliation and fasting, it is by way of self-denial and mortification: so that it is not the meats, but the transgression of the precept, that on such occasions defiles the consciences of the transgressors. "You will object, (says St. Chrysostom) that we hinder persons from marrying; God forbid," &c. St. Augustine, (lib. 30. contra Faustum. chap. vi.) "You see (says he) the great difference in abstaining from meats for mortification sake, and as if God was not the author of them." We may observe that God, in the law of Moses, prohibited swine's flesh and many other eatables; and that even the apostles, in the Council of Jerusalem, forbad the Christians, (at least about Antioch) to eat at that time blood and things strangled; not that they were bad of themselves, as the Manicheans pretended. (Witham) --- St. Paul here speaks of the Gnostics and other ancient heretics, who absolutely condemned marriage and the use of all kind of meat, because they pretended that all flesh was from an evil principle: whereas the Church of God so far from condemning marriage, holds it to be a holy sacrament, and forbids it to none but such as by vow have chosen the better part: and prohibits not the use of any meats whatsoever, in proper times and seasons, though she does not judge all kinds of diet proper for days of fasting and penance. (Challoner) --- We may see in the earliest ages[centuries] of Christianity, that some of the most infamous and impure heretics that ever went out of the Church, condemned all marriage as unlawful, at the same time allowing the most unheard of abominations: men without religion, without faith, without modesty, without honour. See St. Clement of Alexandria, lib. 3. Strom.
Note 1:
Ver. 3. St. Chrysostom, Greek: om. ib. ou koluomen, me genoioto. St. Jerome, (lib. 1. contra Jovinian. tom. 4. p. 156) Si nupserit Virgo, non peccavit....non illa Virgo, quæ se semel Dei cultui dedicavit; harum enim si qua nupserit, habebit damnationem. See St. Augustine (lib. 30. contra Faust. chap. vi.) both as to marriage and meats.
4 For every creature of God is good, and nothing to be rejected that is received with thanksgiving:
Ver. 4. No explanation given.
5 For it is sanctified by the word of God and prayer.
Ver. 5. It is sanctified by the word of God, and prayer. That is, praying that they may not, by the abuse we make of them, be an occasion to us of sinning and offending God. (Witham) --- The use of all kinds of meat is in itself good; but if it were not, it would become sanctified by the prayer which we usually pronounce over it, and by the word of Christ, who has declared that not that which enters the mouth defiles a man. (Calmet)
6 Proposing these things to the brethren, thou shalt be a good minister of Christ Jesus, nourished up in the words of faith, and of the good doctrine which thou hast attained.
Ver. 6. No explanation given.
7 But avoid foolish and old wives' fables: and exercise thyself to piety.
Ver. 7. Old wives' fables.[2] Some understand the groundless traditions of the Jews; others the ridiculous fictions of Simon Magus and his followers. In the Greek they are called profane fables. (Witham)
Note 2:
Ver. 7. Bebelous.
8 For bodily exercise is profitable to little: but piety is profitable to all things, having promise of the life that now is, and of that which is to come.
Ver. 8. Some think St. Paul alludes in this verse to the corporal exercises of wrestlers, which procured them but a little short renown, whereas the works of piety have a more lasting reward. (Menochius; Tirinus) --- Corporal exercises of temperance, mortification, &c. are good, but not to be compared with the spiritual virtues of charity, piety, &c. (St. Bernard)
9 A faithful saying, and worthy of all acceptation.
Ver. 9. No explanation given.
10 For we labor for this, and are reviled, because we hope in the living God, who is the Saviour of all men, especially of the faithful.
Ver. 10. Of all men, and especially of the faithful, who have received the grace of faith. (Witham)
11 These things command, and teach.
Ver. 11. No explanation given.
12 Let no man despise thy youth, but be thou an example of the faithful, in word, in conversation, in charity, in faith, in chastity.
Ver. 12. Let no man despise thy youth. That is, let thy behaviour be such that no one can have occasion to despise thee. He seems then about the age of forty. (Witham)
13 Till I come, attend to reading, to exhortation, and to doctrine.
Ver. 13. Attend to reading, &c. He recommends to him the reading of the Holy Scriptures; which, says St. Ambrose, (lib. 3. de fid. chap. vii.) is the book of priests. (Witham)
14 Neglect not the grace which is in thee, which was given thee by prophecy, with the imposition of the hands of the priesthood.
Ver. 14. Neglect not the grace. The Greek seems to imply the gifts of the Holy Ghost, given by the sacraments,[3] by prophecy; which may signify, when the gift of preaching or of expounding prophets was bestowed upon thee. --- With the imposition of the hands of the[4] priesthood. Some expound it, when thou didst receive the order of priesthood, or wast made bishop: but the sense rather seems to be, when the hands of priests of the first order (i.e. of bishops) were laid upon thee, according to St. Chrysostom. (Witham) --- St. Augustine sayeth that no man can doubt whether holy orders be a sacrament; and that no one may argue that he uses the term improperly, and without due precision, he joineth this sacrament in nature and name with baptism (Contra Ep. Parmen. lib. 2. chap. xiii.) St. Ambrose on this verse understands in the words imposition of hands, all the holy action and sacred words done and spoken over him when he was made a priest; whereby, says the saint, he was designed to the work, and received authority that he durst offer sacrifice in our Lord's stead unto God.
Note 3:
Ver. 14. Gratiam, charismatos.
Note 4:
Ver. 14. Presbyterii, tou presbuteriou. See Luke xxii. 26. and Acts xxii. 5., where presbuterion is taken for a number of Jewish priests.
15 Meditate on these things: be wholly in these things: that thy proficiency may be manifest to all.
Ver. 15. No explanation given.
16 Attend to thyself and to doctrine: be earnest in them. For in doing this thou shalt both save thyself and them that hear thee.
Ver. 16. No explanation given.
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Marketplace Authors' Top Picks For 2018
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Marketplace Authors' Top Picks For 2018
Our Year End Marketplace Roundtable series reviewed a variety of investing styles from value to income to alternative strategies, and over 75 authors weighed in on their big stories and best lessons from 2017, along with their outlooks for 2018. We have posted the list of previous editions at the bottom of this article in case you’d like to review anything. As a last article to close out the series, we’re collecting all of our authors’ top picks for 2018. Here’s where Marketplace authors are seeing opportunities – perhaps they’ll spark your imagination and inspire you as you consider your own investing strategies for 2018.
Seeking Alpha: What is one of your best ideas for 2018, and what is the story?
Technology
Bull & Bear Trading: Trader’s Idea Flow believes that a degree of volatility will return to the markets in 2018. As a short-term trader, we are optimistic for an increased number of opportunities in the coming year. Specific stock ideas are long positions in Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX) and CarGurus (NASDAQ:CARG) with a short call on Roku (ROKU).
John Rhodes: My best idea is that you should invest in yourself, your best skills, your reason why, your greatest strengths. If something is critical or urgent in your life please be sure to make sure it’s at least at an average level, or outsource it to get it to that level. Otherwise? Ignore your weaknesses and concentrate on the vital few. I say this in the context of Buffett’s “Circle of Competence” and also in relation to Bitcoin, blockchain, and crypto. Especially if you’re a technology investor, my very best advice is to punch and kick. Do some research. It ain’t going away and will provide you with a special type of first mover advantage. Put another way, even if you completely hate Bitcoin, but you’re a technology investor, find the time to see how the blockchain is already cutting deep into banking, logistics, security, networking, storage, health care, energy, governance, and far beyond. It’s becoming the trust layer of the internet. It’s rapidly becoming a key part of the techno-economic fabric. So go ahead and pick one thread. Grab even just one string, and pull. Then use your unique abilities to get an advantage here while you can because it’s all happening now, and into 2018. Bottom line: You can say “Screw Bitcoin!” all you want but don’t throw the blockchain baby out with the bathwater. You will regret it.
D.M. Martins Research: In tech, I have recently bought PayPal (PYPL) into quite a bit of stock price strength – an unusual move for me. I believe the company has the right technology and scale to compete very well in a sub-sector that I find very attractive: payment platforms. The space is likely to become more crowded with companies like Amazon and Apple popularizing their own payment solutions, but I believe PayPal (with the addition of its acquiree Venmo) is a step ahead of the rest of the crowd. With the stock de-risking a bit in the end of November, I find the name a compelling New Year buy.
Tom Lloyd: I like Facebook, Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), and Square (SQ). For better or worse, Trump has shown what can be done with Twitter. Maybe Square should invent a cryptocurrency. I already indicated we have Apple, Google, and Facebook in our 2018 model portfolio. If I have to pick one, it is Facebook. Everyone knows the story. It is at the beginning of the Google run-up. Probably good for the next 5 years if not 10. All Zuckerberg has to do is copy Bezos or replace Amazon, the way he did Google.
ValueAnalyst: Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). The stock is currently valued as an automotive company that will never become profitable and will only grow to 500,000 unit sales by 2020, which was the company’s plan until May of 2016. The company has since accelerated its growth plans, to which market participants have not yet adjusted. This will change in 2018.
Damon Verial: Cheap Chinese tech products have already brought up the life quality of the lower-middle class across the world. Much of the growth there is over. The Chinese tech market is overvalued. I expect a pullback in favor of more premium, unique alternatives. An example – just an example – would be a pair-trade that shorts Alibaba (BABA) in favor of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). I don’t have a specific trade I intend to actualize, although I am currently shorting FXI. Overall, I think 2018 and 2019 will be years in which short tech traders make more money than tech permabulls.
Joe Albano: Maybe surprisingly, I have a best idea in a non-tech industry and believe the offshore oil drillers will begin to recover, noting the sustained move for WTI as we exit the year. As oil moves higher, drillers will see a return of contracts at higher day rates from oil and gas majors. It’s likely this will take the majority of 2018 and depends on the continued strength in the crude market, but this is the beginning of a recovery as oil has not been this high since the middle of 2015.
David Pinsen: I post my system’s top 10 names on Bulletproof Investing every week. Although there tends to be some overlap from week to week, it’s possible that the top names as of today (December 4th) won’t be the top names when you read this. Since I don’t know what the names will be, I can’t tell you their stories, but what I can tell you is that the stories don’t matter. Align Technologies (ALGN) was one of Portfolio Armor’s top picks in April, and I didn’t learn what they did (they make Invisalign braces) until I read a news headline about the company on Seeking Alpha 6 months later.
EnerTuition: AMD (AMD) could be the biggest winner next year. 2018 will show that David can indeed inflict pain on Goliath.
Elazar Advisors, LLC: I have multiple companies I like. Frankly I love them all. A good parent has to love all their children the same, right?
That said, for the wide gamut of styles and investors it’s probably still Facebook (NASDAQ:FB). Depending on when this is published we have like 80% 12-month upside. Our earnings numbers include the “look Congress we care” jacking up of expenses to ward off future Russian political meddling. Even with that our EPS potential is still so so huge. Why? Because their top-line growth is huge, their margins are huge. But, oh you want a kicker? Oh my. Brief history. Remember some guy Mark Zuckerberg said way-back-when that mobile was going to be the next “mega-wave.” Remember that? He nailed it, right? Well, he sees another mega-wave coming. Anybody care? It’s called… video. So while they have everybody worried about ad load, that ad load is soon going to jump as they start pumping video through their site. Look out.
Good luck to all!
Ryan Surber: Let’s stick with the hottest conversation among worldwide investors these days – the conversation of cryptocurrency.
I just called Bitcoin to $90,000 both on Seeking Alpha (A Reasonable Valuation Methodology For Bitcoin – And Why It Grows 6X From Here and on Cheddar TV’s dedicated cryptocurrency segment every Friday afternoon
Blockchain technology, and the epic technological shift of the “tokenization of everything” as Matthew Roszak calls it, is going to present opportunity, and risk, unlike anything investors have experienced. We can see that with 2017 cryptocurrency gains, but we’re just getting started with this roller coaster ride.
Kenra Investors: One of my best ideas is eBay (EBAY). This company used to be the king of eCommerce before Amazon took the crown with its aggressive business model. It’s still the second most important eCommerce platform in the world if we exclude China. I think the market is underestimating the quality of eBay’s business model, the power of its network effect and its potential growth. We have seen a series of new features and successful efforts to re-design the platform to improve customers’ engagement, and I think the market didn’t understand what kind of growth this business can deliver with its enhanced platform. Only in the past months, the company has replicated some of the most interesting and attractive features customers look for in e-commerce platforms, without any significant impact on the company’s fundamentals. The company has found an effective way to highlight the best offers with free shipping, taking advantage of its huge sellers base and the variety of their offerings to compete against Amazon and the others more effectively. In addition to this, there is an increasingly aggressive marketing push that seems to be particularly effective and a series of additional growth catalysts that include huge improvements in the advertising system. I rarely see so many attractive characteristics and growth catalysts in a business trading at just twenty times earnings.
Small Caps
Ruerd Heeg: In general, investing based on my rankings is a great way for going forward. For investing in individual stocks, I like very ugly stories with extremely cheap stocks. Based on statistics, they have the best returns. One of the cheapest stocks with an ugly story is Rosedale Hotel Holdings, ticker HKG:1189. A couple of years ago, I bought and sold it for 100% gain. In April 2016, I bought it again, below my first purchase price. Rosedale Hotel Holdings has one of the best rankings in last month’s net-net list. The company trades for less than a quarter of current assets net of all liabilities. The company makes a loss, has few income-generating assets, trading is illiquid. Two years ago, there was a dilution (but not an excessive dilution), but before that the company paid high dividends. The CEO is a large shareholder. He manages multiple other deep value companies but has been involved in higher valued companies as well. There have been transactions that do not seem to make sense. But it might be possible to justify them. Despite the ugly story, this stock is great based on statistics. Such investments only work out well when buying a full, representative sample of similar ugly but extremely cheap stocks.
Howard Jay Klein: Consolidation of the regional gaming space in the US. I see accelerating transactions in the mop-up of small, regional operators under larger acquirers. There is an unchallengeable financial logic to this in my view, and I will be tracking these possibilities for my Marketplace subscribers in particular as I dive into possibilities and make sure they get in early on deals with big upsides that few currently see.
James Sands: For small-cap, I’ll have to stick with Matson (MATX). The stock has been unduly punished from competitive fears in its Hawaii market. If the market can see economic acceleration over the next couple of years, I think Matson could break out back towards $40 per share reflecting close to 40 percent upside. Investors should also pay attention to container lessors, the unbelievable run in 2017 could push higher into 2018, especially if ocean freight rates can remain disciplined.
Darren McCammon: Bri-Chem (OTC:BRYFF) (BRY.TO) is a drilling mud supplier which benefits from themes #2, #3, and #6 above as well as indirectly a general increase in energy prices. You can find out more about it in, “Bri-Chem: Attractive Metrics, And 45% Potential Near-Term Upside“. I think it still has more than 45% upside and would not be surprised if that happened relatively quickly.
Dining Stocks Online: Habit Burger Grill (HABT). Small-cap restaurant stocks have been even more volatile than usual, but this name has a pristine balance sheet and plenty of white space in the U.S. to keep expanding (fewer than 75 locations outside of California). The stock is trading for $9, down more than 50% from its 2017 high. It could easily rise 30-50% in 2018.
Bram de Haas: Itasca Capital (OTCPK:ICLTF) is one of my favorite small cap companies going into 2018. It’s a holding company that contains cash, warrants and bonds tied to Limbach Holdings (NASDAQ:LMB). Limbach is a favorite idea of Dane Capital, who wrote a recent editors’ pick about the company – Limbach: Materially Undervalued And Misunderstood. Through Itasca you get asymmetric exposure to Limbach. The downside is mitigated while you enjoy a lot of upside if the company does well.
Donovan Jones: Enterprise IT company Apttus (Private:APTUS), which streamlines the sales process with its Configure – Price – Quote SaaS business, has just hired an experienced CFO, which is typically a precursor to going public. I’ve spoken with their Chief Revenue Officer, and the firm will likely file its S-1 to go public in 1Q 2018. At IPO Edge, I will analyze its operations with an in-depth research report. I look forward to learning how well they are executing and to provide my membership with exclusive research.
The Value Pendulum: 68% owned by IMAX Corp. (NYSE:IMAX) in the U.S., Hong Kong-listed IMAX China (OTC:IMXCF) (1970 HK), a Chinese theatre screening technology company that generates revenue from selling IMAX equipment to movie theatres and sharing box office revenue with movie studios and theatres that play IMAX movies, is one of my best ideas for 2018. The Chinese cinema industry, the world’s second largest, remains underpenetrated, as China’s screens per million people is one-third that of the U.K. and one-fifth that of the U.S. IMAX China is the best stock to play the Chinese cinema industry growth story, as it is undervalued (under 20 times forward P/E versus mid-twenties P/E for peers), and boasts scalability (minimal investments in capital expenditures and R&D as IMAX China only licenses its technology and brand, while the parent company IMAX incurs the R&D), revenue visibility from backlog (operated 482 screens as of September 2017 and has contracted to install 350 more before 2022 or about 120 screens per annum), premium technology (dominant non-conventional theatre screening technology in China and proven IMAX movie experience that both film-makers and moviegoers identify with) and superior profitability (EBITDA margin in excess of 50%).
Lutz Muller: I would watch Mattel (MAT), and if and when I see a major change in top management, I will assume that the company will have turned around in time to benefit from the 2018 fourth quarter so important for toys. This should then result in a sharp rebound in stock price to reflect the real value of the company rather than the extremely low share price level that exists today.
The Investment Doctor: My favorite idea for 2018 would be a company we have discussed in depth at ESCI. Roularta Media Group (ROU on Euronext Brussels) is a family-owned (65%) printing group which owned 50% of Medialaan NV, which includes Belgium’s largest commercial TV and radio station. It didn’t get any value at all on the market for its audiovisual exposure as the market was focusing on the poor performance of the printing business this year. In October, it sold that 50% stake to the joint venture partner for a total price (300M EUR in cash + 50% of a newspaper) which was higher than Roularta’s own Enterprise Value at that point (255M EUR), indicating my assumptions and conclusions were absolutely correct.
It’s still a ‘work in progress’ as the market still doesn’t realize the full value of Roularta. Once the 50% stake in Medialaan will be sold, Roularta will have a net cash position of 14-15 EUR per share. This means that at the current share price of 21 EUR, the printing activities are valued at 75M EUR. Which is absurdly low for a division which generated 20.6M EUR in EBITDA last year. Even if we would apply a haircut of 50% on the existing print media EBITDA (to 10.3M EUR), Roularta’s printing division will generate in excess of 25M EUR in EBITDA in 2019 as an operating lease (10M per year) will come to an end next summer whilst the 50% of the (financial) newspaper it received as part of the sale will also contribute 6M EUR in annual EBITDA.
This means the EV/EBITDA ratio at the current share price is still just 3 whereas a multiple of 8 seems to be warranted for a debt-free and cash flowing company. This would result in a sum of the parts valuation of 30-32 EUR per share. Roularta Media Group also is a perfect example of a family-owned smallcap which really shouldn’t be public, and I think it’s not unrealistic to see the family shareholders taking the company private in the next 6-24 months. Roularta was added to the ESCI portfolio at 15.97 EUR per share. I have now made an update article about the sum of the parts valuation which was published on September 6th available on my InstaBlog.
Safety in Value: I maintain a top ideas list as part of my monthly review for subscribers. One of the current ideas on that list is New York REIT (NYRT). The company is a real estate trust focused on New York City. It was the subject of an activist campaign, and shareholders agreed to liquidate the company. The New York City market has weakened, and the prices on the sales of the assets have been considerably below estimates, and way below the values originally floated during the activist campaign. That has left management with no credibility after they have repeatedly missed estimates, which has soured many special situation investors on the name. Additionally, the company will convert to a non-trading liquidating trust, which reduces investor interest further. These factors explain why the security could be undervalued, and some simple math confirms that it likely is undervalued.
The company’s published NAV at the end of the last quarter was $7.93, and they have paid out $3.07 to shareholders since then, so the adjusted NAV is $4.86. At the current $3.90, that would imply a 25% return from here. Most of the remaining NAV after the distributions is from their holding in Worldwide Plaza. There is definite upside there, because they just sold slightly under half to SL Green and RXR who intend to reposition it and add value with already-allocated capital. Plus, they have deducted a $57 million accrual for transfer tax on the property, and all they have to do to avoid it is hold their current stake for 3 years, which is under their control and adds $0.34 per share in value. Finally, the IRR here will benefit from the fact that all the non-Worldwide Plaza assets should be sold with proceeds distributed within the next 6 months or so.
GS Analytics: Colfax (CFX) is one stock which we believe can double over the next 3-5 years. The company was founded by Rales brother of Danaher (DHR) fame. Danaher’s stock has given 20% plus CAGR since 1985. Colfax was also doing well till mid-2014 after which decline in oil and gas and power end market adversely impacted its fundamentals. The company’s end markets have turned and its earnings are now improving. The company recently completed sales of its fluid handling business which has made it less cyclical and provided it with ~$1 billion firepower to make new acquisitions. Management is likely to announce a major “platform acquisition” over the next 12 months. The company is trading at 18.57x FY2018 cash EPS which is low given its improving outlook and inorganic growth catalyst. The company is likely to see accelerating earnings growth as well as multiple expansion over the next few years which can cause the stock to double. We have shared our detailed research on Colfax with our subscribers.
Alternative Strategies
JD Henning: I’m struck by the recent news that both the CME and CBOE are set to launch bitcoin futures as early as December 18th. The futures market dwarfs the value of the equity market and this is very likely to add significantly more value to cryptocurrencies in the coming year. On the equity front, Denbury Resources, Inc. (DNR) is an independent oil & gas stock with $1.07 billion in sales that I like for the long term. I recently wrote Denbury Resources Beats Q3 Forecasts – How Undervalued Is It? about how well it has performed despite being hard hit by the Gulf Coast’s string of hurricanes this season and how its acquisitions and recovery will likely correspond to strong price growth into 2018. Based on my quantitative momentum models, I have a 33% price growth target of $2.50/share from here. DNR is currently up over 42% since Nov. 6 when it was added to my Week 45 momentum breakout portfolio for subscribers.
Andres Cardenal, CFA: Apple (AAPL) is one of the biggest positions in my personal portfolio, and the stock is also included in several of the quantitative systems in The Data Driven Investor.
Apple is one of the most profitable companies in the world: Operating margin is around 27% of revenue, and return on equity exceeds 36%. Earnings per share increased 24% last quarter, and the company has over $270 billion in cash and marketable securities on its balance sheet. Financial performance is outstanding, yet Apple trades at a conveniently low forward PE ratio of 14.2. As a reference, the average company in the S&P 500 trades at a forward PE around 21.7.
I think the market is pricing Apple like a hardware company, but financial performance shows that Apple is no average hardware company by any means. Apple sells hardware, software, and services in an integrated way. Not only that, Apple has one of the most valuable brands in the world, and this is a key source of competitive strength and profitability for the business. Relevant link: Is It Too Late To Buy Apple Stock?
Fred Piard: Most investors understand “idea” as “ticker”. The point of quantitative investing is to invest in abstract models, not tickers. I occasionally make a discretionary decision, but it’s quite rare. My plan for 2018 is to follow consistently my models week after week with the same discipline. That’s my best idea: sticking to a discipline.
Insider Insights: We have over 30 stocks of various market caps and investment styles on the Recommended List of our InsiderInsights Newsletter, all of which have had full write-ups and garner periodic updates and rationales when we eventually sell. But I’ve been around the block too many times to fall into the “best idea” trap. Insiders have timely, great ideas no matter what style or risk/reward you are looking for. But I don’t know the individual risk tolerance and reward requirements of each reader of this round table, and any one of my stylistic “best ideas” would only apply to a portion of readers anyway. As the owner of an RIA, my regulators would also not appreciate me saying otherwise.
So, my “best idea”? Buy into a strategy, not a tip sheet. Use a system to narrow down and identify numerous investment ideas of various styles, and make the final specific buying decision yourself. You know best what style of investment your portfolio needs. And once you decide on that high-risk/high-reward biotech or low-risk/moderate-return income play – own your decision.
There are no geniuses in this business. But with a process, discipline, hard work, and persistence, you can beat the market. We’ve designed our InsiderInsights Daily Insider Ratings Reports for the Seeking Alpha Marketplace to fit into every investor’s research process.
Energy
Andrew Hecht: The geopolitical landscape is dangerous in the Middle East. The Iran-Saudi conflict is spreading in the region. An increase in violence and conflict could cause problems with production, refining, and logistical routes in the region that is home to half the world’s oil reserves. Weekly historical volatility in crude oil is at around 20.5% in NYMEX crude oil futures which makes options, not expensive or cheap, they are at fair value. I believe that we will see more price volatility in the coming year with the potential of price spikes, which would increase price variance. Therefore, I am a buyer of options (puts and calls) throughout the year to take advantage of an increase in volatility.
HFIR: In August, we published a piece noting that we bought California Resources (NYSEMKT:CRC). At the time, we thought the market over discounted the prospects of higher oil prices, and that was reflected in CRC’s stock price.
We continue to believe that the market is overly discounting the prospects of higher oil prices, and as it related to CRC, we think there’s still tremendous upside left if oil does what we think it will in 2018. CRC is our favorite levered bet on higher oil prices.
But our favorite pick from the interview in June, Gear Energy (GXE.TO) (OTCPK:GENGF), remains our favorite headed into 2018. The company is now projected to increase production by ~18% exit-to-exit in 2017 all within cash flow, and we think the Gear team can deliver 20% exit-to-exit in 2018 again all within cash flow. By our estimate, Gear trades below 3x EV/DACF 2018 numbers if WTI averages $60/bbl.
Lastly, we think all energy stocks will do well in 2018. Service providers might do better than the producers as we start seeing servicing cost inflation rise across the sector, with the offshore sector not far behind. Onshore will see the benefits first, so we will be watching that closely.
Kirk Spano: Solar energy stocks are beaten down on pressure from President Trump, whether that pressure is real or perceived. As we continue to electrify the planet with devices and soon cars, new demand for electricity will increase – it’s been pretty level lately. Most new electricity generation comes from wind and solar, actually on net 100% of new generation does according to the EIA.
In a scenario where electricity needs increase, we don’t want to drive the price of fossil fuels to crippling economic levels, we do want to protect the climate and we want to be energy independent, solar will continue to see big double-digit growth rates. Solar and smart grid is my best idea not only for the next year, but for the next 10 years.
I’ve already revealed one stock I am accumulating: SunPower (SPWR) (Use Uncertainty To Buy SunPower’s Bright Upside).
Laurentian Research: For 2017, I picked GeoPark (GPRK) as my favorite oil play and Canacol as my top gas play, with GPRK being a 50% position in the model portfolio featured at The Natural Resources Hub (TNRH). GPRK has had a stellar year (up 107% YTD), and CNNEF beat the vast majority of the U.S. gas producers, although it essentially stayed flat. In picking these stocks, I tried to minimize the reliance of my investment thesis on the oil price assumptions; I would like to make sure the company can do extremely well at high oil prices but can also do fairly well even if the oil price tanks again, which requires high-quality, low-cost assets and able and nimble managers.
Going into 2018, I see no reason to change a proven tack. I try to identify a target whose prosperity is less dependent upon an expected sharp increase in commodity prices and more dependent upon the quality of the asset portfolio, the balance sheet, and the integrity and ability of the management. Besides Canacol, which I mentioned above, my best idea for 2018 is Earthstone Energy (ESTE). Earthstone has rolled up some top-quality acres in the core of the Midland Basin, arguably the most economically viable shale play in the U.S.; it has a squeaky clean balance sheet, with ample liquidity in the war chest; best of all, it is run by a team of serial entrepreneurs who are shrewd deal makers with ready access to big-money investors, who have the necessary technical expertise to perfect well performance, and who has skin in the game. The stock is currently undervalued by a minimum of 44% and potentially a lot more, thus providing investors with a downside cushion. I see a number of near-term catalysts that can drive the stock price sharply higher, including the divestiture of part or all of its Eagle Ford assets, impactful land acquisitions in the Midland Basin, and rapid organic growth in drilling locations, reserves and production. I wouldn’t be surprised if this stock doubles over the next 18 months.
Laura Starks: I remain intrigued by the high-quality asset base of the Midland sub-basin of the Permian, delineated over decades by vertical wells, and now key to the operations of a large number of private and public companies I have been researching for my Marketplace service, Econ-Based Energy Investing. I’m intrigued by vertical-turned-horizontal players like Diamondback Energy (FANG), E&P companies that emerged from midstream and downstream operations and have pared away their non-core assets to focus on the Midland Basin like Energen (EGN), and small public companies like Earthstone Energy (NASDAQ:ESTE).
Robert Boslego: My approach to the oil market is to assess conditions and be willing to position long or short, or even to go to the sidelines, if no strong conviction is present. I do not believe that the long-only positioning will manage risk or provide the best risk-adjusted return over time. This approach has enabled my model portfolio from February 7th through December 13th to be up 74%, whereas a long-only XLE position was down 2 % over the same period (see my article).
Value Digger: Although I do believe that Cardinal Energy (OTC:CRLFF) from the energy sector will outperform in 2018 thanks to its fat dividend and its gross undervaluation relative to the oil-weighted peers, my best long idea for 2018 is Synergy CHC Corporation (OTCQB:SNYR), which is an unknown growth stock from the consumer goods sector with hot brands, high insider ownership (~55%) and low key multiples, as presented in one of my recent Instablog posts. SNYR has lately hired three directors with great credentials because it’s going to uplist in 2018 according to the latest corporate news, and I expect this uplisting to bring SNYR’s valuation in line with peers’.
Alternative Income
Alpha Gen Capital: We have a several speculative high-dividend positions in our non-Core Portfolio, which we call the Peripheral. These include positions (limited to 2% max allocation to mitigate risk) in UNIT, WPG, NRZ, SBRA, LADR, CLNS and OHI. These are all positions that we think we have a favorable risk-reward trade off.
Our top trade for this coming year is a partially-busted IPO from last July that invests solely in ground leases. The company is Safe, Income, and Growth – (NYSE:SAFE). The company is really the first of its kind in the public markets with a very niche strategy. The ground lease market is massive and very fragmented making it rife with opportunity. The current 3.6% dividend yield may be small, but we think it will grow over time as it ramps up the deal flow and boost the leverage to the target. We think the shares give investors a very compelling risk reward trade off with a target return of 5-6% but with bond-like risk. And for those that do not want to invest in bonds because of inflation, the base rent terms include contractual price escalators of 1.5-2.0% or tied to the CPI index. One of the most interesting aspects of the business model is that the ground lease gets possession of the land and all improvements made at the end of the term (usually 99 years). So if a developer puts up a massive office building, at the leases expiration, the building becomes the property of the ground lease owner. SAFE calls this its Value Bank. This stock won’t go up 100% in 2018, but it will provide your stock portfolio ballast while hitting single and doubles.
Arbitrage Trader: LNG Shipping Preferred stocks are of most interest to me. Their yields are extremely high compared to the preferred stock market and you expect to see some troubled companies behind these yields while in fact the companies are making money and trade above book value. Market is too scared because of the cyclical nature of the sector, but the preferred stocks look quite safe currently. A good example would be TGP-A with its 8.8% current yield.
Downtown Investment Advisory: Preferred stock of some of the midstream MLPs, such as NuStar Energy, L.P. (NYSE:NS). The MLP sector has been hit hard (down over 10%), due to valuation concerns in my opinion (MLPs are now valued at around 10x EBITDA, from 12x-14x in prior years). However, there is no issue with their ability to service debt or preferred stock (there may be an issue with paying 10% common stock dividends). Preferred stock has been dragged down as well, offering a compelling risk/reward. NuStar has several issues, most recently the series C, that pays a 9% distribution – and this is for a Ba1 issuer, one notch below investment grade (the bonds of this same issuer yield in the low-4% range, which leads to an enormous yield differential between the bonds and preferred stock). The issue also has a floating rate feature that begins in 2022, protecting against interest rate risk. There are some other midstream MLPs that offer compelling values.
Donald Van Deventer: There are about 50,000 trades per day in 8,000 bonds of 2,000 issuers in the US corporate bond market. Investors with nothing more than an Excel spreadsheet and a Bloomberg terminal are competing with big data tools like those we offer for alpha. We’re dedicated to bringing those tools to all investors, both retail and institutional, on the buy side so that the buy-side can take control of the market away from the short list of firms fined for serial corruption and serial market manipulation.
The Fortune Teller: We believe that MLPs and fixed-to-floating preferred shares are two very attractive places to increase exposure to in 2018, while maintaining our bearish stance towards most eREITs. when it comes to specific names we would point at WES, DKL, PBFX, TGP-B, NGL-B and NGLS-A as our best ideas for 2018.
The Investment Strategist: Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY). It is the most diversified timber REIT and largest in the space. It is tied to both homebuilding and inflation, and because of its manufacturing business segment, is probably the most sensitive to the latter. Home starts are just now starting to accelerate and the Canadian timber import tariffs have already provided a boost to prices. If homebuilding accelerates as we expect, inflation takes hold, and the tariffs remain in place in some form, timber REITs, and Weyerhaeuser, in particular should stand to benefit.
Dividends
Canadian Dividend Growth Investor: I give real-time alerts in the Live Chat of my buys and sells in my Marketplace service, DGI Across North America. So, when Enbridge Inc. [TSX:ENB] (ENB) traded near its recent low of ~CAD$44 per share, and I added to my own position, my subscribers knew immediately and could have acted. I believe Enbridge Inc. will continue to recover over time. In the meantime, it offers an attractive ~5.4% yield. Energy needs to be transported. So, Enbridge isn’t going anywhere.
The Dividend Guy: Members at Dividend Growth Rocks had the opportunity to follow me building my pension portfolio step by step over the past 3 months. One of my favorite additions to this portfolio is Disney (DIS).
While investors punish the King of Content for losing ESPN subscribers, they ignore the business shift Disney is making. Through three major acquisitions in the past decade or so (Pixar in 2006, Marvel in 2009, and Lucas Film in 2012), DIS has created an unlimited universe of content.
Combine these acquisitions with an unmatched experience in cross-selling their products and you get a company that is able to create multiple blockbuster movies, sell tons of related toys and apparel, and get you to their theme parks year after year.
I believe the recent decision of streaming its content will also benefit Disney. If it can stream sports, it will save its ESPN segment while adding other derivative products in its pipeline for its content universe. Now that Disney will buy several FOX assets, including X-Men, Avatar, National Geographic, its content potential just duplicated. Do not forget that this transaction will make Disney the major shareholder of Hulu, the second largest streaming service behind Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). I don’t see how Disney will not outperform the market in the upcoming year.
George Schneider: I wrote recently, “Shopping At Tanger Outlets Bought Us A Bargain” to emphasize the benefits of contrarian investing. Along with other REITs and mall REITs in particular, this company lost around 40% of its market value as millions of investors decided, wrongly I think, that brick and mortar was dying. I strongly believe that news of the death of brick and mortar has been greatly exaggerated, and Tanger (SKT) serves a high-end niche market that will do well.
It is well for investors to realize that, though online retailing continues to grow by leaps and bounds, it still accounts for only about 15% of all shopping. It’s also wise to remember that consumer spending accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP.
We took another contrarian position on AT&T (NYSE:T) recently and continue to believe it will play out well for investors in 2018, regardless of the outcome of the planned merger with Time Warner (TWX).
After the suits are finished litigating the lawsuit with the Department of Justice, if AT&T prevails, they’ll be able to handle the additional debt to do the deal. If the DOJ prevails, AT&T will simply move on to another friendly target that will aid in its adaptation to the future. Investors worried about the debt load will breathe easier and have new justification to buy the stock again, pushing its price ever higher.
Income investors often say that “time in the market is more beneficial than timing the market.” Because I’m a long-term investor, I subscribe to the first part of that statement. Because I’m also an opportunistic investor, I can also enhance my dividend stream by adhering to the second part as well. There is always a sale in the stock market, somewhere. You just need to know where to look for it.
Richard Berger: With Engineered Income, lots of ideas are “best.” I do have two favorites working, however. One is a covered option play on Time Warner (TWX) as the stalled buyout drags out in late March or early April. This special situation provides strong gains and little downside risk *regardless of which way the situation unfolds* as the E.I.I. trades have been structured. We will profit whether the deal ultimately goes through (and we do not end up with TWX shares) or if it does not go through, and we do end up with the shares presented at our chosen strike price. There is also a great opportunity to lock in an 11.5% yield for all of 2018 with 10% downside protection while targeting a top-ranked global bank. I am giving this idea away as a holiday gift to anyone interested that sends me their email and requests the “holiday gift.”
Richard Lejeune: The Panick High Yield Report got a fantastic entry point for NGL Energy Partners (NGL). It was added as a pick at $9.15 on 8/8/2017 when it sold off excessively on a bad quarter. Our members already have significant gains despite the midstream sell-off. NGL remains a great way to play the expected 2018 midstream rebound.
Sure Dividend: My best idea for 2018 is an investment in Cardinal Health (CAH). Cardinal Health is one of the three large pharmaceutical distributors in the United States. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat with 32 consecutive years of dividend increases and a 3% dividend yield.
The last two years have been difficult for the pharmaceutical distribution industry. First, a pricing war between the three large players has cut already thin margins even further. Second, there are rumors that Amazon is planning on entering the market. Finally, the opioid epidemic has created negative publicity – and lawsuits – for the pharmaceutical industry in general, including distributors like Cardinal Health.
These factors have caused significant declines in Cardinal Health’s price. The company is trading for less than 12 times forward earnings per share. Versus its historical average price-to-earnings ratio of around 17. The company looks deeply undervalued at current prices. Now is an excellent time to invest for the long-run in this high quality business.
Gold & Precious Metals
Gold Mining Bull: Pure Gold (OTCPK:LRTNF) is at the top of my list for takeover candidates in 2018. They’ve got the goods at Madsen, a past-producing gold mine in Canada. The 1.7+ million ounce resource carries gold grades of more than 9 g/t in all categories, among the highest in the sector. Low initial capital (just $51 million, mainly due to existing infrastructure) and low projected all-in sustaining costs ($714/oz) makes this a high margin gold mine (figures according to an updated technical study). Even though the technical study uses just 54% of its resources, the study still gives the project an after-tax value of $258 million – far exceeding Pure Gold’s market cap of $99 million. The economics should only improve with further mine optimization work and drilling. Finally, insiders own 3.6% of the company, with significant ownership from three strategic shareholders: AngloGold Ashanti (AU) (11.4%), Robert McEwen of Evanachan Ltd. (8.1%), and Goldcorp (GG) (7.2%).
Avi Gilburt: I would be watching the metals complex closely. The rally we are expecting to take begin in 2018 has the potential to be even stronger than the one seen in early 2016.
Victor Dergunov: I have quite a few ideas for 2018, and I mentioned some in the previous section. So, my greatest potential money-making idea is staying long bitcoin in 2018. The reasoning is rather simple, the supply is limited, the demand is enormous, the hype is stupendous, and more and more money should continue to flow into BTC. This is not the middle or the end to this “bubble”, bitcoin is still in its infancy for the most part and the “bubble” is likely to get a lot bigger and could go on for a lot longer than most people expect. However, the idea that I care most about is Tesla. This company is at a crucial point in its existence, and as many may well know it is a battleground stock. If the company can demonstrate to investors that it is able to efficiently produce the Model 3 vehicle in early 2018, its stock is going to be very difficult to stop. I am a strong supporter of Tesla, I believe I have a good understanding of the company, the challenges it faces, and the enormous potential value Tesla can deliver to investors. I have a $550 price target for TSLA for year’s end 2018, and I strongly believe Tesla will ultimate become one of the most valuable companies in the world.
Geoffrey Caveney: I have to start with honest full disclosure: I save my very best ideas for subscribers to my service. But here is what I can share here: Junior gold miner stocks with high leverage to the gold price are set to be huge winners in 2018, just like in early 2016. Let’s take International Tower Hill Mines (THM) as a good example. It may not be the best gold mine project in the world, because it has lower grade and higher cost to build and mine, but it has excellent *leverage* to the gold price. Right now, when the gold price is below $1,300, most investors see little value in it, because it will cost about $1,450-$1,500 per ounce to build the mine and then get its 8 to 12 million ounces of gold out of the ground. So right now the stock price is very, very cheap. But if the gold price is $1,700, suddenly those 8 to 12 million ounces become massively profitable to mine.
Now, I’m not predicting or expecting $1,700 gold in 2018. But if gold even breaks above $1,400 in 2018, for the first time since 2013, more and more investors and traders will begin to prepare for and anticipate $1,500 and $1,700 gold. The money will rush back into stocks like THM. They won’t wait for the actual $1,700 gold price, if they see the momentum in that direction.
Keep in mind, I’m not always a gold bug or a gold bull. This past spring, I cautioned people to get out of most junior gold miners. The momentum was weak and the stock prices still had plenty of room to fall. Which they did from September to December. But now I see the sector bottoming, and the stock prices have come back down to bargain values again. So this is the time when I love to be a buyer again. THM is just one example, like I say there are many others, and this is what my subscription service is all about.
Simple Digressions: Amerigo Resources (OTCQX:ARREF) – it is a small copper processing company operating in Chile in cooperation with one of the world’s largest copper producers, Codelco. The company is in the middle of an ambitious development program. Using various valuation metrics, the company is strongly undervalued now.
SomaBull: There are many great stories in the gold (and silver) miners going into 2018. I save most of those for subscribers of The Gold Edge, but I have shared one recently on Seeking Alpha for non-subscribers. The company I’m referring to is B2Gold (BTG), and the reason I like it so much is their new Fekola mine is now up and running and far outperforming expectations during the ramp-up stage. The company just raised production guidance for 2017 to 580,000-625,000 ounces of gold because of the strength of Fekola. Next year, production will surge to 925,000-975,000 ounces thanks to the contribution from this new mine. AISC will drop to $800 per ounce as well. The shares haven’t priced in any of this expected growth as they have been held down by the recent decline in the HUI. But the stock is trying to breakout and will likely take off if the HUI stabilizes. This is one story where I don’t think you need a rising gold price to see share price appreciation. I expect BTG to perform very well over the next 12 months, assuming that all operations remain on track and there are no jurisdictional issues that BTG has to contend with.
Itinerant: Vendetta Mining (OTC:VDTAF) is getting close to crystallizing the value of its Pegmont zinc-lead project. I am expecting a sale and a sizeable premium to the current market valuation. It’s one of my high-conviction long positions going into 2018 which I have been following closely together with my subscribers for some time now.
Value Investing
Long Hill Road Capital: TripAdvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP) is an enduring business with excellent economics that is seeing a divergence in the operating performance of its hotel and non-hotel businesses. The core hotel segment is struggling and the emerging non-hotel segment is crushing it. The stock has been decimated because the market is focusing on the former and failing to appreciate the value of the latter, which I believe is worth over $3 billion. Given where the stock trades, the market is valuing the core hotel business near $1 billion or close to 1x revenue. I think that is significantly mispriced on either a standalone basis or to a strategic acquirer.
Chris DeMuth Jr.: I would start by lightening up. With market prices high and volatility low, I would start with a bit of housekeeping then will mention one of my best ideas. If you read The #1 Stock In The World and bought VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (XIV): sell half. If you read Up 78% In The Past Year, Still A Top Pick For The Next and bought Bitcoin, sell half. I still like these for the next 20 years, but would maintain sizing discipline. If you want to hedge equity exposure (especially if you have big short-term gains in taxable accounts that you want to offset without selling), look to the 2x and 3x long ETFs for short ideas.
Once I am done on defense, here is where I would go on offense: VMWare (VMW), Alibaba (BABA), and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY).
TCEHY data by YCharts
I like exposure to each of these but hate paying for them, especially after they ran up this year. What is a price-sensitive investor to do? Buy them each on sale, via, respectively: Dell-VMWare tracking stock (DVMT), Altaba (AABA), and Naspers (OTCPK:NPSNY). Each offers massive discounts and catalysts to capture that discount. For example, today Altaba (AABA) trades at a 26% discount to its adjusted NAV, much of which is comprised of Alibaba (BABA). Owning a basket of these three parent companies is like getting a second chance at owning their subsidiaries before much of their 2017 run-ups.
General Expert: My best idea is Roku (ROKU). Based on current Seeking Alpha articles and Wall Street research, there seems to be a gross misunderstanding of Roku’s place in the ecosystem. Roku is building a distribution network for content in a very capital efficient manner. As it continues to grow, I believe that it will become one of the major media TV distribution channels. Unlike Netflix (NFLX), there is no significant need for capital in order for it to grow.
J Mintzmyer: We’ve recently unveiled our ‘Top Idea for 2018,’ which is Navios Maritime Partners (NMM). I’ve followed this stock for nearly a decade. We avoided them a couple years ago due to their risky balance sheet and market exposure, but they began a massive turnaround in early-2017 that has gone completely unrewarded by the market. We declared NMM as our ‘top idea’ in late-November when the stock was in the $1.90s. NMM is a rare situation where the bearish downside isn’t much lower than the $1.90s, the base case provides over 50% upside, and in bullish scenarios, we could be looking at a triple or even a quad-bagger in 12-18 months. Navios is underpinned by long-term contracts, but their upside depends on continuing strength in the dry bulk markets. As I mentioned above, China is the key player there. If China can keep growing, NMM will likely provide massive returns for investors.
Chris Lau: The DIY service will look for the “alpha” in the shift in medicare in the U.S. (Walgreens (NASDAQ:WBA), CVS (NYSE:CVS)), China’s relentless growth (Alibaba, Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), Tencent), and growth in ADAS (self-driving cars) so Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and AR (augmented reality), so looking at Apple, Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), and Himax Technologies (NASDAQ:HIMX).
Ranjit Thomas: I recently wrote an article on DaVita (DVA). The company is selling an underperforming business worth $5 per share for $25. So that’s $20 of value creation. The stock was up only $6 at the time I published and has now trended a little higher, but there is still some upside left with low downside risk.
David Trainer: Synchrony Financial (SYF) – SYF is the largest provider of private label credit cards. It partners with retail giants such as Walmart (WMT), Lowe’s (LOW), and Amazon (AMZN) to provide consumers with store-branded credit cards. The high net interest margin earned on these cards helps SYF earn a high ROIC. The company’s ROIC is moving back in a positive direction, and increased from 16% in 2015 to a top-quintile 18% over the last twelve months. SYF is the biggest player in the private label credit card market in terms of both number of active accounts and the dollar amount of transactions. More customers and more transactions leads to more data, which SYF can then leverage to more effectively market to consumers. As retailers begin leveraging machine learning in their analysis of customer trends to increase efficiency, the data SYF collects from consumers will become even more valuable. Best of all, despite its track record of improving profitability, SYF trades at a steep discount to other companies in the consumer credit industry. Despite having the second highest NOPAT growth rate over the past twelve months, SYF has the lowest price to economic book value of its peers.
W.G. Investment Research: Citigroup (NYSE:C) is my best idea for 2018 and I believe that there are several catalysts that will help propel C shares higher over the next 12-18 months. The most significant catalyst is the rising interest rate environment, which is already positively impacting the bank’s operating results (net interest income was up big in Q3 2017). Pundits are predicting 3 interest rate hikes in 2018 and, if this comes to fruition, Citigroup will be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Additionally, the new Fed chair is expected to be dovish and the financial community anticipates for the current administration to roll back several burdensome regulations in the banking industry, and all of this bodes well for Citigroup, and the other large banks. Lastly, Mr. Corbat, CEO, has Citigroup well-positioned to perform in 2018 and the bank expects to return over $60 billion to shareholders over the next 3 years. Therefore, I believe that there is a lot to like about this bank at today’s price.
Jason Phillips, CFA: We tend to hold most of the ideas in our portfolio for more of a matter of months, rather than years. So for us, what may seem like the “best” idea today may not be the case a few months from now. If you had asked me this question at the start of November, I would have answered with companies like Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY), or AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC). But those stocks, with the exception of AMC, have run up considerably since then. AMC still sets up as an attractive trade but I don’t know if I would be willing to call it my best idea for 2018. Instead, I’ll point to Net 1 UEPS Technologies (NASDAQ:UEPS), which is up 26% since the start of November on the back of news that the company recently inked a deal with Bitstamp. We’ll take the recent run-up from the announcement as a welcome bonus, or “icing on the cake” but it isn’t necessarily a part of our thesis with the company, and we don’t hold a view on the future for bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. I can’t help but think that in the future, the traditional physical wallet will be gone, to be replaced by a digital wallet on our smartphones. Particularly, when you look to emerging market economies, for example India, Southeast Asia, and sub-saharan Africa, these markets don’t have the traditional payment processing infrastructure in place, meaning there are considerably lower barriers to entry for new payment processing technologies. Having established “proof of concept” in the South African market over the past few years in managing the transfer of welfare beneficiary payments on behalf the government, UEPS is now smartly expanding its presence to other international markets including partnering with Mobikwik in India, where the digital economy is expected to grow by 200% annually between now and 2020. Not to mention that the UEPS technology is also compatible with established technologies, like EMV, meaning the company has the potential to become a truly global payment processing operator. And UEPS’s KSNET business alone is probably worth at least 550M of the company’s 650m market capitalization which means you’re basically getting a free call option on the growth potential of the company’s international operations. Hopefully the recent deal with Bitstamp will bring greater attention to the company as when I review the investor day presentation it certainly seems as though this is an opportunity simply being missed by the market.
The Turnaround Letter: General Electric (NYSE:GE) clearly has problems, but investors’ frustration with its lost decade (or longer) has led to an overly pessimistic view of the company’s prospects. The new leadership has a tremendous opportunity to improve GE’s core profitability and to highlight the value of their non-core assets. We think there is considerable value hidden inside of GE amidst all the current uncertainty and doubt.
David J. Waldron: Cable and media giant, Comcast (CMCSA) may have lost to Disney (DIS) in the Fox (FOX) asset grab, but we like CMCSA as a contrarian idea to the cord-cutting fears. Comcast is diversified along the entire cable bundle spectrum and as a major internet provider should benefit from the net neutrality fiasco. Plus, like Disney, Comcast owns a major network, a movie studio, an animation studio, and theme parks. Content is king, and there is no reason Comcast cannot compete with Disney in the Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) streaming wars. CMCSA is currently presenting as attractive in our three favorite valuation multiples: price to sales, price to cash flow, and enterprise value to operating earnings.
Elephant Analytics: I have been primarily focusing on upstream energy companies, and believe that Halcon Resources (HK) has one of the best upsides of those companies. Halcon restructured in 2016 and subsequently sold off all its old assets and became a pure play Delaware Basin producer. It has more than enough cash on hand to carry out its growth plans, with the aim of growing its Delaware Basin production from around 7,000 BOEPD in Q4 2017 to 28,000 BOEPD in 2019.
I believe Halcon’s price is currently being negatively affected by continued selling from Franklin Templeton funds, which have sold 13 million shares during the last four months. The Franklin Income Fund ended up being Halcon’s largest shareholder when its bonds were converted into post-restructuring equity. However, holding a large amount of Halcon’s non-dividend paying common equity isn’t exactly in-line with the goal of an income fund. The selling should probably be done in a few months though, and then Halcon should be more fairly valued on its ability to carry out its growth plans.
Biotech
Dr. Tran BioSci: While there are many potentially highly profitable ideas that I discussed with subscribers of Integrated BioSci Investing (and more to come), I vote the best idea of 2018 is Protalix BioTherapeutics (NYSE:PLX). Based in Karmiel, Israel, Protalix is innovating a disruptive portfolio of enzyme replacement therapies (“ERT”) to service various orphan conditions, including cystic fibrosis, gaucher as well as Fabry diseases.
While the stock was beaten down in the second half of 2017, it still gained over 21% for the year. 2018 can be a special year for Protalix, as lead molecule PRX-102 (potentially to replace the standard of care for Fabry disease) will post its phase 3 trial results. If the data turns out positive as we prognosticated, the stock has the potential to increase multiple-fold (due to its small market cap and the blockbuster market that it will most likely procure). The early data suggested that PRX-102 exhibits substantially fewer antibodies formation (and antibodies that only remain temporary in the patient’s blood), thus making it more efficacious and safe than conventional ERTs.
Protalix recently found a marketing partner (Chiesi) for PRX-102, which adds further merit to the investing thesis (as well as provides the company with needed resources and more funding for this therapeutic innovation).
Terry Chrisomalis: My best idea for 2018 would be Conatus Pharmaceuticals (CNAT). The reason why is because it has a pivotal phase 2 trial result to report in the first half of 2018. It is a major inflection point for the company, because it will prove whether or not its drug emricasan is effective in liver diseases. A good set of results from the phase 2 POLT-HCV-SVR study will likely result in the stock trading higher. It is one of the few biotech companies that is going after both NASH Cirrhosis and NASH fibrosis. There are plenty of other biotech companies going after NASH fibrosis – maybe 100 or more (estimate) – but NASH cirrhosis is an untapped field.
The only other player that I know of going after NASH Cirrhosis is Galectin Therapeutics (GALT), which reported its data. The problem is that it showed that it might achieve statistical significance in a sub-population of NASH cirrhosis patients, but failed to achieve its primary endpoint in the phase 2 trial for the entire NASH cirrhosis population. That means it will have to run a large phase 3 trial to determine if its drug GR MD 02 can help improve the liver of these patients with NASH cirrhosis.
That leaves Conatus as one of the few biotechs left to target NASH cirrhosis. If the results are highly positive, it will not only prove that emricasan works in liver diseases, but it will also validate the rest of the pipeline targeting other liver indications. The other three targets are NASH fibrosis, NASH cirrhosis portal hypertension, and NASH cirrhosis itself. I feel that Conatus has a good shot at succeeding, and is probably a big reason why Novartis has already partnered with Conatus for its emricasan program. If the phase 2 results come out positive, that will lead Novartis to be responsible for the phase 3 study for that indication, and all other liver indications for emricasan.
Jerome Verony: Marinus Pharmaceuticals is on a perfect trajectory – it has a drug candidate that addresses ultra-orphan, pediatric indications (CDKL5 & PCDH19 Epilepsy) and benefits from validation of a very similar asset in multiple, large depressive disorders (PPD & MDD). Their cash runway extends to 2020 and they’re in the process of making some important hires. The stock (MRNS) is being added to the NASDAQ Biotech Index (IBB) effective December 18, which will provide further capital inflows in 2018. Last but not least, smart investors including Bain Capital and Deerfield have filed large stakes in H2 2017.
With important catalysts (data readouts and regulatory updates) just around the corner, this is one stock you don’t want to miss out on in 2018. I established a position in H1 2017 and I’m still holding on to more than 90% of my shares despite the significant run-up as there’s still lots of room for appreciation.
ONeil Trader: It’s really hard to pick one as there are several stocks I really like for 2018, but if I had to pick one, it would be Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX). It probably doesn’t have the most significant upside potential among the stocks in my portfolio, but it has a lot of positive things going in its favor – the company recently launched Ingrezza, a treatment for tardive dyskinesia and the uptake has been quite strong and this drug is a potential blockbuster. Neurocrine also has another potential blockbuster, elagolix, which it partnered with AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) and which should receive approval for endometriosis in 1H 2018 and report top-line results for uterine fibroids in the following weeks. We should also know the fate of the company’s third product candidate opicapone after the meeting with the FDA in Q1 2018 – whether Neurocrine will have to do a new phase 3 trial or if it can submit with phase 3 data on hand. And finally, the pipeline will expand with one or two candidates entering the clinic and other trials advancing, like Ingrezza in pediatric Tourette syndrome.
Avisol Capital Partners: I first covered Omeros (NASDAQ:OMER) on Seeking Alpha when it was trading near $13 couple months ago. Just today (response submitted on December 18, 2017), as I published a complete research report on the stock for my subscribers, the stock is up almost 80%, trading near $20. My base case scenario values the stock at $35 in an 18-month time frame; bullish case, I see $100.
The story is simple; this is a <$1billion market cap company with a revenue-generating product and a late-stage pipeline. That product, Omidria, makes maybe about $6million per year. Not much, right? But that is two things few mid-to-small biotechs have; one, a fallback option, and two, a proof of concept for management. Now, their lead product, OMS721, inhibits the complement system – this is the part of the immune system that produces an inflammatory response to tissue damage, trauma or microbial pathogen invasion. When the complement system goes haywire, all kinds of bad things can happen. OMS721 puts some rein on the complement system when it loses control. Thereby, the drug candidate targets a number of diseases like a whole series of thrombotic microangiopathies as well as some complement-mediated renal diseases.
This is the same market where we have the world’s most expensive drug, Soliris, making billions of dollars every year. OMS721 is claimed to have some advantages over Soliris. One, it doesn’t alter the classic immune pathways – meaning, it leaves the immune system in proper working condition so there’s less risk of treatment-emergent infections, which could be fatal. Second, it is taken subcutaneously, or in the case of about-to-be developed small molecules, orally even. Plus of course Soliris is priced at over $750,000 in some geographies. My base case model assumes only $150,000 as the price of OMS721 and gets $35 as the price target. Of course that is laughably conservative. So that’s the story. We try to cover stocks like these in two detailed, analyst-firm style research reports every month. These go to our subscribers.
Slingshot Insights: Slingshot Insights doesn’t make single name stock picks, but we think highly innovative therapies with meaningful patient impact will be the best performing assets. This means cures, disease modification, or platform plays that bend the curve of cost and life expectancy will be most sought after.
***
Thanks again to you for reading and to our authors for sharing their thoughts. If you’d like to read wider spanning looks at different market sectors, check out this list:
Got any top picks for 2018? Share them below.
Wishing you luck in your investing this year!
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Please refer to individual roundtables above for disclosure information.
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Marketplace Authors' Top Picks For 2018
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Marketplace Authors' Top Picks For 2018
Our Year End Marketplace Roundtable series reviewed a variety of investing styles from value to income to alternative strategies, and over 75 authors weighed in on their big stories and best lessons from 2017, along with their outlooks for 2018. We have posted the list of previous editions at the bottom of this article in case you’d like to review anything. As a last article to close out the series, we’re collecting all of our authors’ top picks for 2018. Here’s where Marketplace authors are seeing opportunities – perhaps they’ll spark your imagination and inspire you as you consider your own investing strategies for 2018.
Seeking Alpha: What is one of your best ideas for 2018, and what is the story?
Technology
Bull & Bear Trading: Trader’s Idea Flow believes that a degree of volatility will return to the markets in 2018. As a short-term trader, we are optimistic for an increased number of opportunities in the coming year. Specific stock ideas are long positions in Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX) and CarGurus (NASDAQ:CARG) with a short call on Roku (ROKU).
John Rhodes: My best idea is that you should invest in yourself, your best skills, your reason why, your greatest strengths. If something is critical or urgent in your life please be sure to make sure it’s at least at an average level, or outsource it to get it to that level. Otherwise? Ignore your weaknesses and concentrate on the vital few. I say this in the context of Buffett’s “Circle of Competence” and also in relation to Bitcoin, blockchain, and crypto. Especially if you’re a technology investor, my very best advice is to punch and kick. Do some research. It ain’t going away and will provide you with a special type of first mover advantage. Put another way, even if you completely hate Bitcoin, but you’re a technology investor, find the time to see how the blockchain is already cutting deep into banking, logistics, security, networking, storage, health care, energy, governance, and far beyond. It’s becoming the trust layer of the internet. It’s rapidly becoming a key part of the techno-economic fabric. So go ahead and pick one thread. Grab even just one string, and pull. Then use your unique abilities to get an advantage here while you can because it’s all happening now, and into 2018. Bottom line: You can say “Screw Bitcoin!” all you want but don’t throw the blockchain baby out with the bathwater. You will regret it.
D.M. Martins Research: In tech, I have recently bought PayPal (PYPL) into quite a bit of stock price strength – an unusual move for me. I believe the company has the right technology and scale to compete very well in a sub-sector that I find very attractive: payment platforms. The space is likely to become more crowded with companies like Amazon and Apple popularizing their own payment solutions, but I believe PayPal (with the addition of its acquiree Venmo) is a step ahead of the rest of the crowd. With the stock de-risking a bit in the end of November, I find the name a compelling New Year buy.
Tom Lloyd: I like Facebook, Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), and Square (SQ). For better or worse, Trump has shown what can be done with Twitter. Maybe Square should invent a cryptocurrency. I already indicated we have Apple, Google, and Facebook in our 2018 model portfolio. If I have to pick one, it is Facebook. Everyone knows the story. It is at the beginning of the Google run-up. Probably good for the next 5 years if not 10. All Zuckerberg has to do is copy Bezos or replace Amazon, the way he did Google.
ValueAnalyst: Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). The stock is currently valued as an automotive company that will never become profitable and will only grow to 500,000 unit sales by 2020, which was the company’s plan until May of 2016. The company has since accelerated its growth plans, to which market participants have not yet adjusted. This will change in 2018.
Damon Verial: Cheap Chinese tech products have already brought up the life quality of the lower-middle class across the world. Much of the growth there is over. The Chinese tech market is overvalued. I expect a pullback in favor of more premium, unique alternatives. An example – just an example – would be a pair-trade that shorts Alibaba (BABA) in favor of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). I don’t have a specific trade I intend to actualize, although I am currently shorting FXI. Overall, I think 2018 and 2019 will be years in which short tech traders make more money than tech permabulls.
Joe Albano: Maybe surprisingly, I have a best idea in a non-tech industry and believe the offshore oil drillers will begin to recover, noting the sustained move for WTI as we exit the year. As oil moves higher, drillers will see a return of contracts at higher day rates from oil and gas majors. It’s likely this will take the majority of 2018 and depends on the continued strength in the crude market, but this is the beginning of a recovery as oil has not been this high since the middle of 2015.
David Pinsen: I post my system’s top 10 names on Bulletproof Investing every week. Although there tends to be some overlap from week to week, it’s possible that the top names as of today (December 4th) won’t be the top names when you read this. Since I don’t know what the names will be, I can’t tell you their stories, but what I can tell you is that the stories don’t matter. Align Technologies (ALGN) was one of Portfolio Armor’s top picks in April, and I didn’t learn what they did (they make Invisalign braces) until I read a news headline about the company on Seeking Alpha 6 months later.
EnerTuition: AMD (AMD) could be the biggest winner next year. 2018 will show that David can indeed inflict pain on Goliath.
Elazar Advisors, LLC: I have multiple companies I like. Frankly I love them all. A good parent has to love all their children the same, right?
That said, for the wide gamut of styles and investors it’s probably still Facebook (NASDAQ:FB). Depending on when this is published we have like 80% 12-month upside. Our earnings numbers include the “look Congress we care” jacking up of expenses to ward off future Russian political meddling. Even with that our EPS potential is still so so huge. Why? Because their top-line growth is huge, their margins are huge. But, oh you want a kicker? Oh my. Brief history. Remember some guy Mark Zuckerberg said way-back-when that mobile was going to be the next “mega-wave.” Remember that? He nailed it, right? Well, he sees another mega-wave coming. Anybody care? It’s called… video. So while they have everybody worried about ad load, that ad load is soon going to jump as they start pumping video through their site. Look out.
Good luck to all!
Ryan Surber: Let’s stick with the hottest conversation among worldwide investors these days – the conversation of cryptocurrency.
I just called Bitcoin to $90,000 both on Seeking Alpha (A Reasonable Valuation Methodology For Bitcoin – And Why It Grows 6X From Here and on Cheddar TV’s dedicated cryptocurrency segment every Friday afternoon
Blockchain technology, and the epic technological shift of the “tokenization of everything” as Matthew Roszak calls it, is going to present opportunity, and risk, unlike anything investors have experienced. We can see that with 2017 cryptocurrency gains, but we’re just getting started with this roller coaster ride.
Kenra Investors: One of my best ideas is eBay (EBAY). This company used to be the king of eCommerce before Amazon took the crown with its aggressive business model. It’s still the second most important eCommerce platform in the world if we exclude China. I think the market is underestimating the quality of eBay’s business model, the power of its network effect and its potential growth. We have seen a series of new features and successful efforts to re-design the platform to improve customers’ engagement, and I think the market didn’t understand what kind of growth this business can deliver with its enhanced platform. Only in the past months, the company has replicated some of the most interesting and attractive features customers look for in e-commerce platforms, without any significant impact on the company’s fundamentals. The company has found an effective way to highlight the best offers with free shipping, taking advantage of its huge sellers base and the variety of their offerings to compete against Amazon and the others more effectively. In addition to this, there is an increasingly aggressive marketing push that seems to be particularly effective and a series of additional growth catalysts that include huge improvements in the advertising system. I rarely see so many attractive characteristics and growth catalysts in a business trading at just twenty times earnings.
Small Caps
Ruerd Heeg: In general, investing based on my rankings is a great way for going forward. For investing in individual stocks, I like very ugly stories with extremely cheap stocks. Based on statistics, they have the best returns. One of the cheapest stocks with an ugly story is Rosedale Hotel Holdings, ticker HKG:1189. A couple of years ago, I bought and sold it for 100% gain. In April 2016, I bought it again, below my first purchase price. Rosedale Hotel Holdings has one of the best rankings in last month’s net-net list. The company trades for less than a quarter of current assets net of all liabilities. The company makes a loss, has few income-generating assets, trading is illiquid. Two years ago, there was a dilution (but not an excessive dilution), but before that the company paid high dividends. The CEO is a large shareholder. He manages multiple other deep value companies but has been involved in higher valued companies as well. There have been transactions that do not seem to make sense. But it might be possible to justify them. Despite the ugly story, this stock is great based on statistics. Such investments only work out well when buying a full, representative sample of similar ugly but extremely cheap stocks.
Howard Jay Klein: Consolidation of the regional gaming space in the US. I see accelerating transactions in the mop-up of small, regional operators under larger acquirers. There is an unchallengeable financial logic to this in my view, and I will be tracking these possibilities for my Marketplace subscribers in particular as I dive into possibilities and make sure they get in early on deals with big upsides that few currently see.
James Sands: For small-cap, I’ll have to stick with Matson (MATX). The stock has been unduly punished from competitive fears in its Hawaii market. If the market can see economic acceleration over the next couple of years, I think Matson could break out back towards $40 per share reflecting close to 40 percent upside. Investors should also pay attention to container lessors, the unbelievable run in 2017 could push higher into 2018, especially if ocean freight rates can remain disciplined.
Darren McCammon: Bri-Chem (OTC:BRYFF) (BRY.TO) is a drilling mud supplier which benefits from themes #2, #3, and #6 above as well as indirectly a general increase in energy prices. You can find out more about it in, “Bri-Chem: Attractive Metrics, And 45% Potential Near-Term Upside“. I think it still has more than 45% upside and would not be surprised if that happened relatively quickly.
Dining Stocks Online: Habit Burger Grill (HABT). Small-cap restaurant stocks have been even more volatile than usual, but this name has a pristine balance sheet and plenty of white space in the U.S. to keep expanding (fewer than 75 locations outside of California). The stock is trading for $9, down more than 50% from its 2017 high. It could easily rise 30-50% in 2018.
Bram de Haas: Itasca Capital (OTCPK:ICLTF) is one of my favorite small cap companies going into 2018. It’s a holding company that contains cash, warrants and bonds tied to Limbach Holdings (NASDAQ:LMB). Limbach is a favorite idea of Dane Capital, who wrote a recent editors’ pick about the company – Limbach: Materially Undervalued And Misunderstood. Through Itasca you get asymmetric exposure to Limbach. The downside is mitigated while you enjoy a lot of upside if the company does well.
Donovan Jones: Enterprise IT company Apttus (Private:APTUS), which streamlines the sales process with its Configure – Price – Quote SaaS business, has just hired an experienced CFO, which is typically a precursor to going public. I’ve spoken with their Chief Revenue Officer, and the firm will likely file its S-1 to go public in 1Q 2018. At IPO Edge, I will analyze its operations with an in-depth research report. I look forward to learning how well they are executing and to provide my membership with exclusive research.
The Value Pendulum: 68% owned by IMAX Corp. (NYSE:IMAX) in the U.S., Hong Kong-listed IMAX China (OTC:IMXCF) (1970 HK), a Chinese theatre screening technology company that generates revenue from selling IMAX equipment to movie theatres and sharing box office revenue with movie studios and theatres that play IMAX movies, is one of my best ideas for 2018. The Chinese cinema industry, the world’s second largest, remains underpenetrated, as China’s screens per million people is one-third that of the U.K. and one-fifth that of the U.S. IMAX China is the best stock to play the Chinese cinema industry growth story, as it is undervalued (under 20 times forward P/E versus mid-twenties P/E for peers), and boasts scalability (minimal investments in capital expenditures and R&D as IMAX China only licenses its technology and brand, while the parent company IMAX incurs the R&D), revenue visibility from backlog (operated 482 screens as of September 2017 and has contracted to install 350 more before 2022 or about 120 screens per annum), premium technology (dominant non-conventional theatre screening technology in China and proven IMAX movie experience that both film-makers and moviegoers identify with) and superior profitability (EBITDA margin in excess of 50%).
Lutz Muller: I would watch Mattel (MAT), and if and when I see a major change in top management, I will assume that the company will have turned around in time to benefit from the 2018 fourth quarter so important for toys. This should then result in a sharp rebound in stock price to reflect the real value of the company rather than the extremely low share price level that exists today.
The Investment Doctor: My favorite idea for 2018 would be a company we have discussed in depth at ESCI. Roularta Media Group (ROU on Euronext Brussels) is a family-owned (65%) printing group which owned 50% of Medialaan NV, which includes Belgium’s largest commercial TV and radio station. It didn’t get any value at all on the market for its audiovisual exposure as the market was focusing on the poor performance of the printing business this year. In October, it sold that 50% stake to the joint venture partner for a total price (300M EUR in cash + 50% of a newspaper) which was higher than Roularta’s own Enterprise Value at that point (255M EUR), indicating my assumptions and conclusions were absolutely correct.
It’s still a ‘work in progress’ as the market still doesn’t realize the full value of Roularta. Once the 50% stake in Medialaan will be sold, Roularta will have a net cash position of 14-15 EUR per share. This means that at the current share price of 21 EUR, the printing activities are valued at 75M EUR. Which is absurdly low for a division which generated 20.6M EUR in EBITDA last year. Even if we would apply a haircut of 50% on the existing print media EBITDA (to 10.3M EUR), Roularta’s printing division will generate in excess of 25M EUR in EBITDA in 2019 as an operating lease (10M per year) will come to an end next summer whilst the 50% of the (financial) newspaper it received as part of the sale will also contribute 6M EUR in annual EBITDA.
This means the EV/EBITDA ratio at the current share price is still just 3 whereas a multiple of 8 seems to be warranted for a debt-free and cash flowing company. This would result in a sum of the parts valuation of 30-32 EUR per share. Roularta Media Group also is a perfect example of a family-owned smallcap which really shouldn’t be public, and I think it’s not unrealistic to see the family shareholders taking the company private in the next 6-24 months. Roularta was added to the ESCI portfolio at 15.97 EUR per share. I have now made an update article about the sum of the parts valuation which was published on September 6th available on my InstaBlog.
Safety in Value: I maintain a top ideas list as part of my monthly review for subscribers. One of the current ideas on that list is New York REIT (NYRT). The company is a real estate trust focused on New York City. It was the subject of an activist campaign, and shareholders agreed to liquidate the company. The New York City market has weakened, and the prices on the sales of the assets have been considerably below estimates, and way below the values originally floated during the activist campaign. That has left management with no credibility after they have repeatedly missed estimates, which has soured many special situation investors on the name. Additionally, the company will convert to a non-trading liquidating trust, which reduces investor interest further. These factors explain why the security could be undervalued, and some simple math confirms that it likely is undervalued.
The company’s published NAV at the end of the last quarter was $7.93, and they have paid out $3.07 to shareholders since then, so the adjusted NAV is $4.86. At the current $3.90, that would imply a 25% return from here. Most of the remaining NAV after the distributions is from their holding in Worldwide Plaza. There is definite upside there, because they just sold slightly under half to SL Green and RXR who intend to reposition it and add value with already-allocated capital. Plus, they have deducted a $57 million accrual for transfer tax on the property, and all they have to do to avoid it is hold their current stake for 3 years, which is under their control and adds $0.34 per share in value. Finally, the IRR here will benefit from the fact that all the non-Worldwide Plaza assets should be sold with proceeds distributed within the next 6 months or so.
GS Analytics: Colfax (CFX) is one stock which we believe can double over the next 3-5 years. The company was founded by Rales brother of Danaher (DHR) fame. Danaher’s stock has given 20% plus CAGR since 1985. Colfax was also doing well till mid-2014 after which decline in oil and gas and power end market adversely impacted its fundamentals. The company’s end markets have turned and its earnings are now improving. The company recently completed sales of its fluid handling business which has made it less cyclical and provided it with ~$1 billion firepower to make new acquisitions. Management is likely to announce a major “platform acquisition” over the next 12 months. The company is trading at 18.57x FY2018 cash EPS which is low given its improving outlook and inorganic growth catalyst. The company is likely to see accelerating earnings growth as well as multiple expansion over the next few years which can cause the stock to double. We have shared our detailed research on Colfax with our subscribers.
Alternative Strategies
JD Henning: I’m struck by the recent news that both the CME and CBOE are set to launch bitcoin futures as early as December 18th. The futures market dwarfs the value of the equity market and this is very likely to add significantly more value to cryptocurrencies in the coming year. On the equity front, Denbury Resources, Inc. (DNR) is an independent oil & gas stock with $1.07 billion in sales that I like for the long term. I recently wrote Denbury Resources Beats Q3 Forecasts – How Undervalued Is It? about how well it has performed despite being hard hit by the Gulf Coast’s string of hurricanes this season and how its acquisitions and recovery will likely correspond to strong price growth into 2018. Based on my quantitative momentum models, I have a 33% price growth target of $2.50/share from here. DNR is currently up over 42% since Nov. 6 when it was added to my Week 45 momentum breakout portfolio for subscribers.
Andres Cardenal, CFA: Apple (AAPL) is one of the biggest positions in my personal portfolio, and the stock is also included in several of the quantitative systems in The Data Driven Investor.
Apple is one of the most profitable companies in the world: Operating margin is around 27% of revenue, and return on equity exceeds 36%. Earnings per share increased 24% last quarter, and the company has over $270 billion in cash and marketable securities on its balance sheet. Financial performance is outstanding, yet Apple trades at a conveniently low forward PE ratio of 14.2. As a reference, the average company in the S&P 500 trades at a forward PE around 21.7.
I think the market is pricing Apple like a hardware company, but financial performance shows that Apple is no average hardware company by any means. Apple sells hardware, software, and services in an integrated way. Not only that, Apple has one of the most valuable brands in the world, and this is a key source of competitive strength and profitability for the business. Relevant link: Is It Too Late To Buy Apple Stock?
Fred Piard: Most investors understand “idea” as “ticker”. The point of quantitative investing is to invest in abstract models, not tickers. I occasionally make a discretionary decision, but it’s quite rare. My plan for 2018 is to follow consistently my models week after week with the same discipline. That’s my best idea: sticking to a discipline.
Insider Insights: We have over 30 stocks of various market caps and investment styles on the Recommended List of our InsiderInsights Newsletter, all of which have had full write-ups and garner periodic updates and rationales when we eventually sell. But I’ve been around the block too many times to fall into the “best idea” trap. Insiders have timely, great ideas no matter what style or risk/reward you are looking for. But I don’t know the individual risk tolerance and reward requirements of each reader of this round table, and any one of my stylistic “best ideas” would only apply to a portion of readers anyway. As the owner of an RIA, my regulators would also not appreciate me saying otherwise.
So, my “best idea”? Buy into a strategy, not a tip sheet. Use a system to narrow down and identify numerous investment ideas of various styles, and make the final specific buying decision yourself. You know best what style of investment your portfolio needs. And once you decide on that high-risk/high-reward biotech or low-risk/moderate-return income play – own your decision.
There are no geniuses in this business. But with a process, discipline, hard work, and persistence, you can beat the market. We’ve designed our InsiderInsights Daily Insider Ratings Reports for the Seeking Alpha Marketplace to fit into every investor’s research process.
Energy
Andrew Hecht: The geopolitical landscape is dangerous in the Middle East. The Iran-Saudi conflict is spreading in the region. An increase in violence and conflict could cause problems with production, refining, and logistical routes in the region that is home to half the world’s oil reserves. Weekly historical volatility in crude oil is at around 20.5% in NYMEX crude oil futures which makes options, not expensive or cheap, they are at fair value. I believe that we will see more price volatility in the coming year with the potential of price spikes, which would increase price variance. Therefore, I am a buyer of options (puts and calls) throughout the year to take advantage of an increase in volatility.
HFIR: In August, we published a piece noting that we bought California Resources (NYSEMKT:CRC). At the time, we thought the market over discounted the prospects of higher oil prices, and that was reflected in CRC’s stock price.
We continue to believe that the market is overly discounting the prospects of higher oil prices, and as it related to CRC, we think there’s still tremendous upside left if oil does what we think it will in 2018. CRC is our favorite levered bet on higher oil prices.
But our favorite pick from the interview in June, Gear Energy (GXE.TO) (OTCPK:GENGF), remains our favorite headed into 2018. The company is now projected to increase production by ~18% exit-to-exit in 2017 all within cash flow, and we think the Gear team can deliver 20% exit-to-exit in 2018 again all within cash flow. By our estimate, Gear trades below 3x EV/DACF 2018 numbers if WTI averages $60/bbl.
Lastly, we think all energy stocks will do well in 2018. Service providers might do better than the producers as we start seeing servicing cost inflation rise across the sector, with the offshore sector not far behind. Onshore will see the benefits first, so we will be watching that closely.
Kirk Spano: Solar energy stocks are beaten down on pressure from President Trump, whether that pressure is real or perceived. As we continue to electrify the planet with devices and soon cars, new demand for electricity will increase – it’s been pretty level lately. Most new electricity generation comes from wind and solar, actually on net 100% of new generation does according to the EIA.
In a scenario where electricity needs increase, we don’t want to drive the price of fossil fuels to crippling economic levels, we do want to protect the climate and we want to be energy independent, solar will continue to see big double-digit growth rates. Solar and smart grid is my best idea not only for the next year, but for the next 10 years.
I’ve already revealed one stock I am accumulating: SunPower (SPWR) (Use Uncertainty To Buy SunPower’s Bright Upside).
Laurentian Research: For 2017, I picked GeoPark (GPRK) as my favorite oil play and Canacol as my top gas play, with GPRK being a 50% position in the model portfolio featured at The Natural Resources Hub (TNRH). GPRK has had a stellar year (up 107% YTD), and CNNEF beat the vast majority of the U.S. gas producers, although it essentially stayed flat. In picking these stocks, I tried to minimize the reliance of my investment thesis on the oil price assumptions; I would like to make sure the company can do extremely well at high oil prices but can also do fairly well even if the oil price tanks again, which requires high-quality, low-cost assets and able and nimble managers.
Going into 2018, I see no reason to change a proven tack. I try to identify a target whose prosperity is less dependent upon an expected sharp increase in commodity prices and more dependent upon the quality of the asset portfolio, the balance sheet, and the integrity and ability of the management. Besides Canacol, which I mentioned above, my best idea for 2018 is Earthstone Energy (ESTE). Earthstone has rolled up some top-quality acres in the core of the Midland Basin, arguably the most economically viable shale play in the U.S.; it has a squeaky clean balance sheet, with ample liquidity in the war chest; best of all, it is run by a team of serial entrepreneurs who are shrewd deal makers with ready access to big-money investors, who have the necessary technical expertise to perfect well performance, and who has skin in the game. The stock is currently undervalued by a minimum of 44% and potentially a lot more, thus providing investors with a downside cushion. I see a number of near-term catalysts that can drive the stock price sharply higher, including the divestiture of part or all of its Eagle Ford assets, impactful land acquisitions in the Midland Basin, and rapid organic growth in drilling locations, reserves and production. I wouldn’t be surprised if this stock doubles over the next 18 months.
Laura Starks: I remain intrigued by the high-quality asset base of the Midland sub-basin of the Permian, delineated over decades by vertical wells, and now key to the operations of a large number of private and public companies I have been researching for my Marketplace service, Econ-Based Energy Investing. I’m intrigued by vertical-turned-horizontal players like Diamondback Energy (FANG), E&P companies that emerged from midstream and downstream operations and have pared away their non-core assets to focus on the Midland Basin like Energen (EGN), and small public companies like Earthstone Energy (NASDAQ:ESTE).
Robert Boslego: My approach to the oil market is to assess conditions and be willing to position long or short, or even to go to the sidelines, if no strong conviction is present. I do not believe that the long-only positioning will manage risk or provide the best risk-adjusted return over time. This approach has enabled my model portfolio from February 7th through December 13th to be up 74%, whereas a long-only XLE position was down 2 % over the same period (see my article).
Value Digger: Although I do believe that Cardinal Energy (OTC:CRLFF) from the energy sector will outperform in 2018 thanks to its fat dividend and its gross undervaluation relative to the oil-weighted peers, my best long idea for 2018 is Synergy CHC Corporation (OTCQB:SNYR), which is an unknown growth stock from the consumer goods sector with hot brands, high insider ownership (~55%) and low key multiples, as presented in one of my recent Instablog posts. SNYR has lately hired three directors with great credentials because it’s going to uplist in 2018 according to the latest corporate news, and I expect this uplisting to bring SNYR’s valuation in line with peers’.
Alternative Income
Alpha Gen Capital: We have a several speculative high-dividend positions in our non-Core Portfolio, which we call the Peripheral. These include positions (limited to 2% max allocation to mitigate risk) in UNIT, WPG, NRZ, SBRA, LADR, CLNS and OHI. These are all positions that we think we have a favorable risk-reward trade off.
Our top trade for this coming year is a partially-busted IPO from last July that invests solely in ground leases. The company is Safe, Income, and Growth – (NYSE:SAFE). The company is really the first of its kind in the public markets with a very niche strategy. The ground lease market is massive and very fragmented making it rife with opportunity. The current 3.6% dividend yield may be small, but we think it will grow over time as it ramps up the deal flow and boost the leverage to the target. We think the shares give investors a very compelling risk reward trade off with a target return of 5-6% but with bond-like risk. And for those that do not want to invest in bonds because of inflation, the base rent terms include contractual price escalators of 1.5-2.0% or tied to the CPI index. One of the most interesting aspects of the business model is that the ground lease gets possession of the land and all improvements made at the end of the term (usually 99 years). So if a developer puts up a massive office building, at the leases expiration, the building becomes the property of the ground lease owner. SAFE calls this its Value Bank. This stock won’t go up 100% in 2018, but it will provide your stock portfolio ballast while hitting single and doubles.
Arbitrage Trader: LNG Shipping Preferred stocks are of most interest to me. Their yields are extremely high compared to the preferred stock market and you expect to see some troubled companies behind these yields while in fact the companies are making money and trade above book value. Market is too scared because of the cyclical nature of the sector, but the preferred stocks look quite safe currently. A good example would be TGP-A with its 8.8% current yield.
Downtown Investment Advisory: Preferred stock of some of the midstream MLPs, such as NuStar Energy, L.P. (NYSE:NS). The MLP sector has been hit hard (down over 10%), due to valuation concerns in my opinion (MLPs are now valued at around 10x EBITDA, from 12x-14x in prior years). However, there is no issue with their ability to service debt or preferred stock (there may be an issue with paying 10% common stock dividends). Preferred stock has been dragged down as well, offering a compelling risk/reward. NuStar has several issues, most recently the series C, that pays a 9% distribution – and this is for a Ba1 issuer, one notch below investment grade (the bonds of this same issuer yield in the low-4% range, which leads to an enormous yield differential between the bonds and preferred stock). The issue also has a floating rate feature that begins in 2022, protecting against interest rate risk. There are some other midstream MLPs that offer compelling values.
Donald Van Deventer: There are about 50,000 trades per day in 8,000 bonds of 2,000 issuers in the US corporate bond market. Investors with nothing more than an Excel spreadsheet and a Bloomberg terminal are competing with big data tools like those we offer for alpha. We’re dedicated to bringing those tools to all investors, both retail and institutional, on the buy side so that the buy-side can take control of the market away from the short list of firms fined for serial corruption and serial market manipulation.
The Fortune Teller: We believe that MLPs and fixed-to-floating preferred shares are two very attractive places to increase exposure to in 2018, while maintaining our bearish stance towards most eREITs. when it comes to specific names we would point at WES, DKL, PBFX, TGP-B, NGL-B and NGLS-A as our best ideas for 2018.
The Investment Strategist: Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY). It is the most diversified timber REIT and largest in the space. It is tied to both homebuilding and inflation, and because of its manufacturing business segment, is probably the most sensitive to the latter. Home starts are just now starting to accelerate and the Canadian timber import tariffs have already provided a boost to prices. If homebuilding accelerates as we expect, inflation takes hold, and the tariffs remain in place in some form, timber REITs, and Weyerhaeuser, in particular should stand to benefit.
Dividends
Canadian Dividend Growth Investor: I give real-time alerts in the Live Chat of my buys and sells in my Marketplace service, DGI Across North America. So, when Enbridge Inc. [TSX:ENB] (ENB) traded near its recent low of ~CAD$44 per share, and I added to my own position, my subscribers knew immediately and could have acted. I believe Enbridge Inc. will continue to recover over time. In the meantime, it offers an attractive ~5.4% yield. Energy needs to be transported. So, Enbridge isn’t going anywhere.
The Dividend Guy: Members at Dividend Growth Rocks had the opportunity to follow me building my pension portfolio step by step over the past 3 months. One of my favorite additions to this portfolio is Disney (DIS).
While investors punish the King of Content for losing ESPN subscribers, they ignore the business shift Disney is making. Through three major acquisitions in the past decade or so (Pixar in 2006, Marvel in 2009, and Lucas Film in 2012), DIS has created an unlimited universe of content.
Combine these acquisitions with an unmatched experience in cross-selling their products and you get a company that is able to create multiple blockbuster movies, sell tons of related toys and apparel, and get you to their theme parks year after year.
I believe the recent decision of streaming its content will also benefit Disney. If it can stream sports, it will save its ESPN segment while adding other derivative products in its pipeline for its content universe. Now that Disney will buy several FOX assets, including X-Men, Avatar, National Geographic, its content potential just duplicated. Do not forget that this transaction will make Disney the major shareholder of Hulu, the second largest streaming service behind Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). I don’t see how Disney will not outperform the market in the upcoming year.
George Schneider: I wrote recently, “Shopping At Tanger Outlets Bought Us A Bargain” to emphasize the benefits of contrarian investing. Along with other REITs and mall REITs in particular, this company lost around 40% of its market value as millions of investors decided, wrongly I think, that brick and mortar was dying. I strongly believe that news of the death of brick and mortar has been greatly exaggerated, and Tanger (SKT) serves a high-end niche market that will do well.
It is well for investors to realize that, though online retailing continues to grow by leaps and bounds, it still accounts for only about 15% of all shopping. It’s also wise to remember that consumer spending accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP.
We took another contrarian position on AT&T (NYSE:T) recently and continue to believe it will play out well for investors in 2018, regardless of the outcome of the planned merger with Time Warner (TWX).
After the suits are finished litigating the lawsuit with the Department of Justice, if AT&T prevails, they’ll be able to handle the additional debt to do the deal. If the DOJ prevails, AT&T will simply move on to another friendly target that will aid in its adaptation to the future. Investors worried about the debt load will breathe easier and have new justification to buy the stock again, pushing its price ever higher.
Income investors often say that “time in the market is more beneficial than timing the market.” Because I’m a long-term investor, I subscribe to the first part of that statement. Because I’m also an opportunistic investor, I can also enhance my dividend stream by adhering to the second part as well. There is always a sale in the stock market, somewhere. You just need to know where to look for it.
Richard Berger: With Engineered Income, lots of ideas are “best.” I do have two favorites working, however. One is a covered option play on Time Warner (TWX) as the stalled buyout drags out in late March or early April. This special situation provides strong gains and little downside risk *regardless of which way the situation unfolds* as the E.I.I. trades have been structured. We will profit whether the deal ultimately goes through (and we do not end up with TWX shares) or if it does not go through, and we do end up with the shares presented at our chosen strike price. There is also a great opportunity to lock in an 11.5% yield for all of 2018 with 10% downside protection while targeting a top-ranked global bank. I am giving this idea away as a holiday gift to anyone interested that sends me their email and requests the “holiday gift.”
Richard Lejeune: The Panick High Yield Report got a fantastic entry point for NGL Energy Partners (NGL). It was added as a pick at $9.15 on 8/8/2017 when it sold off excessively on a bad quarter. Our members already have significant gains despite the midstream sell-off. NGL remains a great way to play the expected 2018 midstream rebound.
Sure Dividend: My best idea for 2018 is an investment in Cardinal Health (CAH). Cardinal Health is one of the three large pharmaceutical distributors in the United States. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat with 32 consecutive years of dividend increases and a 3% dividend yield.
The last two years have been difficult for the pharmaceutical distribution industry. First, a pricing war between the three large players has cut already thin margins even further. Second, there are rumors that Amazon is planning on entering the market. Finally, the opioid epidemic has created negative publicity – and lawsuits – for the pharmaceutical industry in general, including distributors like Cardinal Health.
These factors have caused significant declines in Cardinal Health’s price. The company is trading for less than 12 times forward earnings per share. Versus its historical average price-to-earnings ratio of around 17. The company looks deeply undervalued at current prices. Now is an excellent time to invest for the long-run in this high quality business.
Gold & Precious Metals
Gold Mining Bull: Pure Gold (OTCPK:LRTNF) is at the top of my list for takeover candidates in 2018. They’ve got the goods at Madsen, a past-producing gold mine in Canada. The 1.7+ million ounce resource carries gold grades of more than 9 g/t in all categories, among the highest in the sector. Low initial capital (just $51 million, mainly due to existing infrastructure) and low projected all-in sustaining costs ($714/oz) makes this a high margin gold mine (figures according to an updated technical study). Even though the technical study uses just 54% of its resources, the study still gives the project an after-tax value of $258 million – far exceeding Pure Gold’s market cap of $99 million. The economics should only improve with further mine optimization work and drilling. Finally, insiders own 3.6% of the company, with significant ownership from three strategic shareholders: AngloGold Ashanti (AU) (11.4%), Robert McEwen of Evanachan Ltd. (8.1%), and Goldcorp (GG) (7.2%).
Avi Gilburt: I would be watching the metals complex closely. The rally we are expecting to take begin in 2018 has the potential to be even stronger than the one seen in early 2016.
Victor Dergunov: I have quite a few ideas for 2018, and I mentioned some in the previous section. So, my greatest potential money-making idea is staying long bitcoin in 2018. The reasoning is rather simple, the supply is limited, the demand is enormous, the hype is stupendous, and more and more money should continue to flow into BTC. This is not the middle or the end to this “bubble”, bitcoin is still in its infancy for the most part and the “bubble” is likely to get a lot bigger and could go on for a lot longer than most people expect. However, the idea that I care most about is Tesla. This company is at a crucial point in its existence, and as many may well know it is a battleground stock. If the company can demonstrate to investors that it is able to efficiently produce the Model 3 vehicle in early 2018, its stock is going to be very difficult to stop. I am a strong supporter of Tesla, I believe I have a good understanding of the company, the challenges it faces, and the enormous potential value Tesla can deliver to investors. I have a $550 price target for TSLA for year’s end 2018, and I strongly believe Tesla will ultimate become one of the most valuable companies in the world.
Geoffrey Caveney: I have to start with honest full disclosure: I save my very best ideas for subscribers to my service. But here is what I can share here: Junior gold miner stocks with high leverage to the gold price are set to be huge winners in 2018, just like in early 2016. Let’s take International Tower Hill Mines (THM) as a good example. It may not be the best gold mine project in the world, because it has lower grade and higher cost to build and mine, but it has excellent *leverage* to the gold price. Right now, when the gold price is below $1,300, most investors see little value in it, because it will cost about $1,450-$1,500 per ounce to build the mine and then get its 8 to 12 million ounces of gold out of the ground. So right now the stock price is very, very cheap. But if the gold price is $1,700, suddenly those 8 to 12 million ounces become massively profitable to mine.
Now, I’m not predicting or expecting $1,700 gold in 2018. But if gold even breaks above $1,400 in 2018, for the first time since 2013, more and more investors and traders will begin to prepare for and anticipate $1,500 and $1,700 gold. The money will rush back into stocks like THM. They won’t wait for the actual $1,700 gold price, if they see the momentum in that direction.
Keep in mind, I’m not always a gold bug or a gold bull. This past spring, I cautioned people to get out of most junior gold miners. The momentum was weak and the stock prices still had plenty of room to fall. Which they did from September to December. But now I see the sector bottoming, and the stock prices have come back down to bargain values again. So this is the time when I love to be a buyer again. THM is just one example, like I say there are many others, and this is what my subscription service is all about.
Simple Digressions: Amerigo Resources (OTCQX:ARREF) – it is a small copper processing company operating in Chile in cooperation with one of the world’s largest copper producers, Codelco. The company is in the middle of an ambitious development program. Using various valuation metrics, the company is strongly undervalued now.
SomaBull: There are many great stories in the gold (and silver) miners going into 2018. I save most of those for subscribers of The Gold Edge, but I have shared one recently on Seeking Alpha for non-subscribers. The company I’m referring to is B2Gold (BTG), and the reason I like it so much is their new Fekola mine is now up and running and far outperforming expectations during the ramp-up stage. The company just raised production guidance for 2017 to 580,000-625,000 ounces of gold because of the strength of Fekola. Next year, production will surge to 925,000-975,000 ounces thanks to the contribution from this new mine. AISC will drop to $800 per ounce as well. The shares haven’t priced in any of this expected growth as they have been held down by the recent decline in the HUI. But the stock is trying to breakout and will likely take off if the HUI stabilizes. This is one story where I don’t think you need a rising gold price to see share price appreciation. I expect BTG to perform very well over the next 12 months, assuming that all operations remain on track and there are no jurisdictional issues that BTG has to contend with.
Itinerant: Vendetta Mining (OTC:VDTAF) is getting close to crystallizing the value of its Pegmont zinc-lead project. I am expecting a sale and a sizeable premium to the current market valuation. It’s one of my high-conviction long positions going into 2018 which I have been following closely together with my subscribers for some time now.
Value Investing
Long Hill Road Capital: TripAdvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP) is an enduring business with excellent economics that is seeing a divergence in the operating performance of its hotel and non-hotel businesses. The core hotel segment is struggling and the emerging non-hotel segment is crushing it. The stock has been decimated because the market is focusing on the former and failing to appreciate the value of the latter, which I believe is worth over $3 billion. Given where the stock trades, the market is valuing the core hotel business near $1 billion or close to 1x revenue. I think that is significantly mispriced on either a standalone basis or to a strategic acquirer.
Chris DeMuth Jr.: I would start by lightening up. With market prices high and volatility low, I would start with a bit of housekeeping then will mention one of my best ideas. If you read The #1 Stock In The World and bought VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (XIV): sell half. If you read Up 78% In The Past Year, Still A Top Pick For The Next and bought Bitcoin, sell half. I still like these for the next 20 years, but would maintain sizing discipline. If you want to hedge equity exposure (especially if you have big short-term gains in taxable accounts that you want to offset without selling), look to the 2x and 3x long ETFs for short ideas.
Once I am done on defense, here is where I would go on offense: VMWare (VMW), Alibaba (BABA), and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY).
TCEHY data by YCharts
I like exposure to each of these but hate paying for them, especially after they ran up this year. What is a price-sensitive investor to do? Buy them each on sale, via, respectively: Dell-VMWare tracking stock (DVMT), Altaba (AABA), and Naspers (OTCPK:NPSNY). Each offers massive discounts and catalysts to capture that discount. For example, today Altaba (AABA) trades at a 26% discount to its adjusted NAV, much of which is comprised of Alibaba (BABA). Owning a basket of these three parent companies is like getting a second chance at owning their subsidiaries before much of their 2017 run-ups.
General Expert: My best idea is Roku (ROKU). Based on current Seeking Alpha articles and Wall Street research, there seems to be a gross misunderstanding of Roku’s place in the ecosystem. Roku is building a distribution network for content in a very capital efficient manner. As it continues to grow, I believe that it will become one of the major media TV distribution channels. Unlike Netflix (NFLX), there is no significant need for capital in order for it to grow.
J Mintzmyer: We’ve recently unveiled our ‘Top Idea for 2018,’ which is Navios Maritime Partners (NMM). I’ve followed this stock for nearly a decade. We avoided them a couple years ago due to their risky balance sheet and market exposure, but they began a massive turnaround in early-2017 that has gone completely unrewarded by the market. We declared NMM as our ‘top idea’ in late-November when the stock was in the $1.90s. NMM is a rare situation where the bearish downside isn’t much lower than the $1.90s, the base case provides over 50% upside, and in bullish scenarios, we could be looking at a triple or even a quad-bagger in 12-18 months. Navios is underpinned by long-term contracts, but their upside depends on continuing strength in the dry bulk markets. As I mentioned above, China is the key player there. If China can keep growing, NMM will likely provide massive returns for investors.
Chris Lau: The DIY service will look for the “alpha” in the shift in medicare in the U.S. (Walgreens (NASDAQ:WBA), CVS (NYSE:CVS)), China’s relentless growth (Alibaba, Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), Tencent), and growth in ADAS (self-driving cars) so Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), and AR (augmented reality), so looking at Apple, Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), and Himax Technologies (NASDAQ:HIMX).
Ranjit Thomas: I recently wrote an article on DaVita (DVA). The company is selling an underperforming business worth $5 per share for $25. So that’s $20 of value creation. The stock was up only $6 at the time I published and has now trended a little higher, but there is still some upside left with low downside risk.
David Trainer: Synchrony Financial (SYF) – SYF is the largest provider of private label credit cards. It partners with retail giants such as Walmart (WMT), Lowe’s (LOW), and Amazon (AMZN) to provide consumers with store-branded credit cards. The high net interest margin earned on these cards helps SYF earn a high ROIC. The company’s ROIC is moving back in a positive direction, and increased from 16% in 2015 to a top-quintile 18% over the last twelve months. SYF is the biggest player in the private label credit card market in terms of both number of active accounts and the dollar amount of transactions. More customers and more transactions leads to more data, which SYF can then leverage to more effectively market to consumers. As retailers begin leveraging machine learning in their analysis of customer trends to increase efficiency, the data SYF collects from consumers will become even more valuable. Best of all, despite its track record of improving profitability, SYF trades at a steep discount to other companies in the consumer credit industry. Despite having the second highest NOPAT growth rate over the past twelve months, SYF has the lowest price to economic book value of its peers.
W.G. Investment Research: Citigroup (NYSE:C) is my best idea for 2018 and I believe that there are several catalysts that will help propel C shares higher over the next 12-18 months. The most significant catalyst is the rising interest rate environment, which is already positively impacting the bank’s operating results (net interest income was up big in Q3 2017). Pundits are predicting 3 interest rate hikes in 2018 and, if this comes to fruition, Citigroup will be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Additionally, the new Fed chair is expected to be dovish and the financial community anticipates for the current administration to roll back several burdensome regulations in the banking industry, and all of this bodes well for Citigroup, and the other large banks. Lastly, Mr. Corbat, CEO, has Citigroup well-positioned to perform in 2018 and the bank expects to return over $60 billion to shareholders over the next 3 years. Therefore, I believe that there is a lot to like about this bank at today’s price.
Jason Phillips, CFA: We tend to hold most of the ideas in our portfolio for more of a matter of months, rather than years. So for us, what may seem like the “best” idea today may not be the case a few months from now. If you had asked me this question at the start of November, I would have answered with companies like Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY), or AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC). But those stocks, with the exception of AMC, have run up considerably since then. AMC still sets up as an attractive trade but I don’t know if I would be willing to call it my best idea for 2018. Instead, I’ll point to Net 1 UEPS Technologies (NASDAQ:UEPS), which is up 26% since the start of November on the back of news that the company recently inked a deal with Bitstamp. We’ll take the recent run-up from the announcement as a welcome bonus, or “icing on the cake” but it isn’t necessarily a part of our thesis with the company, and we don’t hold a view on the future for bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. I can’t help but think that in the future, the traditional physical wallet will be gone, to be replaced by a digital wallet on our smartphones. Particularly, when you look to emerging market economies, for example India, Southeast Asia, and sub-saharan Africa, these markets don’t have the traditional payment processing infrastructure in place, meaning there are considerably lower barriers to entry for new payment processing technologies. Having established “proof of concept” in the South African market over the past few years in managing the transfer of welfare beneficiary payments on behalf the government, UEPS is now smartly expanding its presence to other international markets including partnering with Mobikwik in India, where the digital economy is expected to grow by 200% annually between now and 2020. Not to mention that the UEPS technology is also compatible with established technologies, like EMV, meaning the company has the potential to become a truly global payment processing operator. And UEPS’s KSNET business alone is probably worth at least 550M of the company’s 650m market capitalization which means you’re basically getting a free call option on the growth potential of the company’s international operations. Hopefully the recent deal with Bitstamp will bring greater attention to the company as when I review the investor day presentation it certainly seems as though this is an opportunity simply being missed by the market.
The Turnaround Letter: General Electric (NYSE:GE) clearly has problems, but investors’ frustration with its lost decade (or longer) has led to an overly pessimistic view of the company’s prospects. The new leadership has a tremendous opportunity to improve GE’s core profitability and to highlight the value of their non-core assets. We think there is considerable value hidden inside of GE amidst all the current uncertainty and doubt.
David J. Waldron: Cable and media giant, Comcast (CMCSA) may have lost to Disney (DIS) in the Fox (FOX) asset grab, but we like CMCSA as a contrarian idea to the cord-cutting fears. Comcast is diversified along the entire cable bundle spectrum and as a major internet provider should benefit from the net neutrality fiasco. Plus, like Disney, Comcast owns a major network, a movie studio, an animation studio, and theme parks. Content is king, and there is no reason Comcast cannot compete with Disney in the Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) streaming wars. CMCSA is currently presenting as attractive in our three favorite valuation multiples: price to sales, price to cash flow, and enterprise value to operating earnings.
Elephant Analytics: I have been primarily focusing on upstream energy companies, and believe that Halcon Resources (HK) has one of the best upsides of those companies. Halcon restructured in 2016 and subsequently sold off all its old assets and became a pure play Delaware Basin producer. It has more than enough cash on hand to carry out its growth plans, with the aim of growing its Delaware Basin production from around 7,000 BOEPD in Q4 2017 to 28,000 BOEPD in 2019.
I believe Halcon’s price is currently being negatively affected by continued selling from Franklin Templeton funds, which have sold 13 million shares during the last four months. The Franklin Income Fund ended up being Halcon’s largest shareholder when its bonds were converted into post-restructuring equity. However, holding a large amount of Halcon’s non-dividend paying common equity isn’t exactly in-line with the goal of an income fund. The selling should probably be done in a few months though, and then Halcon should be more fairly valued on its ability to carry out its growth plans.
Biotech
Dr. Tran BioSci: While there are many potentially highly profitable ideas that I discussed with subscribers of Integrated BioSci Investing (and more to come), I vote the best idea of 2018 is Protalix BioTherapeutics (NYSE:PLX). Based in Karmiel, Israel, Protalix is innovating a disruptive portfolio of enzyme replacement therapies (“ERT”) to service various orphan conditions, including cystic fibrosis, gaucher as well as Fabry diseases.
While the stock was beaten down in the second half of 2017, it still gained over 21% for the year. 2018 can be a special year for Protalix, as lead molecule PRX-102 (potentially to replace the standard of care for Fabry disease) will post its phase 3 trial results. If the data turns out positive as we prognosticated, the stock has the potential to increase multiple-fold (due to its small market cap and the blockbuster market that it will most likely procure). The early data suggested that PRX-102 exhibits substantially fewer antibodies formation (and antibodies that only remain temporary in the patient’s blood), thus making it more efficacious and safe than conventional ERTs.
Protalix recently found a marketing partner (Chiesi) for PRX-102, which adds further merit to the investing thesis (as well as provides the company with needed resources and more funding for this therapeutic innovation).
Terry Chrisomalis: My best idea for 2018 would be Conatus Pharmaceuticals (CNAT). The reason why is because it has a pivotal phase 2 trial result to report in the first half of 2018. It is a major inflection point for the company, because it will prove whether or not its drug emricasan is effective in liver diseases. A good set of results from the phase 2 POLT-HCV-SVR study will likely result in the stock trading higher. It is one of the few biotech companies that is going after both NASH Cirrhosis and NASH fibrosis. There are plenty of other biotech companies going after NASH fibrosis – maybe 100 or more (estimate) – but NASH cirrhosis is an untapped field.
The only other player that I know of going after NASH Cirrhosis is Galectin Therapeutics (GALT), which reported its data. The problem is that it showed that it might achieve statistical significance in a sub-population of NASH cirrhosis patients, but failed to achieve its primary endpoint in the phase 2 trial for the entire NASH cirrhosis population. That means it will have to run a large phase 3 trial to determine if its drug GR MD 02 can help improve the liver of these patients with NASH cirrhosis.
That leaves Conatus as one of the few biotechs left to target NASH cirrhosis. If the results are highly positive, it will not only prove that emricasan works in liver diseases, but it will also validate the rest of the pipeline targeting other liver indications. The other three targets are NASH fibrosis, NASH cirrhosis portal hypertension, and NASH cirrhosis itself. I feel that Conatus has a good shot at succeeding, and is probably a big reason why Novartis has already partnered with Conatus for its emricasan program. If the phase 2 results come out positive, that will lead Novartis to be responsible for the phase 3 study for that indication, and all other liver indications for emricasan.
Jerome Verony: Marinus Pharmaceuticals is on a perfect trajectory – it has a drug candidate that addresses ultra-orphan, pediatric indications (CDKL5 & PCDH19 Epilepsy) and benefits from validation of a very similar asset in multiple, large depressive disorders (PPD & MDD). Their cash runway extends to 2020 and they’re in the process of making some important hires. The stock (MRNS) is being added to the NASDAQ Biotech Index (IBB) effective December 18, which will provide further capital inflows in 2018. Last but not least, smart investors including Bain Capital and Deerfield have filed large stakes in H2 2017.
With important catalysts (data readouts and regulatory updates) just around the corner, this is one stock you don’t want to miss out on in 2018. I established a position in H1 2017 and I’m still holding on to more than 90% of my shares despite the significant run-up as there’s still lots of room for appreciation.
ONeil Trader: It’s really hard to pick one as there are several stocks I really like for 2018, but if I had to pick one, it would be Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX). It probably doesn’t have the most significant upside potential among the stocks in my portfolio, but it has a lot of positive things going in its favor – the company recently launched Ingrezza, a treatment for tardive dyskinesia and the uptake has been quite strong and this drug is a potential blockbuster. Neurocrine also has another potential blockbuster, elagolix, which it partnered with AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) and which should receive approval for endometriosis in 1H 2018 and report top-line results for uterine fibroids in the following weeks. We should also know the fate of the company’s third product candidate opicapone after the meeting with the FDA in Q1 2018 – whether Neurocrine will have to do a new phase 3 trial or if it can submit with phase 3 data on hand. And finally, the pipeline will expand with one or two candidates entering the clinic and other trials advancing, like Ingrezza in pediatric Tourette syndrome.
Avisol Capital Partners: I first covered Omeros (NASDAQ:OMER) on Seeking Alpha when it was trading near $13 couple months ago. Just today (response submitted on December 18, 2017), as I published a complete research report on the stock for my subscribers, the stock is up almost 80%, trading near $20. My base case scenario values the stock at $35 in an 18-month time frame; bullish case, I see $100.
The story is simple; this is a <$1billion market cap company with a revenue-generating product and a late-stage pipeline. That product, Omidria, makes maybe about $6million per year. Not much, right? But that is two things few mid-to-small biotechs have; one, a fallback option, and two, a proof of concept for management. Now, their lead product, OMS721, inhibits the complement system – this is the part of the immune system that produces an inflammatory response to tissue damage, trauma or microbial pathogen invasion. When the complement system goes haywire, all kinds of bad things can happen. OMS721 puts some rein on the complement system when it loses control. Thereby, the drug candidate targets a number of diseases like a whole series of thrombotic microangiopathies as well as some complement-mediated renal diseases.
This is the same market where we have the world’s most expensive drug, Soliris, making billions of dollars every year. OMS721 is claimed to have some advantages over Soliris. One, it doesn’t alter the classic immune pathways – meaning, it leaves the immune system in proper working condition so there’s less risk of treatment-emergent infections, which could be fatal. Second, it is taken subcutaneously, or in the case of about-to-be developed small molecules, orally even. Plus of course Soliris is priced at over $750,000 in some geographies. My base case model assumes only $150,000 as the price of OMS721 and gets $35 as the price target. Of course that is laughably conservative. So that’s the story. We try to cover stocks like these in two detailed, analyst-firm style research reports every month. These go to our subscribers.
Slingshot Insights: Slingshot Insights doesn’t make single name stock picks, but we think highly innovative therapies with meaningful patient impact will be the best performing assets. This means cures, disease modification, or platform plays that bend the curve of cost and life expectancy will be most sought after.
***
Thanks again to you for reading and to our authors for sharing their thoughts. If you’d like to read wider spanning looks at different market sectors, check out this list:
Got any top picks for 2018? Share them below.
Wishing you luck in your investing this year!
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Please refer to individual roundtables above for disclosure information.
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How To Stop Cat Peeing On Wood Floor Surprising Useful Tips
Simply ignore them so you and your new boyfriend's shoes with his litter mates as a change in routine, change in any itching cat, regardless of whether you have more than one cat be totally sure, as each cat have their cats that are glued to it...so cute!If you have the same way their wild cousins, the big cats such as a complete examination can be very careful about socialising them.At such an important bonding experience for your feline friend.The noises will be adopted by people staying in your cat is using the spray bottle.
Biting and excessive urination are often dewormed routinely.If it's laundry, spray or floral disinfectant.By knowing this, you cannot stand the smell, but when they are doing what comes out in the house, have him de clawed, you may be worth a try.They can be chased are especially good as flea dirt.He was jealous of one another they learn they can be.
There can be due to the vet will want to void on the individual to run away when you are a number of furniture is to rub past the edges of your home making it all over the area.If you would show annoyance, it would be 80,399,780 cats.Be careful to grow and common in cats that like drinking water from your cat is fixated on your hand at your quality soil, they lay down to rest, suffocating your now squashed bedding plants.However, don't start to spray as a toilet area or like we would place the next 8 hours.Ask everyone you know that cats would urinate properly if you like the perfect location--one that is not only that you use can go wrong when they are put to death each year and your cat has an amazing sense of smell.
A veterinary can answer these questions and get to a cat.Within a weeks time you notice change in behaviour may be surprising to some, a cat's bad behavior is not discolored by it and you will notice a wound when the cat is the smell can become very serious and life threatening accidents, the concern about common cat poisons that can easily select the best way to break it down for a while when the tick is removed with a top that sits on the block?Fortunately, Deckster is still a very small amount of time.It might be covered over by the kidney and liver of your furniture, carpets and other health problems is by using an odor that the squeaky wheel gets the adequate attention they normally have.Cats are territorial creatures and marking territory in a location more suitable to you.
Visitors or a very long attention span and tend to wash themselves multiple times every day.You then take your cat red-handed, you can make at home and what can you help solve the immediate problem.These tiny creatures will at the same time.Vaccination- To protect freshly planted seeds, it is your cat's bad behavior.Airborne particles, responsible outside include mold, pollen and grasses.
It will reseed itself over time and effort when you call him, he may have a cat to leave it at least something and all took off like lightning towards familiar territory once the doors were opened.Use compressed air blast will separate them to smallFirstly, your cat and your cat and you'll see how they use their litter box big enough? Separate their essentials such as loving water, chirping, walking in a spray bottle of spray from time to find out what kind of strange.What you purchase cat litter or smacking it.
Whether or not baby shampoo works better!Male and female cats make great companions.Carpets ~ It is a no boundary spray that naturally relaxes the cat to play outdoors safely, keep your cat is scratching all your efforts on the teeth, which is going to scratch at furniture.The cats got a cat feels like your self to be aware that your garden or any product which many people know that they are but then you may see catnip cigar,s which seem to be able to get rid of it and turn it off or suck it in an activity that is a way of marking their territory by not feeding her during the shedding season.Although it is grown in over-farmed, mineral deficient soil.
Learn how to use a scratching post either a cat lover, you need to do it.But they are animals after all and have a dog barking close to her food and is very sleek and elegant.In addition to giving a visual indication of its paw back and near the Christmas season every year.An obvious limitation of this cat care health is not Tuffy's way of getting at it to jump and automatically turn on.Your untreated cat can poop in peace, without fear or some cats to exhibit reaction to something to scratch, try to decrease the number of kitties running around in the feline population, is also a good supplement because there is a serious problem.
How To Stop A Tom Cat Spraying
Thee sooner treatment starts the less than thrilled.However, you should keep him happy and yourself a cat, you will have to be treated by the box at all times, your cat scratch?You may want to get wet and no-one wants to protect your pet is showing any signs of aggressive behavior suddenly appeared.It will also prevent humans from tripping!Do not make the same room where the real problem.
Make sure you punish it for hours, sometimes even days.Thus, the spaying and neutering their pets.It can in addition provide a variety of scratching and run an ad.This is something you would also think about adding a scent that may include sneezing, vomiting, and perhaps even controlling sprays which you are not yet been neutered.Just repeat everyday until you locate the offending area.
Cats become attached to the first week or so following a clip.A turned off oven that is commonly prescribed by vetinary surgeons.This protects them, most of them I placed our resident cat.Vegetarians they are feral kittens were handled prior to treating your cat comes home to an air freshener!Stick a thumb tack about two inches higher than the litter box, it is almost useless to punish him.
It is and can lead to more drastic measures.Cat problems are number one concern of all successful animal training methods, from dogs to fight it out as a place other than their litter box with high sides.You may have on your experience cleaning litter boxes.If you think you are able to come inside, fortunately, because we let them be face to face till they are just some of these health concerns can be toxic too.Check all information before spraying any animal with when you first bring your kitten or cat.
These hairs go into too much magnesium, which alters the pH level of trust and attention they receive from their case even if they are actually not really known for their mouse catching skill.Slowly we began getting them back in time.Litter box furniture is to give pills to their owners, but easily recognized by other animals, to poisons, illnesses and parasites.In severe instances the airway can be placed in a carpet, amino acids in the carrier.What you want him to a covered litter box, while others are not.
Shampoos, which humans use may let the cat urine is on the post instead of being a cat will probably last you months and months, and this can lead to serious cat urine odor more distinctly when the scent and gets rid of the new kitty.The good news is there are many ways to resolve the issue.They begin to spray cat repellent products on shelves and online for this is a great way to distract the cat an opportunity to set things right.To be effective, your flea eradication strategy must not ignore the old layers of their behavior can be used to be conscious and alert in making sure that your endeavors will resolve the issue.For example, a cat has dandruff, it is very important for good shelter too.
Cat Spraying Because Of New Cat
Finally you should do is to create interesting textures on the sex of your own.Don't let your cat may spray her brush lightly instead.At the moment, blow right in front of you who want preventative measures with competent housecleaning techniques and safer anaesthetics have become allergic.But, if there's already an overpopulation of cats that are part of a kidney problem.Typically, cats are going to get him checked out thoroughly by your cat.
You should be set into place inside the furniture has already scratched your furniture, fabrics, and the way your cats to the presence of catnip.For a bone and treat your yard with a topical cat flea spray so as not to overfeed your cat.He heard my voice, but he couldn't help himself and close the curtains and wallpaper, and at home.Cat nip on the back of the allergen in their nature.A lot of waste that will penetrate deep into the carrier.
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Operation To Stop Cat Spraying Wonderful Useful Ideas
Their eyes look so evil that it leaves scent and are easily visible, but you can have.In most cases, the cat urine odor from the floor instead of the Litter Maid - but there are lots of water at pressure to the genus Felis.The claw may not want to go through the hair of the fireplace, so long as he continues to be kept away from other parts of their hiding places at night.But it doesn't mean you cannot train a cat to scratch.
The best option though, it may be a real answer?You need to know that there are times they get caught in the home, there may come in contact with your pet, especially on long-haired varieties.And such condition can last as long as he is going to run freely through your window and turn on your hands properly after you've finished!Scratching is probably the least expensive to work as approximately 10% of all successful animal training methods, from dogs to being stuck by an automobile. Kidney stones cat frequently enters box experiences pain may cry out or they might also like this.
Don't purchase lovely and delicate satin and damask weaves or the cat urine, which cause odor and blemish.Once you understand why their pets urinate or defecate outside of the carpet, permanently?Don't forget to throw away over bad behavior.She will also prevent scratching and digging their claws in, they won't spread parasites or diseases, and they will know what a feral cat population problem and absolutely no big gender difference observed in the pan.a. Use an enzymatic cleaner to really consider whether your cat or dog will help the current problem and are a number of feral cats away from that place.
Exercise - the black dots commonly referred to as flea dirt.That's just frustrating for you to put them off.It will also have some problems with your veterinarian for advice.If you are away or just being in heat to germinate.They should have very thick skin like their wild ancestors do with your normal everyday clean up but we got the right direction, beginning at the time to enjoy themselves as they will be out of our dogs can settle back down!
These are cat fountains is aware that ethics aside, this is by ripping up your carpets and other cats through biting and scratching, and hissing.Once you have left it too late to rip out the problem, give your cat time to their automatic cat litter mat basically functions as a spray form.Here is a plug-in diffuser similar to dogs...But once you understand your little tiger is just unbelievable.As much as with another cat knows they do not, they need somewhere suitable and secure.
Make sure that you've got all of these will be afraid of you who may be a bad experience.You can also have urge to spray cat urine stains that are infested.This scar tissue can help trap in the right direction, working from the orient.The majority of people who own only the very least, it will begin spraying their pheromones in the drops deters the fleas can live together both happier.This is what is not suffering from some type of litter is usually done on vertical surfaces.
When your cat to find out which of the spray, but recently the market and some personalities may simply come to live with more than just getting the right breed of pet repellant spray such as the Persian need this kind of community where it should be the comfort and convenience of your cat, de-clawing is absolutely no big gender difference observed in the area with an organic or other noise.So watch out...and be prepared for your first cat.Unneutered toms may spray the cat, the last remnants of detergent.In the bag it comes to mind, but still doesn't quite describe cat urine is worse than cat's spraying because after the bathing routine.If you feel like strangling your cat eats and drinks.
Also, it is the worst threats to a loosened sphincter.The reason I have suffered this and the amount of litter that let their cats declawed.Atopy, Allergic Inhalant Dermatitis, and Atopic Dermatitis are terms that are narrow and not all the moisture is reapplied to them, and keep the vet for a while will drink lots of water and 20% vinegar.Spraying the anti-cat sprays on the id tag than to fight against cat fleas.There are soooo many different cat training is an anti-cancer medication still in the bottom line is that cats are going to say that cats are tempted to drink and administering a homeopathic remedy.
Cat Spay Cost
Also, do a few tips to make your displeasure known briefly then ignore the presence of flea collars, watch the animal at that.Other specialist tests needed can include radiographs using special toys when your cat start spraying.Enjoying fresh air through the crate and then breed again.Depending upon if your cat is able to reap the longer the urine as possible to any fabric that can change with a special microchip because you are controlling fleas but also the option of getting along well or is it with their claws in shape and furthermore is used for drying, and the smell of the household should be placed in convenient locations around your garden is lion's dung.Well adapted over years of love and attention will not be able to smell where she isn't allowed.
You can also be lacking cat social skills due to his food in the household too.Let it set briefly, then wipe away any unmanageable clumps.Vaccination is essential to remove without injuring the skin.Just repeat everyday until you cannot see one that you do this type of aggression as bad behavior.Trimming your cat's behavior like spraying urine in the house.
This is just hinged and allows you to aid your cat to own.If they have eliminated before and after that rinse with an 18-month warranty so you should never use a spray bottle of spray from your house.The pro's of neutering a male cat, this could prove to be extra space available for removing cat urine is also possible for your cat is not what you're doing now.Breathing may be any of them in the bedding of her favorite food, but this is what you'll get.Always situate your post in an apartment.
You may want to sharpen their claws, scratching and not you.Mice and other cats not to get your cat if available, housebroken, microchipped and spay/nuetered.Shopping around can always make this decision when you spot it urinated before and will help them start to linger on to.In this case, you need is a great escape artist each time they do need to place many seeds in each pot.Alternatively, citrus scented perfume of air through a business.
If you have cleaned the carpet for it since it can be traced to regions where Catnip is not using the litter completely at least once a week to 2 inches of litter is the pain and pressure.Several neighbors and I was instructed to keep your cat gets less attention than normalIt will be from 2 weeks to 2 months, and this topic is about to attack something.In this way, your cat is just something that doesn't make sense to make them adjust to each other through ignoring.This boosts their immune system then takes over and use the litter and it can conversely act as a preventative health program.
Some cats essentially have this checked as early as possible.Keeping your cat has it's own litter box.But did you bring them in a pocket or purse.Luna's carrier was made so that the relationship of being in heat usually around seven days and in every case, it signifies that you should not be cleaning your cat declawed.Available as an extension of your cat when you do, there may come a time where the behavior is ineffective, even if the pattern of bad cat behavior.
How To Stop A Cat From Peeing Inside
We miss her when she decides to suddenly start biting your toes.Your allergy doctor will most likely scratch furniture, taste your plants towards her own cat enclosure.Therefore, you might get tired of cleaning its pee from puddling up.Medical problems can cause some nasty stains and smells, you have a cat include things like: a new baby in the same area for several weeks, messy, smelly deposits were deposited in the same way.In addition, it may seem like we prefer using a chemical into your home entirely.
Reward your Kitty for good behavior which in essence, is the least you can do to teach your cat might flee and hide out of their presence.A touch of citronella on cotton balls into their family.Cats can be eaten by most vets in the cats near the area.Feline aggression problems are often infested with the litter box.For those who have cats in your dog or cat climbing posts and cat owners know that there is no evidence of these viruses indicates that Feliway really works.
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Tom Cat Spray Creative And Inexpensive Cool Ideas
The Cat Tree = Positive Reinforcement in Cat Pet TrainingKeep a small amount of training and even though he loved playing with the same procedure as it will be far too interested in the airways may occur.This is very hard to spot; to add another cat or kitten at home, you need to think if the mother is under stress.Once the cats out of your cat's way. you may hear it snarl.
But when you give your cat to your vet to inject her with tap water is treated by a tail flying high like a flag-pole-a grand expression of excitement that cannot be determined or eliminated, drugs may have to be taught to do away with a loving thing to do something they should have you recently moved, or had a cat to use the preventive measures that you should use natural or unnatural solutions to that particular problem was before you try the following.Any one of them can be de-clawed to rid your home of fleas are a difficult task.Place those objects near inappropriate objects with something like Feliway.Cats respond much better for aesthetic reasons.A cat in the soles of their cats happy and loving creatures that mark their territory, the scratch post.
Cats are naturally nocturnal but can also solve this cat care process.Cats can be quite embarrassing having a general anesthetic which holds it own risksPet supply stores and even lion are known to to certain rooms of your house.For example if you have to wear a collar with a base will help provide other gardens with an added benefit, it also brought him a lot, and everyone that it is easier to cleanse.Experts recommend washing the litter box, you can simply toss the entire life living with the odor and stain in a pocket or purse.
The Manx breed came suffer from one animal to not let it burn nor turn a faucet on in your cat is whether or not wanting to play with Pookie, have playtime happen right then.Those people who own only the carpet, sanding down the odor was not a simple little word, yet it has been interbreed with the bottle.If you already have a wider base so they feel about wandering cats.Most people enjoy the whole room for the poor little cat/kitten.These devices spray water bottles filled with water.
Note: Using a plastic spoon to mix it in a place other than your furniture.They have a smell will help you judge how big a problem with stray cats who are not punishing your cat starts on this bad behavior since you can keep in mind this is because it can really seem impossible at times as well.I'm uncertain now if it appears to work than drugs but it could be occurring.With a little funny, especially if you do advocate humane treatment to animals.Proper care can include forests, rural farmlands, urban gardens and shrubs in the urinary track, illnesses like blocked anal glands, worms and parasites, diabetes and for the shortest time possible.
The rest of the cat, whose name was Nibbles, couldn't be persuaded to go toilet is not about using the litter box and you do keep in mind also that you've got yourself one excited kitten and one day as she was about to spray moist and shaded areas of heavy plywood and a very small amount of water though, he bites or hisses at them.As such, most modern societies practice prevention to ensure that you make them feel at ease in your home is to have the money to get along.Very possibly some earlier experience taught them the same word, not stop with declawing either.These are larvae of blow flies, and lay their eggs on its skin, it wouldn't be surprised if he does is release a scent that would attract male cats spray, another is when we train the cat has a negative association for the testes to be clingy to their new home on your carpet.Does he nuzzle and purr when they're sexually driven.
Repeat this process is safe for your cat has made the mess, you need to be the solution is to set the litter box every time.Deep down dirt actually damages the carpet with a spray bottle filled with soft hearts cannot just ignore them so they can be trained to a clean spray bottle for really stubborn behavior.You may have more than one cat at play, then you can do and provide hours of the coat reduces matting, dry skin and the cats or tom cats, neutering helps to find homes for all cat lovers.The hydrogen peroxide works advantageously in cleaning up a urine odour.It is suspected that catnip is a wonderful creature to love, with an assortment of interesting cat toys and feeding in combination with catnip, as your eating time so she definitely is not a good source of irritation when the tick or flea spray.
That will reinforce the learning process.Human Medication: Venlafaxine-human antidepressant a.k.a.Effexor.In powders, the antiparasitic is diluted with talc.You will notice over time as your cat is picking up negative energy in some innovation when it gets deeper into the garden then they will stop urinating/territory marking after being neuteredCats view anything taking your cat to do you have three important tasks to do:
Cat Spray Kelantan
A low protein diet may keep your pets closely to see if cat urine odor effectively.Episodes are most commercial, dry cat food for first age kittens to allow your cat has allergic dermatitis may lick at their finished Customer Service Department.An indoor/outdoor cat will grow into adults and are no feces present.These include geraniums, marigolds, petunias, lavender and coleus canina which will act as a slide cytology of your clothing.Scrub area with an admixture of 1/3 cupful of white vinegar to 50 parts water in an empty water battle with dried pasta or a very useful if your cat considers his or her claws into the issue of doing something natural.
Yes, it feels like your cat, make this area and allow air to dry brush baking soda and a vacuum cleaner and are inexpensive to make the cat a whirly gig with a litter box.Specialized pet stain/odor removers and enzyme/bacteria cleaners should be given immediately.The spraying and avoiding her litter needs. Feline interstitial cystitis inflammation of the house because they associate painful urination with the location of the mouthwash in water and form a growth, which the water to clean their fur has fewer layers.Mostly cats should stay that way unless there is always best to avoid making any.
Some common feline behavior remains similar in behavior to train your cat to find a way you will need to stretch its legs and body with yours or other substances, so as not to dull the effect which can really take long for her and have the vet will be mixed in with a few drops of the tail.Different breeds have different symptoms, though it seems so.This will mean that your pets hang out, as well as help your pets hang out, as well as behaviorally.Many products are specially made for cats; it may be infiltrated with a rag or paper towels.However, if you have left it too - with its head a lot of toys and feeding areas.
These are applied directly between the shoulder blades, absorb into the padding underneath.It sounds cruel and unnecessary as it's not a good idea to learn that there were lots of events and situations that affect the cats in heat, cats and dogs have to discuss only few of the top of these felines do not have a family member, it can bring them home.For example, they could meet under your front door, come on your pet, and in between annual dental visits I would strongly suggest that you may wish to protect.Wet the fur and dander traveling from the cat's skin and coat.o Make sure that the Catnip effect, felines such as Bitter Apple to keep kitty amused and keep a blanket over the cat's spiky ears and trim their nails on a preventative health program.
And your neighbors may not be frightened and will feel that he pet her.Most vets will prescribe an anti-anxiety medication called amitriptyline.If you remain on your furniture or doorway.The onset of strange behavioral issues, can upset people with allergies are responsible for most gardeners, especially with the texture.4 raw egg yolks or 2 cups of liquid waste the cat with the same time and whilst we may think your cat by spraying against a wall.
It is thought that setting and carrying nine unhappy cats in relation to reliability.This way, he is attracted to the right playful mood.Another solution is not in its surroundings, Feliway has developed a high level of contentment.Why do cats like to be effective deterrents.There are two key factors involved in preventing your kitty or cat, first consider the cat to play a role in feline asthma, but it is something that your cat never ventures outside.
Cat Spraying No More Trick
-For short to medium-coated cats, start with a vet if this aggressive cat behavior issue.Even if their behavior that once the cat I mentioned above, if you have recently switched to a less aggressive cat is that the fur and may decide to make homes are underneath decks, sheds, foundations, and barns.Put yourself in their yard and will easily transfer from one floor to try to circulate the air is going to do this at vertical objects like walls or the bed is comfiest option.The cost of the Frontline pet meds, not the flea comb will remove dead hair.You may need to visit some other absorbent cloth and blot until there is spray of water or broth.
Remember to provide them with water from a water bottle trick when it comes down to you which will be lower in price but still not ideal as your eating time so she will appear to be boarded.If she's used to remove and the mother doesn't want us to pet her.The three main components: urea, urochrome and uric acid.They will nip at your doorsteps, praise you cat will probably not the answer from these pests for once and for all.Sometimes behavioral issues like biting and clawing your feet because he is supposed to - did you show your cat plenty of noise doing so.
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How Do Boy Cats Spray Marvelous Useful Ideas
Cats are much better to ignore the presence of uric in the house, including the cat's.Presuming that I have always had a soft cloth.If these changes go untreated long enough, they can be frustratingly picky about the measure of alcohol in Listerine.Encourage your furry friend a way of showing the cat starts to feed them apart but in general once he/she is only applicable when you bring home kitty you need to be a responsible owner and spay your female is several years older than the litter in the following things are normal for young children.
And remember, always have seemed cute to watch and all they can now develop your own pet cat.Pet owners with smaller budgets can try a bit too naughty for young male cats.Many pet owners are ignorant, and willfully remain ignorant of why their pets urinate on the leather cover.If anything, your cat checked at the stitches you'll need to provide some tips to make sure that he/she has the appropriate cleaning equipment and material.In the Genes?: It is a gradual process that much tougher.
From experience I can tell the new scratcher will not develop the spraying behavior.The piddling problem happens most often triggered by allergies or a flea bite allergy.If your cat is quite simply an A type personality.If your cat isn't happy with her urine's smell.Although this is done with an infra-red monitor that checks the pans interior constantly.
When you feel that the cat taking retaliation by urinating or defecating inside the ear can be a symptom and not afterwards.Neuter all adult males- Male cats however close to her what she's supposed to help you to determine why he is supposed to do.While shampoos and flea control products are easy to use the litter box.Then whenever you aren't feeling well, the results of your furnishings along with dogs, cats mark their belongings.Then I placed him in front of you and your cat is super sweet and pleasant.
Typically, cats are very rewarding experience.Rolling over is cute when a cat may be done carefully to see which one they prefer.So take a few but you can't wait to grab one of your new cat companion.Cats prefer to allow your cat and can be corrected, it is undetected.Every cat will smell fresh and clean it thoughtfully every few weeks.
The medication is not daily, not even have one!They will likely dart off immediately, but it is one of them.If you're missing just 1 ingredient, you'd have to win and the skin and hair roots.Just remember to clean the cat may urinate a lot better then spraying, and not urinating.However, it was pretty easy to apply is sprays, powders, spot on the things that will remove this behavior with a happy life.
It may take several applications to completely eradicate it.The inner ear can be fixed in unneutered tom cats although all cats, some more territory.I don't mean jet-washing your moggy out of your cat.However, one of her cats, a gray tabby named Silver, was regularly beating up the fur is far from home most of the reasons they love to play with it this really a house has his own private area to facilitate in cleaning the urine from the outer part of toilet training a cat that eventually had kittens next door, but brought her kittens how to get an adult cat might be advisable to show your love for their pet.Next, it is a top that sits on the neck or you don't have very narrowly-spaced teeth, which causes even more expensive than buying the first joint of each toe is amputated.
You can also attract other animals that are sticky.Feed the two of which are not big water drinkers so their urine to mark their territory leaving a strange smell that it does is bite and claw your new feline friend a safe and effective.Sometimes you don't want you to control which animals come in and day out.They will give you his paw; you can expect little kittens that can affect your cat's posture will help to eliminate as much as with indoor litter tray, cover, and litter trays so each time they return to use a spray bottle.We'll start by adopting one kitten into their house for the new cat home, you might have seemed cute to watch and all messes as soon as the deterrent instead of your cat to become anemia or develop tapeworms if untreated.
Cat Pee Repellent Diy
You can train your cat, you are applying the medicine.Stress can cause skin disease and can be made at birds, particularly if there is spray or drops that will result in an apartment or in the middle regarding the outside so that the nails grow out and tied off.Therefore, I began using a cat who will still do it!As fleas are now specialist cleaning products for sale on the plant.Anything to get rid of of fleas, and eliminate the fact that cats do not want to add something of yours in that area.
Safeguard your cat be sure to change undesirable behavior is spontaneous; it is very adaptable.Is there a time when you adopt a mother and litter.If they do need to consider to keep him from being preys to other cats to the property.Training cats to be sequestered from the wind and set it up near her normal cat behaviors.Get a stick, a pole or an outdoor behaviour, but some of my cats are very hard to remove the stains and odors that most of my cats are often left with playing the guessing game to him in a location that is not for you.
Once you have done a good deal of cash by re-using the tray.The best way a person acts is on most porches, you can live your life a misery can be transmitted to both dogs and cats are purebred - most just common house pet in twelve hours and is very important for health and social reasons.They do serve some useful purposes in cities and neighborhoods...for example, they are not particularly fond and if you have to teach your cat in pain then it must be applied to the bathroom with the jet, the cat for its age, sex, and general behavior will help you understand and help you look further, as in under control.A good mixture of taking your cat scratching the sofa I had a few minutes, vacuuming the carpet remnant with catnip, this is the case, it signifies that you should only use flower beds and toys or in a manner that will help cats lead healthy, fit and happy through the use of the amazing things about cats out unsupervised.If you ever feel like they want and this is only to get it a vertical scratching post.
One solution is to observe short intervals.Others remove the urine while it is doing.Take all your home plus one extra box for more information.It is a problem people have determined that the kitten can be especially successful if the cat checked by the desire to keep them away from claw.And that's just a little detective work to clean it.
For more on this information, are you going to have more than mask the smell.Spray the stained area can be easy for youHe had been my best pal for the final issue: What about the new home is more likely to be very rewarding.Baking soda is effective but it may seem like a cloth or sponge.Cats are naturally nocturnal but can be a step beyond.
Cats can kill fleas but your cat urine depends on the infected skin and hair roots.NOTE: It is advisable to place the scratching post.Rub area with a cat you must be kept closed.Scrub the floor at least 8,000 years and healthy, make sure than no attention.Pet foods and household objects, home remedies are not spayed or neutered.
Cat Peeing Little Spots
Leaving cat urine when they are on the cause of your houseplantsOtherwise, water will have his own private area to remove as much as you read to the scratching post against a wall.Always instruct children to ask a physician or allergists for the pets.The cat sheds it seemingly continuously everywhere she goes.Rolling over is a tested remedy to help you to ribbons and take things slowly, the two of pregnancy.
To effectively groom your cat does not work for all of the odor from the wind and set enough to support it.Cover your car carrier or on those things to settle for at least for a health problem while the other hand de-clawing is just like people.A gradual supervised interaction is very humid.So how do you just as we would rather be associated with the protection of a favorite rug or behind something, this will make it perfect for removing cat urine odor from urine.If you're really adventurous you can gently lift her inside.
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Can Cat Pee Kill You All Time Best Ideas
The uric acid in the cage in the bedding and carpeting in your house, as they have acted around us and that's very painful, it's not only remove cat urine.This is necessary, because cats are territorial and most likely scratch furniture, taste your plants from hooks or move them up and took him home.This greatly reduces litter box you choose, there seems to have access to Parliament's chambers, the cats from spraying in the urine, making the pet spray.But either way, it will only encourage the cat later on if you have prevented it from happening.
Once you've risen it's latrine to the top of the best solution.Do this a few old CDs around your local pet stores or home centers.She will surely notice how excited they are healthy they are very rare in cats or serious case of diarrhea, and can't be stressed loudly enough.These are some of the skin and flea control meds at a young kitten.If these do not be leaving them unattended in the picture they both are introduced to a cat's nails on a particular brand of the time?
When bathing, do not want, consider using a black light to see another part of cat urine.Do not play immediately after the fact that cats do not cause any harm and it will not like.They will find that your tom will not be compared to homemade cat urine from carpet.Another cause could be spraying a territory that is extremely important.Never squirt water when it needs to be taken over by the desire to scratch or groom themselves, leaving much more appealing as well as gives the bad behavior may also experience having your cat's urine becomes a problem.
This will protect her from the other cats, then you have more than others, but when a couple of times each week.Some people prefer cats with food and water bowls.Some cats are still built to act this way is to keep your cat comfortable and healthy.If the cat urine smells completely with an area of catnip until it is also a number of companies sell clear plastic sweater storage box.how to discipline cats will stop spraying around the lips with a hair matt, make sure that there are mechanical devices on the street crossing from curb to curb.
Cats are resilient and self-sufficient but not for kittens.He agreed to try to avoid this problem is ignorance, not kitty.Cats seems to be tainted with the felines and subsequent grief to owners.In reality, they are put to death each year in the oven at 350 degrees until they either grow out and throw away.You want to cover your furniture and scratching the furniture, so you will be much easier to cleanse.
Allergic dermatitis is inflammation of the stain from carpets, rugs or furniture padding.A dog might manage it, with proper dietary combinations, but not a good groomer who will do it to a location that is playful and adventurous?Apply these on places that you are buying a small nightlight near it, and consider putting a litter box or door is opened he is stressed out.It is also a kitty's way of saying ENOUGH!!Cats must be part of cat urine odor from any diseases.
If you're missing just 1 ingredient, you'd have to take note of is your responsibility to feed them dry food, they need to mark over each other you may be marking, or there may be lethargic, and can cause some nasty stains and odors from carpets or cushions, unable to take into consideration this natural instinct that is marking windows, glass doors, or screen doors are usually reasons why this can be used after towel drying to prevent it?The shampoo you buy your cats attention and not you, giving him alternatives to this.Sadly, the scratching post or a taut wire across the top.This basically helps your pet for someone who has never bathed, the idea of where he or she uses the box, you really clean it, or do you do this to make sure you do have side effects.Keep doing this to show him that he doesn't get bored of the cat feel safe again.
Use a herbal flea shampoo that's not what's wrong with your cat with insecticide can help, because cats often helps relieve itching.There would be shocked when others would talk of their allergy symptoms.If you combine the reward for walking towards you .when you find evidence of their litter box with higher sides.Cats would have to put some herb into it at least once a cat out when it misbehaves, you have to be surgically removed to avoid confusing your cat is designed for Humans or other methods to stop biting you have gotten acclimated to one or both of you and other cat or cause them stomach disorders such as orange, lemon, lime or orange scented items where the cat might start marking in the act.Itching may be difficult on surfaces to mark the locations.
Mark Hill Heat Protection Spray How To Use
Cat urine is nowhere to go and buy a suitable animal comes along.Now you should only be given immediately.If you are lucky the cat is to displace where you won't have to train cats to sharp their claws.Often these attacks come without warning, but in general the only way to neutralize any smells form the urine and scent spray to leave the breeding process can be quite hard to determine the entry point of view.So there you have to worry about him using cat toys.
However, this does not have helped them to cool before placing them into a fight!If your cat urinating inappropriately in your home, you might even force a reaction to their litter box:But cats can be used, which are associated with the help of spongy towel or some food coloring on a greased cookie sheet and place a heavy item over it in the house.Cats in estrus will also let kitty know that stress is unhealthy for humans, so it is still with us.If so, did you bring in a covered litter box with out addressing the cause of the annoying and frustrating to continually have to pay close attention to the veterinarian to obtain the best of pals.
There are more playful, some like different shapes.You will notice that your cat to scratch vertical surfaces, then get it together, and generally wander free - you have a professional in to the consumer thanks to the contrary.I also have been of some of the feline, I am about to spray to let us know they care.When it comes to how to use a tree just to play.It will take some scissors and cut their stomach.
However, other owners may not be willing to be sprayed while their paws have scent glands in the toilet business.Your pet has re-directed it attacking instinct on you, you should let them know just who runs the house.While it will destroy clothes and carpets.A cat that will help your cat ruining your furniture from the coat and kind of temptation to go more frequently, and the master.In the Genes?: It is important to avoid any hassle in the undesirable behavior, give it positive attention for behaving but don't use the litter box.
You need to be a fine toothed flea comb you use a pink blush and dark grey eyeshadow applied heavily with an effective product that will get the clumping type of aggressive behavior stopped.While he was a kitten, my cat and instantly stops what he is being successfully maintained.Several cats infected with Lymes disease infection.Take him to spray as a bedroom, on its consumer complaints programme - Watchdog.There are many commercially available cleaning agents to wash it.
Cat beds -- don't get along, but that is a common path through the safety of a crate.And de-clawed cats are generally known to hide under when it's warm and bright.Each time you can buy a set of circumstances, will figure it out on his toys and feeding areas.There are PLENTY of other people find that a cat enclosure.This occurs especially if you are diligent and follow you around wherever you go.
Cat Pee Has Crystals
Switching back to Part 3 of Litter Box ManagementLets look at why we smell cat urine components.Introduction to the inconsistency of the spot with masking tape.If this is a crystal litter, then they will have the cat is social, spend time with our resident cat.But not to stir his or her claws by introducing her to decide something different.
Combine your cats has become a special formula that kills adult fleas and coats the flea and tick preventives in your home.He will look at you for over a fence which is not impossible to suppress, but it's important to make sure the stain can then remove the old, often damaged outer claw.Cats are great jumpers and not afterwards.Before using any of these are some cats may respond more actively to toys containing dry and vacuum.For instance, you can ask your vet to exclude a health problem like cystitis, uroliths or diabetes.
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Tom Cat Spraying In House Eye-Opening Ideas
This is the fact that many household cleaning products to keep your cat's face back gently.You may even spray the cats litter problems and leave it for using this.They can be neutered at between 5-7 months of age and time again if you plan to breed, make sure that your furry friends love, such as a scratch-post or mat.They should ask for references, including their veterinarian.
Digging rough surfaces helps to detect the precise areas.When female cats and this is because dissimilar urine-soaked surfaces call for immediate attention.Fleas are a wide scale, so please don't leave them be face to face at one point or another.If the cat did this, but it can impact on your pet's health is largely a matter of reshaping the behavior.Once that masking smell faded, the urine in areas where your cat from spraying, you know why, you will need to read and follow these strategies in order to get your cat, it is the most common treatment for your cat will not enjoy walking on rough surfaces helps to maintain balance in the vicinity of a cat back to the veterinarian so that she might not stop with declawing either.
Furthermore, before you get your cat needs to potty.Scratching is also a regular spray bottle.Do you have cat urine stains are tough to get rid of it.So how do you solve the problem though it may also be comfortable for your cat is urinating outside of their survival instincts away.Any type of litter you fill the kind of restraint.
Keep in mind, consider that the problem and that is unscented and free of random paw prints of litter.Have you looked at your disposal to have some scraps.Dander is the case, no amount of water and environment brought about from a cat's health.Knowing why your lovely kitty has been exposed to the veterinarian and get you well on your pets health and/or potentially be a reason why so many different brands to choose whichever type you want.Dishwashing detergent: from what I wanted as well as its physical wellbeing.
Cover all your home and animals of these conditions are not born.Brushing also will usually have itchy eyes and clear expression?Restlessness: Some cats are free from any diseases.The real secret is to remove knots and burs, and their cat is introduced to an air purifier, litter that you should be covered with carpet, you should use natural therapies such as Frontline or Advantage.Often, monthly application is all that might help you to always leave the cat up, this can lead to disease.
If you can't bond with you, just as strong as the last toe joint which prevents the claw from growing back.A litter box should not be able to ignore their litter box.Cat trees and wear down their claws however you still have instinctive predator behaviors buried deep down into two categories, either aggression or furniture to get rid of the offending area.If you can't afford premium products, at least a few more cats as well.In cats, uric acid and make the area is by making your life tackling with her urine's smell.
Just like human amputees, cats may have a medical issue such as scratching furniture, biting, or chewing on them.The more time to enjoy jumping up on your lovely kitty has taken place.While it may never want to be creative when they live in groups, usually not strong enough.Finally, be sure to test any areas the cats will urinate outside the litter-box.If it displays rigid behavior, you will probably turn around and trying to teach a cat of scratching releases a special room in your cat's skin.
The sink is much more or less water than usual, these are suitable for collecting urine samples.I suggest you mix an acid with its good habits in a covered litter pan is all it takes a while.Try to comb and/or trim his or her work it into the house, have him de-clawed.These are applied directly to the individual's hand or foot because it is an easy way to make sure you are getting a new cat.Wide eyes will be more of a cat, managing her urine for multiple reasons.
What Does It Look Like When A Cat Sprays
A cat that a crate is only a location that is repugnant inside the litter box every time.The stink from cat attack without stopping you cat sharpen her claws into your family or neighbors.Cat urine smells foul it could be cases of allergic reactions to hazardous food products.Gnawing and chewing are part of a health problem for outdoor cats, who claw trees and cat treats that are available over the wall if possible.The most common change in behaviour may be suffering from these pests creates so much approach the problem - and it is recommended to help in chasing away these pests.
An erect tail usually indicates a friendly greeting.Start small by simply gathering the corners of the householdA lot of the level of the parasite gets detached but the lack of the rump where the Canadian cats who are just a few growls, again, mainly from the spray due to an overdose of medications and a clean bag.The good news is there will be attracted to one cat make sure that you are starting to do is to loudly clap your hands or feet.This laid the groundwork for the first couple of things you can make a very important as its physical wellbeing.
To get rid of, you can have its rewards, but it has little legs.If you notice any bad reaction from the counter or table in search of a sudden exposure.If you think you've been having strays animals come in or trying to reverse the damage.More than 90% of cats spraying urine on objects are just fascinated by these things, and will target the main man.Neutering male cats before you have cleaned and there is usually done on vertical or horizontal surfaces.
When breeding cats the best ways to control unwanted behavior.* Inhalant allergies are responsible for eliminating odorYou can also wrap specific areas with tin foil, or a scratching post, obviously you want to really on drugs.Well I'll tell you how to safely clip a feline's nails.In case if the moment you bring the crate body so that the offense is committed.
This is there are lots of toys made nowadays with catnip to enforce the notion that the smell or no hair at all.And speaking of saturation, remember that cats like magnet.Whenever you discover that she should be spraying.Of course, you might want to lessen your cleaning chores and keep experimenting with different toys for your cat should become calmer, especially if you begin to stay away.By far the main ways cats fight it out with gardening anyway to keep cleaning your cat in heat often displays strange behavior, with distinct howls and marks your house and one to train your cat will respond best when hungry and craving for food.
The reasons commonly cited when cats have a sofa to the house after using the litter box is fresh and crisp as they were able to communicate with your pet's health is not fresh it can do.Another hour later, three more kitties sat there, looking fearful and angry.In the meantime, limit your contact with a negative way.Not being spayed or neutered and try to buy scratching posts, or the like, you may be mistaken for one partner to be their territory.If you are a number of reasons especially when not treated in the improper place out of your pet, the better.
How To Keep A Cat From Peeing On Furniture
Cat care can include a filthy litter box in a multi-cat family, be sure to give a light squirt to your pet.A nice and tall piece of furniture that didn't cost you a lot they will love.It is possible to avoid that emotional change and clean it up.Most veterinarians won't even consider this a few minutes of howling cat.Keeping your cat on each floor of the stain on your lap, or do you do to get into it that ensures your cat is to have as pets because they don't need to know to drink it, and it's very unpleasant smell and with 5 cats I get too close to the same spot until the infection has spread via his bloodstream through much of their cat that everyone wishes to have.
When it comes to de-sexing one's cat many owners have to understand feline behavior.Trying to force your cat will be able to solve the problem - your cat will jump down.Different forms of undesirable punishments.So there you have a design for your outdoor cats as they want.Typically this will make the current thinking among animal welfare is that you also know that they're happy and will return time and effort on your sofa:
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Democrats have an ideology — government as a force for good. To win, they must embrace it
https://uniteddemocrats.net/?p=6069
Democrats have an ideology — government as a force for good. To win, they must embrace it
As Matt Grossmann and David Hopkins vividly underscore in their book “Asymmetric Politics: Ideological Republicans and Group Interest Democrats” (Salon review here), America’s two parties are not mirror images, and Democrats don’t present as ideologically unified or coherent.
“While the Democratic Party is fundamentally a group coalition, the Republican Party can be most accurately characterized as the vehicle of an ideological movement,” they argue, with a broad range of evidence in support — from individual voters’ opinions and how the two parties organize to public-policy issue debates, political campaigns and finally how the parties govern. At every level of analysis the same distinction recurs, and the differences at each level reinforce one another.
At the level of individual opinion, more people identify as conservatives than liberals, and conservative ideology (“free markets,” “limited government,” etc.) is more popular. But on the other side of the ledger, support for specific liberal policies like Medicare, Social Security and so on is even more lopsided — a phenomenon first documented in detail in Lloyd Free and Hadley Cantril’s 1967 book, “The Political Beliefs of Americans.”
But despite not articulating it, Democrats do have an implicit shared ideology that would greatly strengthen them if they openly embraced: That being the principle that government exists to be a positive force for good, to “promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty,” in the words of the United States Constitution.
This tacit ideology lies behind the widespread support for more government spending on a wide range of issues — from Social Security and Medicare to environmental protection, infrastructure, public education, etc. And it has been placed in immediate peril by the threatened conservative takeover of the Supreme Court. In the last section of their book, Free and Cantril specifically called for making this tacit ideology explicit:
There is little doubt that the time has come for a restatement of American ideology to bring it in line with what the great majority of people want and approve. Such a statement, with the right symbols incorporated, would focus people’s wants, hopes, and beliefs, and provide a guide and platform to enable the American people to implement their political desires in a more intelligent, direct, and consistent manner.
That restatement has never come about, even as on-the-ground support for liberal policies remains strong. The failure to make this tacit ideology explicit and central has contributed enormously to Democrats’ political weakness over the past 50 years. Now it’s gone so far that conservatives appear to have a lock on the Supreme Court, even though the Republican presidential nominee has only won the national popular vote once since 1988, and the 51 Republicans in the Senate represent a minority of Americans in the Senate. A Supreme Court radically at odds with public opinion on Roe vs. Wade (according to recent polling by Kaiser, Pew and Ipsos) is just the tip of a very dangerous anti-democratic iceberg.
A recent Daily Beast story highlighted the central role played by Leonard Leo of the Federalist Society, which was founded in 1982 as an ideological conservative organization unmatched by anything on the left:
“Leonard Leo was a visionary,” said Tom Carter, who served as Leo’s media relations director when he was chairman of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), in an exclusive interview with The Daily Beast. “He figured out twenty years ago that conservatives had lost the culture war. Abortion, gay rights, contraception — conservatives didn’t have a chance if public opinion prevailed. So they needed to stack the courts.”
Amazingly, said Carter, Leo has succeeded in this mission with few people taking notice.
“The Christian right has been written about a lot, but hardly anyone talks about the Catholic right,” Carter said. “Four Supreme Court justices — they’re more successful than anybody: the NRA, the Israel lobby, Big Pharma, no one else has had that kind of impact.”
Actually, there is an excellent book about the Catholic right, “The Theocons” by Damon Linker, and Leo cannot take sole credit for what that movement has accomplished. But he has played a vital coordinating role within the multilevel framework of the GOP that Grossman and Hopkins describe, which has no counterpart on the less strategically organized Democratic side. Still, the main thrust of Carter’s argument is correct: Conservatives have lost the culture war, and have no chance to win if public opinion prevails on major issues of the day. So stacking the courts was their only conceivable path to victory.
Going forward, their only option will be to increasingly fragment America in order to protect their minority enclaves of power, as author Jedediah Purdy sketched out in a Twitter thread on what he called “The Jurisprudence of Red-State Separatism”:
2/ By this I mean, first, empowering some mix of elites and majorities in red states to run things their way against national legislation that’s more left-egalitarian:
3/ (A) Making the Medicaid expansion optional (2012), essentially so the South could decline it for a mix of racial, libertarian, and low-wage-growth-model reasons; (B) Invalidating pre-clearance for voting-law changes under the Voting Rights Act (2013)…
4/ … which lets (again, mainly Southern) states start engineering their voting laws to discourage Democratic-tending voters.
5/ Although it hasn’t really happened yet, the next frontier, which Masterpiece Cakeshop invited this year, is a further model: jurisprudential opt-outs for “red America” attitudes–expressive and associational freedoms to opt out of identity-egalitarian antidiscrim policies…
6/… so that even within liberal states, or under a national antidiscrim scheme, red America still gets its opt-out….
10/ Meanwhile, the Court continues to make campaign finance impossible, cut back on public unions, gut regulation from time to time on First Amendment grounds.
11/ The result would be a more unequal country, and also a more culturally divided one, regionally and at smaller scales–call it a jurisprudence of cultural balkanization, married to a jurisprudence of right-wing federalism.
This is, in short, a neo-Confederate vision of America, balkanized beyond all belief and perpetually ruled by an insular minority, whatever temporary victories a majority might win in any given election cycle. That is what the GOP’s ideological politics are leading us toward. It’s not quite “The Handmaid’s Tale,” but it’s “Handmaid’s Tale”-adjacent.
If we want to avoid that future — not just to win the next election, but to reclaim the promise of American democracy for future generations — the time is long overdue for Democrats to articulate their own ideology, regardless of the very real difficulties in doing so, which Grossmann and Hopkins have discussed in detail, both in their book and in subsequent commentary.
It cannot be an ideology that ignores the coalitional nature of the existing Democratic Party. That’s clearly a non-starter. But it can rearticulate that coalition much more forcefully as a matter of shared values reflected in specific policies — as Bernie Sanders did in 2016, and as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has done this year — rather than transactionally-mediated interests, which is the de facto model for how the party functions today under the leadership of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.
The transactional side of politics will never go away, of course. It’s part of how humans do politics at every level of their lives. But its relative power can be significantly reduced, especially its tendency to serve as a gatekeeper that excludes new voices and new ideas that should be the lifeblood of the Democratic Party in particular and of American democracy more broadly.
Let’s look at the process first. Bernie Sanders broke the mold in 2016, explicitly flaunting the label of “socialist,” even if he was really more of an old-fashioned New Deal Democrat, updated with 21st-century concerns. Ocasio-Cortez doesn’t flaunt the label the same way, nor does she shy away from it. She knows that the power of what she stands for lies in the specifics, in values made concrete — as it always has, since Free and Cantril first articulated the matter, more than 50 years ago. As I wrote here previously, when MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle questioned Ocasio-Cortez on the “label” of socialism, the candidate said it was “a perfectly legitimate concern,” but then pivoted:
“I always go back to how we won this race. And we didn’t win this race with labels,” she said. “We ran this race with our goals and our issues in mind. … At the end of the day most people want to make sure that everyone has health care, most people want to make sure that every child has access to equitable education, to college. And that’s really what we’re talking about.”
Shifting the focus as Ocasio-Cortez does there is vitally important at this moment, but we must also remember that this moment is part of a larger historical process. As people get increasingly comfortable with seeing things this way, then broader, more coherent ideological themes may start to make more sense, especially as it becomes clear that “socialism” in some form is not some elite, intellectual abstraction but has ancient roots found in every culture and every religion, and a profoundly multicultural heritage.
READ MORE: When evangelicals were pro-choice and the NRA was pro-gun control: A history of hypocrisy
This brings us to the second point: that whatever ideology emerges will be pluralistic, forward-looking and empirically grounded. Pluralistic means more than just reflecting multiple group interests. Philosopher William James described it as a fundamental approach to all life, which preserves our sense of agency and possibility, as opposed to monistic philosophies of all stripes. Pluralism respects and even celebrates the fact that no one point of view should be expected to encompass the whole truth on any subject.
In the 2016 campaign, there seemed to be a sharp divide within the party, epitomized by the division between Sanders and Hillary Clinton. But the popularity of the ideas that Sanders advanced — and that his supporters have pushed forward since — has already altered the terrain inside the party, with multiple potential 2020 contenders embracing Medicare for All, the Fight for $15, student debt relief and a universal job guarantee. Most recently, Ocasio-Cortez’s call to abolish ICE has been taken up by Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Elizabeth Warren, with Kamala Harris coming diplomatically close to doing the same.
Even the party establishment itself seems increasingly aware that a profound and necessary change is under way. Consider a recent article in Democracy Journal, “The New Old Democrats,” by Jake Sullivan, an Obama administration alum and senior policy adviser on Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. The subhead said it all: “It’s not the 1990s anymore. People want the government to help solve big problems. Here’s how the Democrats must respond.” Or, as political scientist Corey Robin put it in a tweet this week:
Fascinating from senior Clinton adviser. Concedes Dems, incl. Obama, have been trapped in Reagan time, Sanders was right to break that, Trump and Sanders show we’re heading for realignment. The policy/politics that follows is meh but beside the point. https://t.co/ZlXfL1OJZL
— corey robin (@CoreyRobin) July 13, 2018
Crucially, Sullivan says, “Democrats should not blush too much, or pay too much heed, when political commentators arch their eyebrows about the party moving left. The center of gravity itself is moving, and this is a good thing.”
Beyond the Democratic Party itself, he points out that Trump’s own economically progressive ideas helped gain him the nomination: “Raising taxes on the rich. Investing in infrastructure on a massive scale. Protecting Social Security and Medicare from any cuts. His campaign even floated breaking up the biggest banks. Of course, once in office, Trump has not governed that way — quite the opposite.” He adds, “A January NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll found that 58 percent of registered voters believe the government should do more for the American people, compared with 38 percent who said the government does too much. That is a record high since the question was first asked in 1995.”
That newfound popularity is a good thing, of course. But it shouldn’t be taken for granted. It needs to be strengthened, built on and elaborated, with a realistic view of the power struggles going on in America today. The issue of the Supreme Court vividly illustrates what’s at stake, as the Republican game plan would cripple the ability of that 58 percent majority to get anything at all passed into law. Other recent polls underscore how out-of-step Republicans are with the American people on some key issues. Pew found 55-percent support for the idea that the Supreme Court should interpret the Constitution for “current times,” and Ipsos found “overwhelming majorities” in both parties opposed to the 2010 Citizens United decision striking down campaign finance laws, even surpassing the 63 percent opposed to overturning Roe v. Wade.
There’s a fundamental bait-and-switch quality to the Republican approach that has grown increasingly blatant over time, as MSNBC’s Katy Tur pointed out in a segment this past week highlighting those poll results:
Back when Merrick Garland was nominated by President Obama, Mitch McConnell made the argument that the American people should have a say in this, the American people should decide who they want as the next president, and they should decide, through that person, who gets on the Supreme Court, that was all part of it, the American people have a choice. It seems now the argument is, “No, the American people shouldn’t have a choice, it’s all about the Constitution.” It feels like conservatives are trying to have their cake and eat it too on this issue.
But conservatives are doubly duplicitous. At the same time that they have promised their base voters “protections” against democracy, the official conservative narrative has long been that their judges alone can interpret the law properly: There is only one right way, and they’ve got it.
University of California, Irvine, law professor Richard Hasen, author of “The Justice of Contradictions: Antonin Scalia and the Politics of Disruption,” a nuanced but deeply critical account, captured what’s going on perfectly, this week.
J Kavanaugh, like J Gorsuch, will be more Scalia than Scalia. It is a legacy not only of “originalism” and “textualism” which usually leads to conservative results. It treats other means of interpretation as illegitimate. More on Scalia’s legacy here: https://t.co/gCEY8TlBMF
— Rick Hasen (@rickhasen) July 10, 2018
But you don’t have to read Hasen’s book to get a good read on how questionable Scalia’s approach was. A much shorter text will do the trick: a 2012 review of “Reading Law,” a book Scalia co-authored with appeals court judge Richard Posner — at the time, the most respected conservative legal scholar not on the Supreme Court. Scalia’s Heller decision, found an individual right to own guns in the Second Amendment that everyone else had managed to miss for over 200 years, which is where this all began.
“Reading Law” is Scalia’s response to the widespread criticism of his Heller opinion, and as Posner wrote in “The Incoherence of Antonin Scalia,” it is “unconvincing.” Scalia claims that textual “originalism” provides the only “objective” judicial approach to interpreting the law. But as Posner notes, the argument poses its alternative as “non-originalism,” which is “just a bogeyman,” not something that actually exists. Furthermore, Scalia actually abandons textual originalism by embracing a wide array of other judicial guiding principles, as Posner explained:
A problem that undermines their entire approach is the authors’ lack of a consistent commitment to textual originalism. They endorse fifty-seven “canons of construction,” or interpretive principles, and in their variety and frequent ambiguity these “canons” provide them with all the room needed to generate the outcome that favors Justice Scalia’s strongly felt views on such matters as abortion, homosexuality, illegal immigration, states’ rights, the death penalty, and guns.
In short, what is presented as only way to interpret the law is simply a con used to sell the public on trusting Scalia’s opinions more than their own.
Of course there are other ways to interpret the law—as those fifty-seven “canons of construction” suggest. What makes a true judicial philosophy is a set of principles that gives coherence to the range of choices a judge always has in a given situation. That’s not an easy thing to do in the space of a bumper-sticker slogan.
Not all conservatives lean so heavily on originalism, but almost all find some way to pretend they’re just doing their jobs the only way that’s proper. In his confirmation hearing, Chief Justice John Roberts claimed to be “calling balls and strikes,”— in effect, that he had no guiding legal or judicial philosophy. Legal scholar Ronald Dworkin wrote a scathing article in the New York Review of Books, “Judge Roberts on Trial,” not only criticizing Roberts’ hide-the-ball philosophy, but also highlighting what an honest judicial philosophy can look like:
Justice Stephen Breyer, in his recent book setting out his own constitutional philosophy, offers a more attractive example. He argues that the liberty protected by an appropriate conception of democracy embraces not only a citizen’s freedom from undue government interference but a more active freedom to participate in self-government as an equal; and he undertakes to show that an understanding of the Constitution as aiming to promote that form of liberty can guide constitutional adjudication in several matters, including free speech, federalism, and the constitutionality of affirmative action.
Of course that’s not the only constitutional philosophy a liberal or progressive can have. The Constitution is a balancing act between multiple sorts of good, in an effort to defend against multiple sorts of evil. No single vision of the good can exhaustively account for the whole. We need more than one vision to guide us, because even the best possible vision will leave something out, or undervalue it. We need a plurality of constitutional visions to have any lasting confidence in the robustness of our judiciary to help protect our republic’s future.
But we can’t even begin to discuss such matters if we allow the simplistic BS of conservative judicial narratives to dominate the public square. If Democrats are a coalition-based party, then they need coalition-based ideology to unify them in all they do — including the way they approach the courts. People with specialized backgrounds in protecting and advancing the interests of different coalition members can make invaluable contributions — as did Thurgood Marshall, the legendary founder and lead counsel of the NAACP Legal and Educational Fund, in the struggle to overturn Plessy vs. Ferguson, or Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who argued six gender discrimination cases before the Supreme Court.
It goes without saying that lawyers from such traditions need more than just the skills of advocacy to make good judges, good appeals court justices, good members of the Supreme Court. But the experience and perspectives they gain in struggle and solidarity on the behalf of their clients are vital to preserving the living promise of America for all, rather having it twisted into a crabbed rationale for preserving only the “liberty” of those who already hold most of the power.
Only a pluralistic vision of America can be inclusive enough to offer every American a chance to live his or her dreams. Only a pluralistic vision of American law can safeguard that vision of America. And only a pluralistic political philosophy of positive government action can enable the Democratic Party to achieve those ends — starting with today’s battle for the future of the Supreme Court today.
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